The following lists only preprints without a corresponding final revised paper.
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11 Mar 2025
Review article: Rethinking Preparedness for Coastal Compound Flooding: Insights from a Systematic Review
Dina Vanessa Gomez Rave, Anna Scolobig, and Manuel del Jesus
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-262, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study examines how preparedness strategies for compound flooding in coastal areas are evolving. These events arise from the interaction of drivers such as storm surges, heavy rainfall, and river discharge, amplifying risks for communities. The research highlights advancements in technical, environmental, and social approaches, alongside the role of governance and collaboration. By addressing these complexities, the study identifies pathways to foster resilience.
11 Mar 2025
Insights from hailstorm track analysis in European climate change simulations
Killian P. Brennan, Iris Thurnherr, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-918, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Hailstorms can cause severe damage to homes, crops, and infrastructure. Using high-resolution climate simulations, we tracked thousands of hailstorms across Europe to study future changes. Large hail will become more frequent, hail-covered areas will expand, and extreme hail combined with heavy rain will double. These shifts could increase risks for communities and businesses, highlighting the need for better preparedness and adaptation.
11 Mar 2025
Nationwide Application of a Rapid Tsunami Inundation Model to New Zealand: Assessing Infrastructure and Land Exposure
Tate Kimpton, Colin Whittaker, Pablo Higuera, and Liam Wotherspoon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3724, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This research assesses tsunami exposure across New Zealand using detailed inundation maps for various tsunami scenarios. An efficient and accurate model highlights both urban centres and provincial regions as highly exposed, with significant impacts on buildings, infrastructure, and land. The findings provide critical understanding to help communities and decision-makers better plan for tsunamis, offering valuable insights for improving resilience and protecting assets nationwide.
10 Mar 2025
Increasing flood risk in the Indian Ganga Basin: A perspective from the night-time lights
Ekta Aggarwal, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Kartikeya S. Sangwan, Rajiv Sinha, Sophie Buijs, Ranjay Shrestha, Sanjeev Gupta, and Alexander C. Whittaker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3901, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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The occurrence of frequent floods in recent years due to changing weather, heavy rainfall, and the natural landscape, has caused major damage to lives and property. This study looks at flood risks in the Ganga Basin, focusing on the factors that cause floods, the areas affected, and the vulnerability of people. The study uses NASA's night-time lights to track human activities. This helps to show how risks are connected to expanding human activities, and changing resilience to floods.
10 Mar 2025
Debris Flow Susceptibility in the Jinsha River Basin, China: A Bayesian Assessment Framework Based on Geomorphodynamic Parameters
Zhenkui Gu, Xin Yao, and Xuchao Zhu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4164, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Debris flow susceptibility was assessed using erosion intensity, connectivity, and erodibility; A Bayesian model integrated precipitation and surface conditions to evaluate debris flow risks; Quantitative metrics elucidated debris flow likelihood across diverse spatiotemporal scales; The model accurately predicted a recent debris flow event, validating its disaster assessment.
10 Mar 2025
Estimating future wildfire burnt area over Greece using the JULES-INFERNO model
Anastasios Rovithakis, Eleanor Burke, Chantelle Burton, Matthew Kasoar, Manolis G. Grillakis, Konstantinos D. Seiradakis, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-274, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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JULES-INFERNO captures observed burned area across Greece fairly well for the present-day. Drastic future changes in burnt area in Eastern continental and southern Greece, especially under severe climate change scenarios. Static vegetation leads to larger burnt area compared to dynamic vegetation due to the lower concentration of flammable needleleaf trees.
10 Mar 2025
Automated urban flood level detection based on flooded bus dataset using YOLOv8
Yanbin Qiu, Xudong Zhou, Jiaquan Wan, Tao Yang, Lvfei Zhang, Yuanzhuo Zhong, Leqi Shen, and Xinwu Ji
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4053, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Floods pose a significant risk to cities, so fast and accurate information is essential for disaster management. This study used social media images to assess flood levels by analyzing submerged buses, a reliable reference object. An advanced AI model (YOLOv8) trained on different datasets achieved high flood detection accuracy. The results provide a scalable solution for real-time flood monitoring, enhancing urban transportation safety, and supporting emergency planning.
10 Mar 2025
An Updated, Homogeneous, and Declustered Earthquake Catalog for South Korea and Neighboring Regions
Soumya Kanti Maiti and Byungmin Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-197, 2025
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A unified earthquake catalog for South Korea and its surroundings was developed, containing 63,298 events. Four declustering methods including Gardner-Knopoff, Reasenberg, Uhrhammer, and Marsan were compared to identify the mainshocks. The catalog offers a reliable database for seismic hazard assessments and seismotectonic studies. It fills gaps in previous studies, providing up-to-date catalog for accurate seismic risk assessment and future earthquake forecasting in the region.
06 Mar 2025
Extreme precipitation and flooding in Berlin under climate change and effects of selected grey and blue-green measures
Franziska Tügel, Katrin M. Nissen, Lennart Steffen, Yangwei Zhang, Uwe Ulbrich, and Reinhard Hinkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-445, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study examines how extreme rainfall in Berlin, Germany, may intensify due to global warming and how that could worsen flooding in a selected part of the city. We assess the role of the drainage system, infiltration from unsealed surfaces, and a potential adaptation scenario with all roofs as retention roofs in reducing flooding under extreme rainfall. Combining climate and hydrodynamic simulations, we provide insights into future challenges and possible solutions for urban flood management.
06 Mar 2025
Invited perspective: Redefining Disaster Risk: The Convergence of Natural Hazards and Health Crises
Nivedita Sairam and Marleen de Ruiter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-920, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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This paper highlights gaps in disaster risk assessments, particularly regarding disease outbreaks after natural hazards. It calls for: 1) learning from compound risk models to understand disaster and disease probabilities, 2) including health metrics in risk frameworks, and 3) improving data and modeling for health impacts. The authors propose a research agenda to enhance disaster risk management.
06 Mar 2025
Review article: Stocktaking of methods for assessing dynamic vulnerability in the context of flood hazard research
Julius Schlumberger, Tristian Stolte, Helena Margaret Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Wiebke Jäger, Philip Ward, Marleen de Ruiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Annegien Tijssen, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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The risk flood of flood impacts is dynamic as society continuously responds to specific events or ongoing developments. We analyzed 28 studies that assess such dynamics of vulnerability. Most research uses surveys and basic statistics data, while integrated, flexible models are seldom used. The studies struggle to link specific events or developments to the observed changes. Our findings highlight needs and possible directions towards a better assessment of vulnerability dynamics.
05 Mar 2025
Characteristics and disaster implications of offshore active faults around Nan'ao Island, the northern South China Sea
Hu Yi, Wenhuan Zhan, Xiaodong Yang, Jian Li, Xiaochuan Wu, Jie Sun, Yantao Yao, Jiaxian Huang, and Zelong Ju
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-170, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-170, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study utilized the shipborne sparker source mini-multichannel reflection seismic method to investigate the fault activity in the Nan'ao Island offshore segment of the northern South China Sea. The results indicate that the formation of submarine terraces in this area is caused by the most recent activity of the littoral fault, a discovery considered significant evidence of seismic activity. Accordingly, the study proposes a new model of normal fault seismogenesis for the region.
04 Mar 2025
Climate change impacts on floods in West Africa: New insight from two large-scale hydrological models
Serigne Bassirou Diop, Job Ekolu, Yves Tramblay, Bastien Dieppois, Stefania Grimaldi, Ansoumana Bodian, Juliette Blanchet, Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, Peter Salamon, and Benjamin Sultan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-130, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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West Africa is very vulnerable to rivers floods. Current flood hazards are poorly understood due to limited data. This study is filling this knowledge gap using recent databases and two regional hydrological models to analyze changes in flood risk under two climate scenarios. Results show that most areas will see more frequent and severe floods, with some increasing by over 45 %. These findings stress the urgent need for climate-resilient strategies to protect communities and infrastructure.
03 Mar 2025
Review article: Harnessing Machine Learning methods for climate multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment
Davide Mauro Ferrario, Marcello Sanò, Margherita Maraschini, Andrea Critto, and Silvia Torresan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-670, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This review explores how Machine Learning (ML) can advance multi-hazard and multi-risk going through four main themes: data processing, hazard prediction, risk assessment, and future climate scenarios. It shows how ML is widely used for Earth observations and climate data processing, with Deep Learning applied for hazard prediction and ensemble ML methods for risks, and how future research moving towards analysis of multi-hazard interactions, dynamic vulnerability and early warning systems.
28 Feb 2025
Identifying urban settlement archetypes: clustering for enhanced multi-risk exposure and vulnerability analysis
Gabriella Tocchi, Massimiliano Pittore, and Maria Polese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-908, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-908, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study identifies different types of urban areas in Italy based on population, location, and economic conditions to understand their vulnerability to risks. Using public data and clustering methods, it defines 18 urban archetypes. These archetypes provide a structured understanding of urban vulnerability, helping policymakers assess disaster risk, allocate adaptation funding, and design targeted resilience strategies for urban settlements at regional and national scales.
28 Feb 2025
Modeling and observing the Lake Albano dynamics
Anita Grezio, Damiano Delrosso, Marco Anzidei, Marco Bianucci, Giovanni Chiodini, Antonio Costa, Antonio Guarnieri, Marina Locritani, Silvia Merlino, Filippo Muccini, Marco Paterni, Dmitri Rouwet, Giancarlo Tamburello, and Georg Umgiesser
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-286, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Volcanic lakes have been recognized as a rare but devastating source of disasters after the limnic eruption of Lake Nyos in 1986. The potential risk of Lake Albano (20 km southeast of the centre of Rome, Italy) is due to exposed elements (people presence, economic and touristic activities). The 3D modelling of the lake dynamics is crucial to investigate the lake stratification and degassing and the current and future behavior and stability of Lake Albano.
27 Feb 2025
Forecasting agricultural drought: the Australian Agriculture Drought Indicators
Andrew Schepen, Andrew Bolt, Dorine Bruget, John Carter, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Zvi Hochman, Neal Hughes, Chris Sharman, Peter Tan, and Peter Taylor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4129, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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The success of agricultural enterprises is affected by climate variability and other important factors like soil conditions and market prices. We have developed an agricultural drought forecasting system to help drought analysts and policymakers more accurately identify communities that are enduring financial stress. By coupling climate forecasts and agricultural models, we can skillfully predict crop yields and farm profits for the coming seasons, which will support proactive responses.
26 Feb 2025
Future intensification of compound and cascading drought and heatwave risks in Europe
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Confidence Duku, Merve Gülveren, Rutger Dankers, and Spyridon Paparrizos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-823, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Drought and heatwave risks in Europe will worsen due to climate change, especially when they occur together or successively. Our study shows that both events will become more frequent and severe across Europe, with even greater increases under high-emission scenarios. In Germany, drought-related economic losses may double, and heatwave deaths could rise ninefold by 2100. These findings stress the urgent need for climate action to reduce future impacts.
26 Feb 2025
Extreme heat and mortality in the State of Rio de Janeiro in the 2023/24 season: attribution to climate change and ENSO
Soledad Collazo, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, and Santiago Beguería
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-792, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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In the 2023/24 season, Rio de Janeiro experienced record-breaking heatwaves linked to climate change and El Niño. Our study shows global warming made these extreme temperatures at least 2°C hotter than in pre-industrial times. Heat-related deaths surged, with climate change contributing to 1 in 3 fatalities during the peak event. Without adaptation, future heatwaves will claim even more lives. This underscores the urgent need for policies to mitigate climate impacts from escalating heat threats.
26 Feb 2025
Insights into tectonic zonation models from the clustering analysis of seismicity in South and South-eastern Spain
David Montiel-López, Antonella Peresan, Elisa Varini, and Sergio Molina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-556, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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South and southeastern Spain has the highest seismicity in the country, but inconsistent fault data limits its use in seismic hazard assessment. This study applies the Nearest-Neighbor algorithm and graph theory to analyse clustering patterns. Two regions (western and eastern) with higher and lower (respectively) clustering complexities are identified. The results suggest alternative seismic zonation models, which could improve seismic hazard assessment.
26 Feb 2025
Rockfall triggering and meteorological variables in the Dolomites (Italian Eastern Alps)
Francesca Noemi Bonometti, Giuseppe Dattola, Paolo Frattini, and Giovanni Battista Crosta
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4122, 2025
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Alpine areas are undergoing the highest change temperature and rainfall intensity that are main rockfall triggering factors. This article proposes a new approach based on the frequency of meteorological variables to comprehend implication between climatic scenarios and rockfall events in the Dolomites. Several climate variables were considered and the outcomes reveal warming rates, reduction in icing and freeze-thaw cycles and anticipation of both starting of summer and of the winter ending.
25 Feb 2025
Modelling the effectiveness of GLOF DRM measures – a case study from the Ala-Archa valley, Kyrgyz Republic
Laura Niggli, Holger Frey, Simon Allen, Nazgul Alybaeva, Christian Huggel, Bolot Moldobekov, and Vitalii Zaginaev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-290, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Glacial lake outburst floods pose significant risks to communities and infrastructure. Our study explores how effective different measures are in reducing such risks. Using numerical modelling, we evaluate three strategies: lowering lake levels, building a deflection dam, and creating a retention basin. We compared their hazard and exposure reduction and their costs and benefits. This offers insights that can improve GLOF risk management worldwide and support better decision-making.
25 Feb 2025
Assessing economic impacts of future GLOFs in Nepal’s Everest region under different SSP scenarios using three-dimensional simulations
Wilhelm Furian and Tobias Sauter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-50, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) continue to threaten high-mountain communities in Nepal. We simulate potential GLOF events from five glacial lakes in the Everest region during the 21st century using a 3D flood model and several breach and SSP scenarios. Large GLOFs could extend over 100 km and inundate 80 to 100 km of roads, 735 to 1,989 houses and between 0.85 and 3.52 km2 of agricultural land. The results help to assess the changing GLOF impacts and support more accurate risk assessments.
25 Feb 2025
Shrinking Lakes, Growing Concerns: Exploring perceptions of lake level decline as a prism for understanding socionatural hazards
Thomas Vogelpohl, Desirée Hetzel, Daniel Johnson, Lena Masch, Jesko Hirschfeld, Thorsten Faas, Peter Feindt, and Jörg Niewöhner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-475, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Groß Glienicker Lake and Sacrower Lake in Berlin-Brandenburg are losing water. This study examined how people perceive associated challenges as well as their willingness and capacities to respond, using interviews, surveys, and workshops. Findings show the issue is not just environmental but deeply socially embedded, requiring more than technical solutions. Viewing hazards like this one as both natural and social can help create better, more adaptive strategies for managing associated risks.
25 Feb 2025
Constitution of a multicentennial multirisk database in a mountainous environment from composite sources: the example of the Vallouise-Pelvoux municipality (Ecrins, France)
Louise Dallons Thanneur, Florie Giacona, Nicolas Eckert, and Philippe Frey
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-761, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-761, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This paper proposes a methodology to develop a long-range multirisk database. Combining scattered pre-existing records and intensive research in historical archives provides a 1600–2020 record of past events in a valley of the French Alps. It goes far beyond any inventory existing in terms of number of events, temporal coverage and detailed description of events characteristics in a mountain context. Spatio-temporal patterns are analysed, opening perspective for multirisk assessment.
25 Feb 2025
Characterizing Soil Moisture Drought Onset and Termination in Europe
Woon Mi Kim and Santos Jose González-Rojí
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Understanding how and when droughts begin and end is crucial for improving predictions and developing effective mitigation strategies. This study investigates the onset and termination of soil moisture droughts in Europe, exploring their duration, seasons of occurrence, and related atmospheric circulation factors. The findings reveal noticeable differences between drought onset and termination, as well as variations in the temporal characteristics across datasets.
21 Feb 2025
Drought Propagation and Ecosystem Resilience in a Peri-Urban Catchment of Berlin-Brandenburg
Polina Franke, Aryan Goswami, and Márk Somogyvári
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-471, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Droughts are intensifying due to climate change, impacting water systems and vegetation. This study analyzed drought effects in the Tegeler Fließ catchment from 2008 to 2021. Groundwater faced severe, prolonged droughts, while surface water recovered faster. Vegetation remained resilient, showing no significant stress. Each site revealed unique drought impacts, emphasizing the need for tailored water management and improved vegetation monitoring.
17 Feb 2025
Indigenous Wisdom in Flash Flood Adaptation and Mitigation: Insights from the Gayo Highlands, Indonesia
Cut Azizah, Cut Ayu Lizar, Sarif Robo, Zuraihan, Isma Arsyani, Muhammad Iqbal, Rambang Muharramsyah, and Ismahadi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3774, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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This study examines the Gayo community’s strategies for adapting to and mitigating flash floods in Indonesia. Using field observations, interviews, and GIS analysis, it highlights practices like river patrolling, reforestation, and stilt house construction. Integrated with modern tools like early warning systems, these methods have prevented flash floods for nearly a decade, emphasizing the importance of combining local wisdom with scientific methods for scalable disaster mitigation.
11 Feb 2025
Brief communication: How extreme was the thunderstorm rain in Vienna on 17 August 2024? A temporal and spatial analysis
Vinzent Klaus, Johannes Laimighofer, and Fabian Lehner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-224, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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On 17 August 2024, a thunderstorm in Vienna led to a record-breaking rainfall of 110 mm in two hours. An analysis of the exceptionally long hourly rain gauge time series (since 1941) estimates this event's return period at 662 years. The extremity of the event is further confirmed by neighbouring weather stations and rain-radar data.
10 Feb 2025
Spatial structures of emerging hot & dry compound events over Europe from 1950 to 2023
Joséphine Schmutz, Mathieu Vrac, Bastien François, and Burak Bulut
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-461, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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In recent years, Europe has faced severe hot and dry events affecting biodiversity, agriculture, and health. Understanding past significant variation in their occurrence is key for adaptation. This paper identifies emerging hotspots in Europe and North Africa. Since the 1970s, the Iberian Peninsula, Maghreb, and Central Europe have seen more frequent events, driven by rising temperature maxima, while Eastern Europe has experienced a decline due to changes in drought.
03 Feb 2025
Modeling wave-vegetation interactions: the impact of seagrass flexibility and seasonal variability
Seimur Shirinov, Ivan Federico, Simone Bonamano, Salvatore Causio, Nicolás Biocca, Viviana Piermattei, Daniele Piazzolla, Jacopo Alessandri, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Giovanni Coppini, Marco Marcelli, and Nadia Pinardi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-321, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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This study explores the impact of submerged vegetation on wave dynamics in vulnerable coastal regions. By incorporating measurements into a numerical model, we estimate the critical role of seagrass as a natural defense system. This research advances understanding of wave-vegetation interactions, achieving a more accurate representation of marine environments while supporting restoration efforts and emphasizing the need to preserve these ecosystems for resilience.
03 Feb 2025
Review Article: Analysis of sediment disaster risk assessment surveys in Brazil: A critical review and recommendations
Thiago Dutra dos Santos and Taro Uchida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, 2025
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Five federal sediment-related disaster risk assessments have been conducted in Brazil, each with distinct objectives and methodologies. To evaluate their effectiveness and identify issues, we analyzed the methods, the outcome data, and reviewed the status of disaster prevention initiatives based on the assessment results. Our findings revealed persistent problems across all methods. Consequently, we recommended improvements to enhance their efficacy and reliability.
03 Feb 2025
Groundwater recharge in Brandenburg is declining – but why?
Till Francke and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-222, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Brandenburg is among the driest federal states in Germany. The low ground water recharge (GWR) is fundamental to both water supply and the support of natural ecosystems. In this study, we show that the decline of observed discharge and groundwater tables since 1980 can be explained by climate change in combination with an increasing leaf area index. Still, simulated GWR rates remain highly uncertain due to the uncertainty of precipitation trends.
03 Feb 2025
Computing Extreme Storm Surges in Europe Using Neural Networks
Tim H. J. Hermans, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, Simon Treu, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anaïs Couasnon, Julius J. M. Busecke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-196, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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We studied the performance of different types of neural networks at predicting extreme storm surges. We found that that performance improves when during model training, events with a lower density are given a higher weight. Additionally, we found that the performance of especially convolutional neural networks approaches that of a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model. This is promising for the application of neural networks to climate model simulations.
03 Feb 2025
Analysis of Long-Term Changes in Extreme Waves in the Northwest Pacific Over the Past 60 Years
Yang-Ming Fan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3954, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Wave height trends in the Northwest Pacific over 60 years were analyzed to estimate design wave heights and assess the resilience of marine structures to extreme waves. Using historical wind data and wave models, this study highlights typhoon-season wave impacts on offshore and coastal areas. Results show higher wave heights in southern and eastern Taiwan, stressing the need for stronger infrastructure. These findings support safer designs to withstand future extreme conditions.
03 Feb 2025
Anatomy of a Flash Flood in a Hyperarid Environment: From Atmospheric Masses to Sediment Dispersal in the Sea
Akos Kalman, Timor Katz, Miklos Vincze, Jake Longenecker, Alysse Mathalon, Paul Hill, and Beverly Goodman-Tchernov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3354, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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Flash floods significantly impact terrestrial and marine systems, yet research tracing their entire path from atmospheric origins to sediment deposition is limited. Our study bridges this gap by analyzing satellite data, meteorological reports, and in-situ floodwater and sediment measurements. Findings reveal links between atmospheric disturbances, flood dynamics, and sediment transport, enhancing understanding of how extreme weather affects hyperarid coastal urbanized areas and marine systems.
03 Feb 2025
Indirect assimilation of radar reflectivity data with an adaptive hydrometer retrieval scheme for the short-term severe weather forecasts
Lixin Song, Feifei Shen, Zhixin He, Dongmei Xu, Aiqing Shu, and Jiajun Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-203, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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When retrieving hydrometeors from reflectivity, there are two methods to allocate hydrometeor types: temperature-based and background hydrometer-dependent schemes. The temperature-based method divides hydrometeor proportions based on the background temperature, while the other scheme calculates average weights of each hydrometeor in various reflectivity intervals from background fields. The blending scheme adaptively combines these methods and is found to improve precipitation forecast accuracy.
03 Feb 2025
Catastrophic beach erosion induced by littoral drift on nearby beach after Samcheok LNG's massive coastal reclamation project
Changbin Lim, Tae Min Lim, and Jung-Lyul Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-176, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-176, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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This paper underscores the importance of assessing changes in nearby shorelines before performing large-scale coastal construction projects, thus providing insights into methods that minimize potential damage. Consequently, this study presented an opportunity to investigate the ramifications of harbor and fishing port development, as well as large-scale reclamation, which can alter wave fields in coastal regions, on rapid and catastrophic erosion issues.
30 Jan 2025
Regional-scale groundwater analysis with dimensionality reduction
Márk Somogyvári, Fabio Brill, Mikhail Tsypin, Lisa Rihm, and Tobias Krueger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4031, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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In this study, we examined regional differences in groundwater behavior in Berlin-Brandenburg. We have developed a novel approach, combining standard groundwater modelling tools such with special data analysis techniques. The presented methodology can help to separate areas with different groundwater behavior from each other, which could be used as a starting point for further analysis.
29 Jan 2025
Cities near volcanoes: Which cities are most exposed to volcanic hazards?
Elinor S. Meredith, Rui Xue Natalie Teng, Susanna F. Jenkins, Josh L. Hayes, Sébastien Biass, and Heather Handley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-219, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-219, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Cities near volcanoes expose populations to hazards. We ranked 1,106 cities by population exposed to volcanoes <100 km, nearest distance, and number of, nearby volcanoes. Bandung ranks highest with ~8 M exposed <30 km of 12 volcanoes. Jakarta leads population exposed <100 km (~38 M). Central America has the highest proportion of city exposure, with San Salvador near 23 volcanoes. We provide a global city exposure perspective, identifying areas for localised mitigation.
28 Jan 2025
Identifying controlling climate factors conducive to water and nitrogen export from agricultural watershed during snowmelt runoff period by using the SWAT model
Qiang Zhao, Dan Chang, Zhenyang Peng, Qian Yao, Jingwei Wu, Chenyao Guo, and Chengeng Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3984, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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This study explored how changes in temperature (T) and rainfall during winter and spring affect snowmelt (SM) and the release of nitrogen (N) into rivers in a farming area of cold region. We monitored river flow and N for two years and used a model to simulate past conditions, and found that colder, longer winters with later SM and more rain during this period led to more river flow. Higher T and more intense rain events after SM favored the release of N.
28 Jan 2025
Brief communication: Hydrological and hydraulic investigation of the extreme September 2024 flood on the Lamone River in Emilia-Romagna, Italy
Alessia Ferrari, Giulia Passadore, Renato Vacondio, Luca Carniello, Mattia Pivato, Elena Crestani, Francesco Carraro, Francesca Aureli, Sara Carta, Francesca Stumpo, and Paolo Mignosa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-216, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Between September 17 and 20, 2024, the Lamone River basin in Northern Italy was hit by extreme precipitations. This study adopts the hydrological model Rhyme and the hydrodynamic model PARFLOOD to simulate the hydrological processes in the watershed and the levee-breach-induced inundation affecting the Traversara village. The close match between the resulting flooded areas and the observed ones shows the capability of these numerical models to support the preparedness for at-risk populations.
28 Jan 2025
Identification of nighttime urban flood inundation extent using deep learning
Jiaquan Wan, Xing Wang, Yannian Cheng, Cuiyan Zhang, Yufang Shen, Fengchang Xue, Tao Yang, and Quan J. Wang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-77, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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Urban flooding is a growing issue in cities, often disrupting daily life, especially at night when floods are harder to detect. This study introduces NWseg, a new deep learning model designed to detect urban flooding at night. Using a dataset of 4,000 nighttime images, we found that NWseg outperforms existing models in accuracy. This research offers a practical solution for real-time flood monitoring, helping improve urban disaster response and management.
28 Jan 2025
Dynamic analysis of drought propagation in the context of climate change and watershed characterization: a quantitative study based on GAMLSS and Copula models
Min Li, Zilong Feng, Mingfeng Zhang, Lijie Shi, and Yuhang Yao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-174, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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The purpose of this study is to analyse the effects of climate change and watershed characteristics on drought transmission. Based on the GAMLSS framework and the Copula model, the probabilities and thresholds for the spread of drought in different seasons are calculated without the influence of climate factors. The results show that the spatio-temporal changes in the spread of drought are influenced by climate change and watershed characteristics.
24 Jan 2025
Review Article: Rainfall‑Induced Landslide Prediction Models, Part I: Empirical-Statistical and Physically Based Causative Thresholds
Kyrillos M. P. Ebrahim, Sherif M. M. H. Gomaa, Tarek Zayed, and Ghasan Alfalah
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4160, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4160, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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Rainfall induced landslides pose increasing risks to lives and infrastructure due to climate change. This study presents a framework for predicting landslides, combining statistical and physically based models. A flowchart demonstrates how large-scale models transition to localized. By analyzing thresholds and model performance, the study highlights the role of artificial intelligence and big data in improving predictions, helping to reduce global landslide risks.
24 Jan 2025
Assessing human-caused wildfire ignition likelihood across Europe
Pere Joan Gelabert, Adrián Jiménez-Ruano, Clara Ochoa, Fermín Alcasena, Johan Sjöström, Christopher Marrs, Luís Mário Ribeiro, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Carmen Bentué Martínez, Emilio Chuvieco, Cristina Vega-Garcia, and Marcos Rodrigues
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-143, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-143, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Wildfires threaten ecosystems and communities across Europe. Our study developed models to predict where and why these ignitions occur in different European environments. We found that weather anomalies and human factors, like proximity to urban areas and roads, are key drivers. Using Machine Learning our models achieved strong predictive accuracy. These insights help design better wildfire prevention strategies, ensuring safer landscapes and communities as fire risks grow with climate change.
22 Jan 2025
Using Network Science to Evaluate Vulnerability of Landslides on Big Sur Coast, California, USA
Vrinda D. Desai, Alexander L. Handwerger, and Karen E. Daniels
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172494370.04413277/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172494370.04413277/v1, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Landslide events occur when soil, rock, and debris on slopes become unstable and move downhill, often triggered by heavy rain that reduces friction. Our research evaluates landslide vulnerability using a method that analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of landslide-prone areas. We've developed a statistical metric to track changing conditions in these regions. This approach can aid in early warning systems, helping communities and authorities take preventive measures and minimize damage.
21 Jan 2025
An automated approach for developing geohazard inventories using news: Integrating NLP, machine learning, and mapping
Aydoğan Avcıoğlu, Ogün Demir, and Tolga Görüm
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-7, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Here we demonstrate an approach for the development of inventories from internet sources to geolocalized geohazard incidents. We created a tool that autonomously gets news, processes it using NLP and machine learning, and maps using Open Street Map. Consequently, we present spatiotemporal inventories for geohazards resulting in a total of 13940 incidents between 1997 and 2023 in Türkiye. Our alternative and easy-to-implement development inventory method aids geohazard management and resilience.
21 Jan 2025
Community-driven natural hazard and physical vulnerability assessment in a disaster-prone urban neighborhood
Alejandro Builes-Jaramillo, Annie E. G. Winson, Emma Bee, Nancy Quirós, Dairo Urán, James Rúa, Luis Alejandro Rivera-Flórez, Camilo Restrepo-Estrada, Ingry Natalia Gómez-Miranda, Claire Dashwood, and João Porto de Albuquerque
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-221, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study addresses data gaps in urban neighborhoods often excluded from official hazard maps by co-developing a vulnerability assessment framework with community researchers in El Pacífico, Medellín. Through participatory methods, we created detailed building-scale hazard maps, improving community planning and advocacy for public interventions. This approach highlights how local knowledge can enhance risk assessments and support disaster risk reduction in marginalized areas.
21 Jan 2025
Comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment in data-scarce regions. A study focused on Burundi
Jess Delves, Kathrin Renner, Piero Campalani, Jesica Piñón, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Maria Belen Benito Oterino, Eduardo Perez, and Massimiliano Pittore
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3445, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This scientific paper presents a multi-hazard risk assessment for Burundi, focusing on flooding, torrential rains, landslides, earthquakes, and strong winds. The study identifies key risk hotspots with estimated economic losses of 92 million USD (2.5 % of GDP). Climate change projections indicate increased precipitation. The paper highlights data limitations and stresses the need for improved hazard models and the consideration of compounding risks in future assessments.
20 Jan 2025
Increased Intensity and Frequency of Global Coastal Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes: Implications for Sea Level Anomalies
Xinlong Zhang, Jiayi Fang, Yue Qin, Weiping Wang, and Ping Shen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3799, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Compound coastal extreme weather like strong winds and heavy rain can induce sea level rise. We studied global data and found that these extreme weather events are linked especially in colder regions. They happen more often and with greater impact than thought. The increased sea levels during these events heighten the risk of coastal flooding. Our research predicts these conditions will worsen throughout this century, emphasizing the need to prepare for more frequent and severe coastal weather.
17 Jan 2025
A novel European windstorm dataset based on ERA5 reanalysis from 1940 to present
Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Stefano Tibaldi, Leone Cavicchia, Enrico Scoccimarro, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin Hodges, Vivien Mavel, Mattia Almansi, Chiara Cagnazzo, and Samuel Almond
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4157, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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We introduce a new dataset of European windstorms linked to extratropical cyclones, spanning whole ERA5 reanalysis period (1940–present). Developed under Copernicus Climate Change Service, the dataset provides standardized, high-quality information on windstorm tracks and footprints for industries like insurance and risk management. Preliminary findings show an increase in cold-season windstorms and their impacts in parts of Europe. Tracking methods contribute to uncertainties in key statistics.
15 Jan 2025
Improving Forest Damage Detection and Risk Assessment from Winter Storms Using High-Resolution Satellite Data and Environmental Drivers
Kirill Korznikov, Dmitriy Kislov, Jiří Doležal, and Jan Altman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-217, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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This study investigates the factors behind forest damage caused by extreme winter storm events. By combining satellite data and machine learning, we identified areas affected by the storm and assessed the risk of future disturbances. We found that snow accumulation on coniferous trees was a major cause of damage, with mixedwood forests being particularly vulnerable. Our research helps improve our understanding of forest vulnerabilities to extreme weather events.
15 Jan 2025
Flood exposure in Rotterdam’s unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150: sensitivities to urban development, sea level rise and adaptation
Cees Oerlemans, Martine van den Boomen, Ties Rijcken, and Matthijs Kok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2910, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study analyzes flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150, exploring the interplay between rising sea levels, urban development, and flood protection measures. Without measures, flood exposure will increase, especially after 2100. The Maeslant storm surge barrier had the most impact on flood exposure, followed by urban development and sea level rise. Varied exposure levels across neighborhoods suggest the need for localized adaptation strategies.
09 Jan 2025
The Parraguirre ice-rock avalanche 1987, semi-arid Andes, Chile – A holistic revision
Johannes Jakob Fürst, David Farías-Barahona, Thomas Bruckner, Lucia Scaff, Martin Mergili, Santiago Montserrat, and Humberto Peña
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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The 1987 Parraguirre ice-rock avalanche developed into a devastating debris-flow causing loss of many lives and inflicting severe damage near Santiago, Chile. Here, we revise this event combining various observational records with modelling techniques. In this year, important snow cover coincided with warm days in spring. We further quantify the total solid volume, and forward important upward corrections for the trigger and flood volumes. Finally, river damming was key for high flow mobility.
08 Jan 2025
Critical Evaluation of Strong Ground Motions in Izmir and Implications for Future Earthquake Simulation Results
Sahin Caglar Tuna
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3488, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Given the city's dense population and economic importance, a critical evaluation of the ground motion characteristics during earthquakes is essential for improving preparedness and urban resilience. The study concludes with recommendations on refining seismic hazard models to account for local site effects and these findings have implications for earthquake-resistant design and site-specific seismic risk mitigation strategies.
02 Jan 2025
BN-FLEMO∆: A Bayesian Network-based Flood Loss Estimation Model for Adaptation Planning in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Nivedita Sairam, Lukas Schoppa, Le Thanh Sang, Do Ly Hoai Tan, and Heidi Kreibich
External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172081523.38063336/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172081523.38063336/v1, 2025
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) faces severe flood risks from climatic and socio-economic changes, requiring effective adaptation solutions. Flood loss estimation is crucial, but advanced probabilistic models addressing key drivers and uncertainty are lacking. This study presents a probabilistic flood loss model with a feature selection paradigm for HCMC’s residential sector. Experiments using new survey data from flood-affected households demonstrate the model's superior performance.
20 Dec 2024
Monitoring agricultural and economic drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI)
Neal Hughes, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Andrew Schepen, Peter Tan, Geoffrey Brent, Andrew Turner, Sean Bellew, Wei Ying Soh, Christopher Sharman, Peter Taylor, John Carter, Dorine Bruget, Zvi Hochman, Ross Searle, Yong Song, Heidi Horan, Patrick Mitchell, Yacob Beletse, Dean Holzworth, Laura Guillory, Connor Brodie, Jonathon McComb, and Ramneek Singh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3731, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Droughts can impact agriculture and regional economies, and their severity is rising with climate change. Our research introduces a new system, the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI), which measures droughts based on their effects on crops, livestock, and farm profits rather than traditional weather metrics. Using climate data and modelling, AADI predicts drought impacts more accurately, helping policymakers prepare and respond to financial and social challenges during droughts.
17 Dec 2024
Geophysical fingerprint of the 4–11 July 2024 eruptive activity at Stromboli volcano, Italy
Luciano Zuccarello, Duccio Gheri, Silvio De Angelis, Riccardo Civico, Tullio Ricci, and Piergiorgio Scarlato
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3773, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 7 comments)
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On July 11, 2024, Stromboli erupted violently, generating a volcanic ash column and pyroclastic flows along the Sciara del Fuoco. The event followed intense explosions, ongoing lava flows, and crater rim collapses. A multiparametric analysis using seismo-acoustic, and drone data was conducted to reconstruct the eruption's key features, estimate material loss, and document summit morphology changes, aiming to improve understanding of eruption processes and enhance forecasting and risk management.
17 Dec 2024
Characterisation and modelling of lightning strikes as point events in time and space
Uldis Zandovskis, Davide Pigoli, and Bruce D. Malamud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2733, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study looks at how lightning strikes happen over time and space, focusing on six storms in the UK during 2012 and 2015. By using real data, the research examines how often lightning strikes occur, how fast the storms move, and how far the strikes spread. The storms had different speeds (47–111 km/h) and times between strikes (0.01 to 100 seconds), with strikes spreading up to 80 km. The study’s findings help create models to better characterise severe storms.
12 Dec 2024
Brief Communication: A new drought monitoring network in the state of Brandenburg (Germany) using cosmic-ray neutron sensing
Daniel Altdorff, Maik Heistermann, Till Francke, Martin Schrön, Sabine Attinger, Albrecht Bauriegel, Frank Beyrich, Peter Biró, Peter Dietrich, Rebekka Eichstädt, Peter Martin Grosse, Arvid Markert, Jakob Terschlüsen, Ariane Walz, Steffen Zacharias, and Sascha E. Oswald
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3848, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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The German federal state of Brandenburg is particularly prone to soil moisture droughts. To support the management of related risks, we introduce a novel soil moisture and drought monitoring network based on cosmic-ray neutron sensing technology. This initiative is driven by a collaboration of research institutions and federal state agencies, and it is the first of its kind in Germany to have started operation. In this brief communication, we outline the network design and share first results.
12 Dec 2024
Elevating Flash Flood Prediction Accuracy: A Synergistic Approach with PSO and GA Optimization
Duc-Vinh Hoang and Yuei-An Liou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-215, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This paper presents a pioneering study using GIS, remote sensing, and machine learning to predict flash flood susceptibility in mountainous areas of Vietnam. It optimizes machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting, with Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm. The hybrid models, particularly PSO-XGB, GA-XGB, and GA-RF, significantly improve flood prediction and provide valuable insights for similar regions globally.
12 Dec 2024
Tracing online flood conversations across borders: A watershed level analysis of geo-social media topics during the 2021 European flood
Sébastien Dujardin, Dorian Arifi, Sebastian Schmidt, Catherine Linard, and Bernd Resch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3255, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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Our research explores how social media can help understand public responses to floods, focusing on the 2021 Western European flood. By analysing flood-related topics on social media, we found that conversations varied depending on the location and impact of the flood, with in-disaster concerns emerging in severely affected upstream areas and post-disaster discussions in less affected regions. This shows the potential of social media for better disaster coordination along border crossing rivers.
05 Dec 2024
Capture of near-critical debris flows by flexible barriers: an experimental investigation
Miao Huo, Stéphane Lambert, Firmin Fontaine, and Guillaume Piton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3575, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 5 comments)
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The presented study mainly describes the loading on a flexible barrier at rest in order that the static component of the force exerted by the dead zone received limited attention up to now. Four interaction modes are identified from a gentle flow stopping to high granular jump and/or overtopping. Interestingly, overflow resulted in a significant increase in the residual load and were almost twice that observed in the absence of overflow.
04 Dec 2024
A Pathways Analysis Dashboard prototype for multi-risk systems
Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3655, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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This study presents a dashboard to help decision-makers manage risks in a changing climate. Using interactive visualizations, it simplifies complex choices, even with uncertain information. Tested with 54 users of varying expertise, it enabled accurate responses to 71–80 % of questions. Users valued its scenario exploration and detailed data features. While effective, the guidance and set of visualizations could be extended and the prototype could be adapted for broader applications.
03 Dec 2024
Physics-based forecast modelling of rip-current and shore-break wave hazards
Bruno Castelle, Jeoffrey Dehez, Jean-Philippe Savy, Sylvain Liquet, and David Carayon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-168, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This paper introduces two new, simple, physics-based hazard forecast models of rip current and shore-break waves, which are the two primary natural hazards beachgoers expose themselves to in the surf zone. These models, which depend on a limited number of free parameters, accurately predict rip-current and shore-break wave hazard levels, including their modulation by tide elevation and incident wave conditions, opening new perspectives to forecast multiple surf-zone hazards on sandy beaches.
03 Dec 2024
Brief communication: Visualizing uncertainties in landslide susceptibility modeling using bivariate mapping
Matthias Schlögl, Anita Graser, Raphael Spiekermann, Jasmin Lampert, and Stefan Steger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-213, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Communicating uncertainties is a crucial yet challenging aspect of spatial modelling – especially in applied research, where results inform decisions. In disaster risk reduction, susceptibility maps for natural hazards guide planning and risk assessment, yet their uncertainties are often overlooked. We present a new type of landslide susceptibility map that visualizes both susceptibility and associated uncertainty, alongside guidelines for creating such maps using free and open-source software.
02 Dec 2024
Is It Feasible to Use a Single Remote Sensing Optical Water Index for Rapid Mapping of Water Resources?
Yuqing Wang, Yijie Ma, Tingsong Gong, Xueyue Liang, Yaochen Qin, Haifeng Tian, Jie Pei, and Li Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-214, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Optical Water Body Index (OWI) In this paper, we study the monitoring potential of 12 kinds of OWIs in different water environments of the world in order to better understand the global water system, fast, accurate and highly automated water body map provides theoretical and technical support.
02 Dec 2024
Implementation of an interconnected fault system in PSHA, example on the Levant fault
Sarah El Kadri, Celine Beauval, Marlene Brax, and Yann Klinger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-184, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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Seismic hazard evaluation is required for establishing earthquake-resistant building codes. Our aim is to improve the quantification of seismic hazard in the Levant by including our knowledge on how faults may be interconnected. We build an earthquake forecast by redistributing the energy stored in the fault system over all possible earthquake ruptures. This interconnected fault model leads to seismic hazard maps where hazard is as high on secondary fault branches as on main branches.
29 Nov 2024
Quantifying economic risks to dairy farms from volcanic hazards in Taranaki, New Zealand
Nicola J. McDonald, Leslie Dowling, Emily P. Harvey, Alana M. Weir, Mark S. Bebbington, Nam Bui, Christina Magill, Heather M. Craig, Garry W. McDonald, Juan Monge, Shane J. Cronin, Thomas M. Wilson, and Duncan Walker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3619, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We quantify future economic impacts of volcanic events for dairy farms in Taranaki, New Zealand. The model we develop could be applied to other hazard and agricultural land use contexts. To address uncertainty, 10,000 possible volcanic futures are simulated, and results are collated in risk-type metrics and data visualisations. The results highlight variation in risk exposure across the farms and that volcanic risk could play an important future role in shaping Taranaki’s dairy sector.
29 Nov 2024
Identification of hydro-meteorological drivers for low greenness events in Europe
Pauline Rivoire, Sonia Dupuis, Antoine Guisan, Pascal Vittoz, and Daniela I. V. Domeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3482, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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Our study investigates the conditions in temperature, precipitation, humidity, and soil moisture leading to the browning of the European forests in summer. Using a Random Forest model and satellite measurement of vegetation greenness, we identify key conditions that predict forest damage. We conclude that hot and dry conditions in spring and summer are adverse conditions, in particular for broad-leaved trees. The hydro-meteorological conditions during the preceding year can also have an impact.
28 Nov 2024
Econometric Modelling for Estimating Direct Flood Damage to Firms: A Local-Scale Approach Using Post-Event Records in Italy
Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3017, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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This study estimates flood direct damage to businesses in Italy using 812 damage records from five riverine flood case studies. A multiple regression model predicts economic damage based on business size, water depth, and economic sectors. The results show that damage increases non-proportionally with firm size, while water depth mainly affects stock damage. Healthcare, commercial, and manufacturing sectors are most vulnerable to building, stock, and equipment damage, respectively.
25 Nov 2024
Is higher resolution always better? Open-access DEM comparison for Slope Units delineation and regional landslide prediction
Mahnoor Ahmed, Giacomo Titti, Sebastiano Trevisani, Lisa Borgatti, and Mirko Francioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-211, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Elevation models are compared with a true dataset for terrain characteristics which selects a better ranking model to test with different parameters for partitioning the terrain. The partitioning of the terrain is measured by how well a partitioned unit can support the mapped landslide area and number of landslides. The effect of this relationship is reflected with different metrics in the susceptibility maps.
25 Nov 2024
Brief Communication: Investigating trends in European hailstorm damage using CMIP6-DAMIP climate models
Stephen Cusack and Tyler Cox
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-210, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Warming seas have been driving greater hailstorm risk in Europe over the past few decades. Modern climate models indicate anthropogenic aerosols caused the observed cooling of seas from about 1900 to the 1970s, while the recent rapid warming is mostly explained by rising greenhouse gases. Current trends in anthropogenic forcing are likely to persist, suggesting seas will continue warming, and hailstorm risk over Europe will continue rising over the next couple of decades, at least.
19 Nov 2024
Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: Data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms as related to recent morpho-climatic evolution and possible trigger factors
Roberto Giovanni Francese, Roberto Valentino, Wilfried Haeberli, Aldino Bondesan, Massimo Giorgi, Stefano Picotti, Franco Pettenati, Denis Sandron, Gianni Ramponi, and Mauro Valt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-212, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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The deadly collapse of the Marmolada Glacier in Italy in July 2022, is part of a global trend of rapid glacial retreat due to climate change. The event was influenced by permafrost degradation and abnormal warming. Historical data, geophysical surveys, and numerical simulations were used to analyze the collapse. Ice fracturing, water infiltration, and basal lubrication were key contributors. Predicting glacier instability is rather complex but monitoring is vital to cope with the hazard.
19 Nov 2024
Impacts of Barrier-Island Breaching on Mainland Flooding During Storm Events applied to Moriches, NY
Catherine Renae Jeffries, Robert Weiss, Jennifer L. Irish, and Kyle Mandli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2929, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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Barrier islands are important to their adjacent mainland coastline. Breaching of barrier islands creates a channel of water between the ocean and bay and increases the storm surge along the mainland coast. To examine how breaching impacts the coast we simulated a hurricane and varied the number, locations, and sizes of different breaches. We learned that total breach area directly impacts coastal flooding, and breach locations are an important predictor of flooding.
18 Nov 2024
Improving Pluvial Flood Simulations with Multi-source DEM Super-Resolution
Yue Zhu, Paolo Burlando, Puay Yok Tan, Christian Geiß, and Simone Fatichi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-207, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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This study addresses the challenge of accurately predicting floods in regions with limited terrain data. By utilizing a deep learning model, we developed a method that improves the resolution of digital elevation data by fusing low-resolution elevation data with high-resolution satellite imagery. This approach not only substantially enhances flood prediction accuracy, but also holds potential for broader applications in simulating natural hazards that require terrain information.
18 Nov 2024
Seismic Signal Classification of Snow Avalanches using Distributed Acoustic Sensing in Grasdalen, Western Norway
Franz Kleine, Charlotte Bruland, Andreas Wüstefeld, Volker Oye, and Martin Landrø
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-202, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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We used a fiber optic cable along a road in western Norway to study snow avalanches signals. Our study shows that avalanches create distinct signals in the 20–50 Hz frequency range, with larger ones having weak early warning signals. However, road traffic interference complicates automatic detection. This research highlights the potential of using existing infrastructure for avalanche monitoring. Further improvements are needed for automated detection.
14 Nov 2024
Is considering runs (in)consistency so useless for weather forecasting?
Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By focusing on the persistence of weather scenarios over successive forecasts, we found that it significantly affects the reliability of forecasts.
14 Nov 2024
Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on annual spatio-temporal lightning clusters in western and central Europe
Markus Augenstein, Susanna Mohr, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2804, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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A grid-based analysis of lightning in Europe shows a reduction in thunderstorm activity in many regions. Moving away from a grid-based analysis, a spatio-temporal clustering algorithm was used. The results show a slight trend towards the occurrence of smaller, more separated convective clustered events, suggesting changes in the organization of convective systems. One reason for this could be the increased occurrence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the last decade.
13 Nov 2024
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-183, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
11 Nov 2024
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
08 Nov 2024
Super Typhoons Mangkhut (2018) and Saola (2023) during landfall: comparison and insights for wind engineering practice
Yujie Liu, Yuncheng He, Pakwai Chan, Aiming Liu, and Qijun Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Offshore wind turbines are sensitive to tropical cyclones (TCs). Wind data from Super Typhoons Mangkhut and Saola, impacting South China, are vital for design and operation. Despite Saola's higher intensity, it caused less damage. Both had concentric eyewall structures, but Saola completed an eyewall replacement before landfall, becoming more compact. Mangkhut decayed but affected a wider area. Their wind characteristics provide insights for turbine maintenance and operation.
06 Nov 2024
High-Resolution Data Assimilation for Two Maritime Extreme Weather Events: A comparison between 3DVar and EnKF
Diego Saúl Carrió, Vincenzo Mazzarella, and Rossella Ferretti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-177, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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Populated coastal regions in the Mediterranean are known to be severely affected by extreme weather events that are initiated over maritime regions. These weather events are known to pose a serious problem in terms of numerical predictability. Different Data Assimilation techniques are used in this study with the main aim of enhancing short-range forecasts of two challenging severe weather events.
04 Nov 2024
Reask UTC: a machine learning modeling framework to generate climate connected tropical cyclone event sets globally
Thomas Loridan and Nicolas Bruneau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3253, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk models have been used by the insurance industry to quantify occurrence and severity risk since the 90s. To date these models are mostly built from backward looking statistics and portray risk under a static view of the climate. We here introduce a novel approach, based on machine learning, that allows sampling of climate variability when assessing TC risk globally. This is of particular importance when computing forward looking views of TC risk.
29 Oct 2024
Historical changes in drought characteristics and its impact on vegetation cover over Madagascar
Herijaona Hani-Roge Hundilida Randriatsara, Eva Holtanova, Karim Rizwan, Hassen Babaousmail, Mirindra Finaritra Tanteliniaina Rabezanahary, Kokou Romaric Posset, Donnata Alupot, and Brian Odhiambo Ayugi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-191, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought (duration, frequency, severity, intensity) over Madagascar during 1981–2022 by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3, -6 and -12). Additionally, the impact of drought on vegetation over the studied area was assessed based on the relationship evaluation between SPI and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during 2000–2022.
29 Oct 2024
Real-time Monitoring and Analysis of Debris Flow Events: Insight from seismic signal characteristics
Yan Yan, Cheng Zeng, Renhe Wang, Yifei Cui, Sheng Hu, Xinglu Wang, and Hui Tang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2977, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Debris flow monitoring and early warning is one of the most effective means of disaster prevention. We hope to provide a simple, economical and practical monitoring method for debris flow monitoring and analysis by combining seismic signals and infrared images. This method provides a basis for real-time monitoring, analysis, early warning and hazard assessment of debris flows based on seismic signals.
28 Oct 2024
Untangling the Waves: Decomposing Extreme Sea Levels in a non-tidal basin, the Baltic Sea
Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-198, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-198, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
25 Oct 2024
Automated Rapid Estimation of Flood Depth using Digital Elevation Model and EOS-04 Satellite derived Flood inundation
Lakshmi Amani Chimata, Suresh Babu Anuvala Setty Venkata, Shashi Vardhan Reddy Patlolla, Durga Rao Korada Hari Venkata, Sreenivas Kandrika, and Prakash Chauhan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2278, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Fast flood assessments are important for providing effective help during emergencies and planning for future floods. This study presents a new automated way to quickly measure flood depth. By using satellite images and digital elevation models, this method makes it easier to get real-time flood information. We applied this new method in several flood-prone areas in India and found that it provides more accurate results than existing flood measurement tools.
24 Oct 2024
An Ensemble Random Forest Model for Seismic Energy Forecast
Sukh Sagar Shukla, Jaya Dhanya, Praveen Kumar, Priyanka, and Varun Dutt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-129, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-129, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 5 comments)
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Earthquakes are among the most disastrous natural calamities due to the release of accumulated strain energy from continuous tectonic movements. It has potential of causing havoc both in terms of economic losses and loss of life. This paper presents a methodology to predict the earthquake in terms of seismic energy release for global region using ensembled machine learning technique and then same approach is tested for one of the most seismic active region of the world i.e., Western Himalayas.
21 Oct 2024
Brief communication: Evidence of the impacts of climate extremes on power system outages in India
Jasper Verschuur and Srijith Balakrishnan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3176, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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Electricity systems are prone to climate extremes. Our research combines four years of daily electricity outages data from 370 locations across India with temperature, wind, precipitation and flood inundation data to show how climate extremes affect power services, and how this differs across power systems. This information is key for countries that aim to meet universal access to energy in the coming decades, yet at the same time will experience more frequent and intense climate extremes.
17 Oct 2024
Multi-hazards in Scandinavia: Impacts and risks from compound heatwaves, droughts and wildfires
Gwendoline Ducros, Timothy Tiggeloven, Lin Ma, Anne Sophie Daloz, Nina Schuhen, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3158, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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Our study finds that heatwave, drought and wildfire events occurring simultaneously in Scandinavia are pronounced in the summer months; and the heat-drought 2018 event led to a drop in gross domestic product, affecting agriculture and forestry imports, further impacting Europe’s trade balance. This research shows the importance of ripple effects of multi-hazard, and that forest management and adaptation measures are vital to reducing the risks of heat-related multi-hazards in vulnerable areas.
14 Oct 2024
Accelerating compound flood risk assessments through active learning: A case study of Charleston County (USA)
Lucas Terlinden-Ruhl, Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Gijs G. Hendrickx, Patricia Mares-Nasarre, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-196, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This study develops a conceptual framework that uses active learning to accelerate compound flood risk assessments. A case study of Charleston County shows that the framework achieves faster and more accurate risk quantifications compared to the state-of-the-art. This win-win allows for increasing the number of flooding parameters, which results in an 11.6 % difference in the expected annual damages. Therefore, this framework allows for more comprehensive compound flood risk assessments.
14 Oct 2024
Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight
Laura Schaffer, Andreas Boesch, Johanna Baehr, and Tim Kruschke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We developed a simple yet effective model to predict storm surges in the German Bight, using wind data and a multiple linear regression approach. Trained on historical data from 1959 to 2022, our storm surge model demonstrates high predictive skill and performs as well as more complex models, despite its simplicity. It can predict both moderate and extreme storm surges, making it a valuable tool for future climate change studies.
14 Oct 2024
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland’s electricity grid: Insights from 92 damaging windstorms
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and VIctoria Anne SInclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
11 Oct 2024
Constantly renewing glacial lakes in the Kyrgyz Range, northern Tien Shan
Mirlan Daiyrov and Chiyuki Narama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-160, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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Glacial lakes in the Kyrgyz Range of the northern Tien Shan are monitored due to concern over possible glacial lake outburst floods. To evaluate the status of these lakes, we investigated the number of glacial lakes and the lake area from 1968 to 2021 using Corona KH-4, Landsat (7 to 10), Sentinel-2, and PlanetScope satellite images. We found that the number of glacial lakes increased by 30 % from 417 in 1968 to 543 after 2000. However, 305 of the original 417 glacial lakes vanished by 2000.
10 Oct 2024
Autonomous and efficient large-scale snow avalanche monitoring with an Unmanned Aerial System (UAS)
Jaeyoung Lim, Elisabeth Hafner, Florian Achermann, Rik Girod, David Rohr, Nicholas R. J. Lawrance, Yves Bühler, and Roland Siegwart
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2728, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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As avalanches occur in remote and potentially dangerous locations, data relevant to avalanche monitoring is difficult to obtain. Uncrewed fixed-wing aerial vehicles are promising platforms for gathering aerial imagery to map avalanche activity over a large area. In this work, we present an unmanned aerial system (UAS) capable of autonomously navigating and mapping avalanches in steep mountainous terrain. We expect our work to enable efficient large-scale autonomous avalanche monitoring.
09 Oct 2024
Drought propagation in high-latitude catchments: Insights from a 60-Year Analysis Using Standardized Indices
Claudia Teutschbein, Thomas Grabs, Markus Giese, Andrijana Todorović, and Roland Barthel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2742, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study explores how droughts develop and spread in high-latitude regions, focusing on the unique conditions found in areas like Scandinavia. It reveals that droughts affect soil, rivers, and groundwater differently, depending on factors like land cover, water availability, and soil properties. The findings highlight the importance of tailored water management strategies to protect resources and ecosystems in these regions, especially as climate change continues to impact weather patterns.
09 Oct 2024
Long-term hazard of pyroclastic density currents at Vesuvius (Southern Italy) with maps of impact parameters
Pierfrancesco Dellino, Fabio Dioguardi, Roberto Sulpizio, and Daniela Mele
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2971, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Pyroclastic deposits are the only records left by pyroclastic flows at Vesuvius, deposits from past eruptions are the only way to get hints about the expected range of impact parameters. It is necessary to investigate the deposits first, then define a general model of the current that links deposit characteristics to flow dynamics, and finally reconstruct the impact parameters that better represent flow intensity in terms of damaging potential. This is the way the paper is organized.
09 Oct 2024
Brief Communication: AI-driven rapid landslides mapping following the 2024 Hualien City Earthquake in Taiwan
Lorenzo Nava, Alessandro Novellino, Chengyong Fang, Kushanav Bhuyan, Kathryn Leeming, Itahisa Gonzalez Alvarez, Claire Dashwood, Sophie Doward, Rahul Chahel, Emma McAllister, Sansar Raj Meena, and Filippo Catani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-146, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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On April 2, 2024, a Mw 7.4 earthquake hit Taiwan’s eastern coast, causing extensive landslides and damage. We used automated methods combining Earth Observation (EO) data with Artificial Intelligence (AI) to quickly inventory the landslides. This approach identified 7,090 landslides over 75 km2 within 3 hours of acquiring the EO imagery. The study highlights AI’s role in improving landslide detection and understanding earthquake-landslide interactions for better hazard mitigation.
08 Oct 2024
Brief communication: Comprehensive Resilience to Typhoon Disasters: An Urban Assessment of 27 Cities in Seven Major River Basin, China
Zezhao Liu, Jiahui Yang, and Cong Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2343, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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We construct an indicator-based framework, and assess urban resilience to typhoon in China’s contexts for the seven major river basins. Results verified the heterogeneity, and the resilience level in certain circumstance was not matched with city strength of economy. The analysis is helpful for government to enhance capability of resilience in specific dimensions, and provides a reference in probing urban resilience assessment confronting typhoon.
08 Oct 2024
Reevaluating Flood Protection: Disaster Risk Reduction for Urbanized Alluvial Fans
Tamir Grodek and Gerardo Benito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-171, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Check dams, terraces, and trees on steep basins serve to retain sediments, thereby protecting urbanized alluvial fan canals and levees from flooding. However, their effectiveness gradually decreases over time due to sedimentation and aging, which may lead to catastrophic breaching floods. To enhance urban resilience, we propose preserving natural mountain basins and allocating 20–30 % of the alluvial fan for channel migration and sediment deposition corridors.
08 Oct 2024
Review article: Towards multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators – a review and recommendations for development and implementation
Christopher J. White, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Marcello Arosio, Stephanie Buller, YoungHwa Cha, Roxana Ciurean, Julia M. Crummy, Melanie Duncan, Joel Gill, Claire Kennedy, Elisa Nobile, Lara Smale, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Indicators contain observable and measurable characteristics to understand the state of a concept or phenomenon and/or monitor it over time. There have been limited efforts to understand how indicators are being used in multi-hazard and multi-risk contexts. We find most of existing indicators do not include the interactions between hazards or risks. We propose 12 recommendations to enable the development and uptake of multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators.
07 Oct 2024
Invited perspectives: Thunderstorm Intensification from Mountains to Plains
Jannick Fischer, Pieter Groenemeijer, Alois Holzer, Monika Feldmann, Katharina Schröer, Francesco Battaglioli, Lisa Schielicke, Tomáš Púčik, Christoph Gatzen, Bogdan Antonescu, and the TIM Partners
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2798, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain and in computer simulations in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near mountain ranges, which emphasizes the need to study storms near mountains. This article gives an overview about our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill these knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.
07 Oct 2024
Disaster Management Following the Great Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes in 2023, Türkiye
Bektaş Sari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2538, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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After the earthquake, the Turkish Government mobilized all available resources, ensured regular information updates, and deployed a significant number of rescue personnel to the affected areas. However, the scale of this devastating disaster, resulting in the loss of over 50,000 lives, underscores the critical importance of building earthquake-resistant structures as the most effective means to mitigate such calamities.
07 Oct 2024
Multi-hazard susceptibility mapping in the karst context using a machine-learning method (MaxEnt)
Hedieh Soltanpour, Kamal Serrhini, Joel C. Gill, Sven Fuchs, and Solmaz Mohadjer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1779, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We applied the Maximum Entropy model to characterize multi-hazard scenarios in karst environments, focusing on flood-triggered sinkholes in Val d'Orléans, France. Karst terrains as multi-hazard forming areas, have received little attention in multi-hazard literature. Our study developed a multi-hazard susceptibility map to forecast the spatial distribution of these hazards. The findings improve understanding of hazard interactions and demonstrate the model's utility in multi-hazard analysis.
02 Oct 2024
Applicability and effectiveness of structural measures for subsidence (risk) reduction in urban areas
Nicoletta Nappo and Mandy Korff
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2537, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Cities in coastal and delta areas need effective engineering techniques to contrast subsidence and its damages. This paper presents a framework for choosing these techniques using a decision tree and four performance parameters. This procedure was tested on various cases representative of different scenarios. This demonstrated the potential of this method for initial screenings of techniques, to which site-specific assessment should always follow.
02 Oct 2024
What if extreme droughts occur more frequently? – Mechanisms and limits of forest adaptation in pine monocultures and mixed forests in Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany
Jamir Priesner, Boris Sakschewski, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Sebastian Fiedler, Sarah Bereswill, Kirsten Thonicke, and Britta Tietjen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Our simulations suggest that increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in pine monoculture and mixed forest. Mixed forest eventually recovered, as long as drought frequencies was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broad-leaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth.This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
02 Oct 2024
The 2018–2023 drought in Berlin: impacts and analysis of the perspective of water resources management
Ina Pohle, Sarah Zeilfelder, Johannes Birner, and Benjamin Creutzfeldt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-187, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-187, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Climate change, the lignite mining phase-out, and structural changes challenge Berlin's water resources management. The 2018–2023 drought uniquely impacted temperature, precipitation, groundwater, and surface water. Reduced water availability and rising demand are creating latent water quality problems. Addressing these challenges requires extensive measures in Berlin and its surrounding areas.
01 Oct 2024
Particle and front tracking in experimental and computational avalanche dynamics
Michael Neuhauser, Anselm Köhler, Anna Wirbel, Felix Oesterle, Wolfgang Fellin, Johannes Gerstmayr, Falko Dressler, and Jan-Thomas Fischer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-164, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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This study examines how particles move in snow avalanches. The researchers used AvaNodes, a sensor system that tracks particle movement, in combination with radar data and simulations from the open avalanche framework AvaFrame. By comparing measurements and simulations, particle velocity and avalanche front position were matched with high accuracy. The study illustrates how multiple parameter sets can yield appropriate results and highlights the complexity of avalanche simulation.
30 Sep 2024
Brief Communication: Bridging the data gap – enhancing the representation of global coastal flood protection
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-137, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection is limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTPROS-EU, which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
30 Sep 2024
Climate Change and Farmer Livelihoods in Wayanad, India: A Livelihood Vulnerability Index Assessment
Nikhil Kumbrottil Sundaran, Aparna Radhakrishnan, Dileepkumar Ravindran, Binoo Palackal Bonny, and Navitha Vijayan Nandini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-155, 2024
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
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Farmers in Wayanad district households face severe challenges from climate change, particularly floods and droughts. Factors like family unemployment, agriculture, and age extremes increase vulnerability. Education, income, and access to credit are key for adaptive capacity. Wayanad's high vulnerability necessitates urgent, specific interventions for its farmers.
27 Sep 2024
Extreme blocking ridges are associated with large wildfires in England
Kerryn Little, Dante Castellanos-Acuna, Nicholas Kettridge, Mike Flannigan, and Piyush Jain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-161, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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We demonstrate the importance of Persistent Positive Anomalies in 500 hPa Geopotential Heights (PPAs) for fire weather and wildfires in a temperate, emerging fire prone region using comprehensive wildfire occurrence records. PPAs become increasingly important for larger wildfires and are most important for heathland/moorland and grassland wildfires. Our findings demonstrate the potential of synoptic indicators for extending forecasting tools to aid wildfire preparedness and management.
25 Sep 2024
Forecasting avalanche danger: human-made forecasts vs. fully automated model-driven predictions
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Ross S. Purves, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-158, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We evaluate fully data- and model-driven predictions of avalanche danger in Switzerland and compare them with human-made avalanche forecasts as a benchmark. We show that model predictions perform similarly to human forecasts calling for a systematic integration of forecast chains into the forecasting process.
25 Sep 2024
Review article: The growth in compound weather events research in the decade since SREX
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
24 Sep 2024
Topographic controls on landslide mobility: Modeling hurricane-induced landslide runout and debris-flow inundation in Puerto Rico
Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, Collin Cronkite-Ratcliff, and Jonathan P. Perkins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-141, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Landslide runout zones are the areas downslope or downstream of landslide initiation. People often live and work in these areas, leading to property damage and deaths. We develop methods to identify potential runout zones from landslides. We apply our methods to create susceptibility maps for three study areas in Puerto Rico and assess the success of our methods based on mapped landslides from Hurricane Maria.
24 Sep 2024
Disentangling Atmospheric, Hydrological, and Coupling Uncertainties in Compound Flood Modeling within a Coupled Earth System Model
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
23 Sep 2024
Temporal persistence of postfire flood hazards under present and future climate conditions in southern Arizona, USA
Tao Liu, Luke A. McGuire, Ann M. Youberg, Charles J. Abolt, and Adam L. Atchley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-151, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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After a fire, soil infiltration decreases, increasing flash flood risks, worsened by intense rainfall from climate change. Using data from a burned watershed in Arizona and a hydrological model, we examined postfire soil changes under medium and high emissions scenarios. Results showed soil infiltration increased sixfold from the first to third postfire year. Both scenarios suggest that rainfall intensification will extend high flood risks after fires by late century.
20 Sep 2024
The dynamics of peak head responses at Dutch canal dikes and the impact of climate change
Bart Strijker and Matthijs Kok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1495, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study examines how hydraulic head levels in canal dikes respond to heavy rainfall, potentially causing instabilities and flooding. Using time series models and simulating long-term head levels, we identified clusters of dikes where head peaks are driven by similar rainfall events. Statistical analyses show that extreme and yearly conditions are close. However, extreme conditions are expected to become more frequent due to climate change, though some dikes will be less affected than others.
19 Sep 2024
Sectoral Vulnerability to Drought: Exploring the Role of Blue and Green Water Dependency in Mid and High-Latitudes
Elin Stenfors, Malgorzata Blicharska, Thomas Grabs, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2726, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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Utilizing a survey including respondents from seven societal sectors, the role of water dependency for drought vulnerability was explored. Differences were found in the perceived impact of vulnerability factors on drought risk in relation to water dependency (i.e., dependency on either soil moisture, or groundwater and surface water). The results highlight the importance of accounting for water dependency, and to clearly define the drought hazard, in drought vulnerability or risk assessments.
19 Sep 2024
Derivation of Moisture-Driven Landslide Thresholds for Northeastern Regions of the Indian Himalayas
Danish Monga and Poulomi Ganguli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-152, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-152, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Using novel statistical methodology, non-crossing quantile regression, we develop at-site and regional rainfall thresholds to trigger landslides in vulnerable sites of the Northeast Himalayas. Next, we analyze the influence of potential environmental controls in mediating the rain thresholds. The findings of the study add value to updating, enhancing, and understanding spatial variability of rain thresholds across landslide-affected areas of the Northeast Himalayas.
18 Sep 2024
Bushfire effects on soil properties and post-fire slope stability: the case of the 2015 Wye River-Jamieson Track bushfire
Yuanying Li, Akihiko Wakai, and Susanga Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-132, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Landslides during rainfall in burned areas have become more frequent and widespread. This paper employs laboratory burning tests to evaluate the effects of bushfires on soil properties and to compare slope stability during rainfall before and after bushfires. These findings enhance the understanding of landslide-triggering mechanisms in post-fire slopes and provide insights for mapping landslide susceptibility in bushfire-prone regions.
18 Sep 2024
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
18 Sep 2024
Coupled GPU-based Modeling of Dynamic-Wave Flow and Solute Transport in Floods with Cellular Automata Framework
Hsiang-Lin Yu and Tsang-Jung Chang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-131, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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A novel Cellular Automata-based solute transport solver (ASTCA) is proposed and found to have higher accuracy than the second-order accuracy finite volume alternative (FV-TVD) but be faster by 3.33 times. It is then coupled with a sophisticated CA-based shallow water flow solver (SWFCA) as a new CA-based coupled approach. The coupled approach can even accelerate up to 74.15 times after GPU parallelization, which is quite satisfactory since the simulations are conducted on a simple PC.
16 Sep 2024
Evaluating Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration flood risk using hybrid method of AutoML and AHP
Yu Gao, Haipeng Lu, Yaru Zhang, Hengxu Jin, Shuai Wu, Yixuan Gao, and Shuliang Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-144, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA), where we determined flood risk assessment indices across different dimensions, including hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. We constructed a flood risk assessment model using AutoML and AHP to examine the spatial and temporal changes in flood risk in the region over the past 30 years (1990 to 2020), aiming to provide a scientific basis for flood prevention and resilience strategies in the YRDUA.
16 Sep 2024
Transformations in Exposure to Debris Flows in Post-Earthquake Sichuan, China
Isabelle Utley, Tristram Hales, Ekbal Hussain, and Xuanmei Fan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2277, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We analysed debris flows in Sichuan, China, using satellite data and simulations to assess check dam efficacy. Our study found whilst check dams can mitigate smaller flows, they may increase exposure to extreme events, with up to 40 % of structures in some areas affected. Urban development and reliance on check dams can create a false sense of security, raising exposure during large debris flows and highlights the need for risk management and infrastructure planning in hazard-prone areas.
09 Sep 2024
Recent Baltic Sea Storm Surge Events From A Climate Perspective
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events and no clear trend can be identified, often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
06 Sep 2024
An evaluation on the alignment of drought policy and planning guidelines with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda
Ilyas Masih
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-163, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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This study evaluates twelve drought policy and planning guidelines for their alignment with the four priority areas of the SENDAI Framework. The guidelines do not align very well with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda. The study highlights strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, and provides useful insights to develop next generation of drought guidelines.
03 Sep 2024
Recent large inland lake outbursts on the Tibetan Plateau: Processes, causes and mechanisms
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-127, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Glacial lake outbursts have been widely studied, but large inland lake outbursts have received less attention. Recently, with the rapid expansion of inland lakes, signs of potential outbursts have increased. However, the processes, causes, and mechanisms are still not well understood. Here, the outburst processes were investigated using a combination of field surveys, remote sensing mapping, and hydrodynamic modelling. The causes and mechanisms that triggered the two events were investigated.
02 Sep 2024
The 2022 Drought Shows the Importance of Preparedness in European Drought Risk Management
Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Marthe Wens, Marleen Lam, Elin Stenfors, Samuel Sutanto, Elena Ridolfi, Serena Ceola, Pedro Alencar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Monica Ionita, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Scott J. McGrane, Benedetta Moccia, Viorica Nagavciuc, Fabio Russo, Svitlana Krakovska, Andrijana Todorovic, Faranak Tootoonchi, Patricia Trambauer, Raffaele Vignola, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights the crucial role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans in European drought risk management. Based on a survey of water managers during the 2022 European drought, it underscores the impact of preparedness on response and the evolution of drought management strategies across the continent. The study concludes with a plea for a European Drought Directive.
30 Aug 2024
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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We explored the possibility of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Adding mixtures of 3 to 5 amendment types substantially increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion and increased microorganism abundance, while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH.
29 Aug 2024
Measuring extremes-driven direct biophysical impacts in agricultural drought damages
Mansi Nagpal, Jasmin Heilemann, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Klauer, Erik Gawel, and Christian Klassert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2585, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study measures the direct effects of droughts in association with other extreme weather events on agriculture in Germany at district level. Using a statistical yield model, we quantify the direct impact of extremes on crop yields and farm revenues. Extreme events during drought cause an average annual damage of €781 million, accounting for 45 % of reported revenue losses. The insights can help develop better strategies for managing and mitigating the effects of future climate extremes.
27 Aug 2024
Causes, consequences and implications of the 2023 landslide-induced Lake Rasac GLOF, Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru
Adam Emmer, Oscar Vilca, Cesar Salazar Checa, Sihan Li, Simon Cook, Elena Pummer, Jan Hrebrina, and Wilfried Haeberli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2316, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We report in detail the most recent large landslide-triggered glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Peruvian Andes (the 2023 Rasac GLOF), analyze its preconditions, consequences, and the role of changing climate. Our study contibutes to understanding GLOF occurrence patterns in space and time and corroborates increasing frequency of such events in changing mountains.
26 Aug 2024
The grid-level fixed asset model developed for China from 1951 to 2020
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Zhenguo Zhang, Friedemann Wenzel, Shaun Shuxun Wang, and Xiaofei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-138, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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A high-resolution fixed asset model can help improve the accuracy of earthquake loss assessment. We develop a grid-level fixed asset model for China from 1951 to 2020. We first compile the provincial-level fixed asset from yearbook-related statistics. Then, this dataset is disaggregated into 1 km*1 km grids by using multiple remote sensing data as the weight indicator. We find that fixed asset value increased rapidly after the 1980s and reached 589.31 trillion Chinese yuan in 2020.
22 Aug 2024
The ability of a stochastic regional weather generator to reproduce heavy precipitation events across scales
Xiaoxiang Guan, Dung Viet Nguyen, Paul Voit, Bruno Merz, Maik Heistermann, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-143, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We evaluated a multi-site stochastic regional weather generator (nsRWG) for its ability to capture the cross-scale extremity of high precipitation events (HPEs) in Germany. We generated 100 realizations of 72 years of daily synthetic precipitation data. The performance was assessed using WEI and xWEI indices, which measure event extremity across spatio-temporal scales. Results show nsRWG simulates well the extremity patterns of HPEs, though it overestimates short-duration, small-extent events.
22 Aug 2024
Dynamic Fragility of a Slender Rock Pillar in a Sedimentary Rock Mass – from rock mechanics to seismic hazard
Alaa Jbara and Michael Tsesarsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-150, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Fragile geological features are the only empirical data to validate seismic hazard analysis over prehistoric timescales. We present a fragility analysis of a 42 m high rock pillar. Based on LiDAR scanning and in-situ rock elastic modulus measurements, we developed an accurate finite element model. The model was validated by comparing computational modal analysis with in-situ measurements of natural vibrations. Dynamic fragility analysis was used to challenge regional seismic hazard estimates.
20 Aug 2024
Proglacial lake evolution and outburst flood hazard at Fjallsjökull glacier, southeast Iceland
Greta Hoe Wells, Þorsteinn Sæmundsson, Finnur Pálsson, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Eyjólfur Magnússon, Reginald L. Hermanns, and Snævarr Guðmundsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2002, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Glacier retreat elevates the risk of landslides released into proglacial lakes, which can trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This study maps proglacial lake evolution and GLOF hazard scenarios at Fjallsjökull glacier, Iceland. Lake volume increased from 1945–2021 and is estimated to triple over the next century. Three slopes are prone to landslides that may trigger GLOFs. Results will mitigate flood hazard at this popular tourism site and advance GLOF research in Iceland and globally.
20 Aug 2024
Invited perspectives: Fostering interoperability of data, models, communication and governance for disaster resilience through transdisciplinary knowledge co-production
Kai Schröter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Benedikt Gräler, Lydia Cumiskey, Sukaina Bharwani, Janne Parviainen, Chahan Kropf, Viktor Wattin Hakansson, Martin Drews, Tracy Irvine, Clarissa Dondi, Heiko Apel, Jana Löhrlein, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefano Bagli, Levente Huszti, Christopher Genillard, Silvia Unguendoli, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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With the increasing negative impacts of extreme weather events globally, it's crucial to align efforts to manage disasters with measures to adapt to climate change. We identify challenges in systems and organizations working together. We suggest that collaboration across various fields is essential and propose an approach to improve collaboration, including a framework for better stakeholder engagement and an open-source data system that helps gather and connect important information.
19 Aug 2024
Development of operational decision support tools for mechanized ski guiding using avalanche terrain modelling, GPS tracking, and machine learning
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, Roger Atkins, Patrick Mair, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-147, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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We develop decision support tools to assist professional ski guides in determining safe terrain each day based on current conditions. To understand the decision-making process we collaborate with professional guides and build three unique models to predict their decisions. The models accurately capture the real world decision-making outcomes in 85–93 % of cases. Our conclusions focus on strengths and weaknesses of each model and discuss ramifications for practical applications in ski guiding.
19 Aug 2024
Brief Communication: Rapid high-resolution flood impact-based early warning is possible with RIM2D: a showcase for the 2023 pluvial flood in Braunschweig
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, Kai Schröter, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-139, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This work introduces RIM2D, a hydrodynamic model for precise and rapid flood predictions, ideal for early warning systems. We demonstrate RIM2D's ability to deliver detailed and localized flood forecasts using the June 2023 flood in Braunschweig, Germany, as a case study. This research highlights the readiness of RIM2D and the required hardware for integration into operational flood warning and impact-based forecasting systems.
19 Aug 2024
Modelling Flood Losses to Microbusinesses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2340, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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Many households in Vietnam depend on revenues from microbusinesses (shop-houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding to the microbusinesses are not modelled. Business turnover, building age and water depth are found to be the main drivers of flood losses to microbusinesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (Non-parametric Bayesian Networks) that estimate flood losses to microbusinesses. The results help in flood risk management and adaption decision making for microbusinesses.
19 Aug 2024
Large-scale assessment of rainfall-induced landslide hazard based on hydrometeorological information: application to Partenio Massif (Italy)
Daniel Camilo Roman Quintero, Pasquale Marino, Abdullah Abdullah, Giovanni Francesco Santonastaso, and Roberto Greco
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2329, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Local thresholds for landslide forecasting, combining hydrologic predisposing factors and rainfall features, are developed from a physically based model of a slope. To extend their application to a wide area, uncertainty due to spatial variability of geomorphological and hydrologic variables is introduced. The obtained hydrometeorological thresholds, integrating root zone soil moisture and aquifer water level with rainfall depth, outperform thresholds based on rain intensity and duration.
16 Aug 2024
Reconstruction of ancient drought in Northwest China and societal responses: A case study of 1759
Zhixin Hao, Meirun Jiang, Haonan Yang, Danyang Xiong, and Jingyun Zheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-111, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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At ancient time, social system could successfully responded most extreme climate events, such as droughts. To explore society’s adaptability to extreme climate events, we chosen the 1759 drought as a typical case study, then reconstructed the meteorological distribution of drought spatially and temporally, analyzed the impacts of the drought on society, and summarized the adaptive measures employed at the time.
14 Aug 2024
The miscellaneous synoptic forcings in the four-day widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the precipitation extremes of 2023 globally. The extreme rainfall was significant underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, we examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall over North China based on simulations with the WRF model.
14 Aug 2024
Typhoon statistics in variable resolution Asia-Pacific CAM-SE
Duofan Zheng, Shao-Yi Lee, Wenting Lin, Qi Ran, and Wenjie Dong
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2415, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Three Asia-centric configurations of CAM-SE with different resolution were set up in Western Pacific region. A typhoon track algorithm was developed to extract the tracks of typhoons generated by the simulations. We found that the 0.25° regionally-refined configuration of CAM-SE could produce cost-efficient yet appropriate extreme typhoon statistics for the use of climate studies.
14 Aug 2024
Hail events in Germany, rare or frequent natural hazards?
Tabea Wilke, Katharina Lengfeld, and Markus Schultze
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2507, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Hail in Germany is a natural hazard that is not in everyone's focus, even though it can cause great damage. In this study we focus on hail frequency, sizes and spatial distribution in Germany based on crowd sourcing and weather radar data. We compare different algorithms based on weather radar data with crowd sourced data and show the annual and diurnal cycle of hail in Germany.
14 Aug 2024
The 2022 Drought Needs to be a Turning Point for European Drought Risk Management
Riccardo Biella, Ansastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights gaps in European drought management exposed by the 2022 drought and proposes a new direction. Using a Europe-wide survey of water managers, we examine four areas: increasing drought risk, impacts, drought management strategies, and their evolution. Despite growing risks, management remains fragmented and short-term. However, signs of improvement suggest readiness for change. We advocate for a European Drought Directive.
13 Aug 2024
Using Random Forests to Predict Extreme Sea-Levels at the Baltic Coast at Weekly Timescales
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2222, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 7 comments)
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We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with a satisfactorily predictability (70 % correct predictions) using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 to 20 %. We could identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time the method can be used as a pre-warning system triggering the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
13 Aug 2024
Shaping shallow landslide susceptibility as a function of rainfall events
Micol Fumagalli, Alberto Previati, Paolo Frattini, and Giovanni B. Crosta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-140, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-140, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Shallow landslides are mass movements of limited thickness, mainly triggered by extreme rainfalls, that can pose a serious risk to the population. This study uses statistical methods to analyse and simulate the relationship between shallow landslides and rainfalls, showing that in the studied area shallow landslides are modulated by rainfall but controlled by lithology. A new classification method considering the costs associated with a misclassification of the susceptibility is also proposed.
08 Aug 2024
The effect of slab touchdown on anticrack arrest in propagation saw tests
Philipp L. Rosendahl, Johannes Schneider, Grégoire Bobillier, Florian Rheinschmidt, Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, and Philipp Weißgraeber
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-122, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Our research investigates the role of anticracks in snowpacks and their impact on avalanche formation, focusing on anticracks due to weak layer collapse. We discovered that slab touchdown on the snow below the weak layer decreases the energy available for crack propagation, potentially leading to a stop of crack propagation. This underscores the importance of mechanical interactions in snowpack stability. Our work offers new insights for enhancing avalanche prediction and mitigation strategies.
08 Aug 2024
The 1538 eruption at Campi Flegrei resurgent caldera: implications for future unrest and eruptive scenarios
Giuseppe Rolandi, Claudia Troise, Marco Sacchi, Massimo Di Lascio, and Giuseppe De Natale
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2035, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We compare recent unrest episodes at Campi Flegrei caldera (Naples, Italy), with phenomena occurred during the historical eruption in 1538. Besides proposing a new, accurate reconstruction of the ground movements in the area since VIII century BC, we deduce a striking similarity of the present unrest with the precursors to the 1538 eruption. We then infer that, if the ground uplift continues, earthquakes up to magnitude 5 are expected, as well as a considerable eruption risk in the next decades.
06 Aug 2024
Review article: Understanding the placement of fire emissions from the Brazilian Cerrado biome in the atmospheric carbon budget
Renata Moura da Veiga, Celso von Randow, Chantelle Burton, Douglas Kelley, Manoel Cardoso, and Fabiano Morelli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2348, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We systematically reviewed 69 papers on fire emissions from the Brazilian Cerrado biome to provide insights into its placement in the atmospheric carbon budget and support future improved estimation. We find that estimating fire emissions in the Cerrado requires a comprehensive approach, combining quantitative and qualitative aspects of fire. A pathway towards this is the inclusion of fire management representation in land surface models and the integration of observational and modelling data.
06 Aug 2024
Assessing the performance and explainability of an avalanche danger forecast model
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Michele Volpi, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2374, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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This study assesses the performance and explainability of a random forest classifier for predicting dry-snow avalanche danger levels during initial live-testing. The model achieved ∼70 % agreement with human forecasts, performing equally well in nowcast and forecast modes, while capturing the temporal dynamics of avalanche forecasting. The explainability approach enhances the transparency of the model's decision-making process, providing a valuable tool for operational avalanche forecasting.
05 Aug 2024
Flood relief logistics planning for coastal cities: a case study in Shanghai, China
Pujun Liang, Jie Yin, Dandan Wang, Yi Lu, Yuhan Yang, Dan Gao, and Jianfeng Mai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 9 comments)
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Addressing coastal city flood risks, this article examines relief logistics planning, employing a GIS-network analysis and optimization model to minimize costs and dissatisfaction. The investigation, grounded in Shanghai's emergency infrastructure and flood relief logistics framework, presents feasible distribution strategies. Meanwhile, the case study indicates that the supply levels of Emergency Flood Shelters and Emergency Reserve Warehouses vary in different coastal flood scenarios.
29 Jul 2024
Comparative Analysis of μ (I) and Voellmy-Type Grain Flow Rheologies in Geophysical Mass Flows: Insights from Theoretical and Real Case Studies
Yu Zhuang, Brian W. McArdell, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-87, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This study reformulates the μ(I) rheology into a Voellmy-type relationship to elucidate its physical implications. The μ(I) rheology, incorporating a dimensionless inertial number, mimics granular temperature effects, reflecting shear thinning behavior of mass flows. However, its constant Coulomb friction coefficient limits accuracy in modeling deposition. Comparing μ(I) with Voellmy-type rheologies reveals strengths and limitations, enhancing mass flow modeling and engineering applications.
29 Jul 2024
Has it really stopped? Interplay between rheology, topography and mesh resolution in numerical modelling of snow avalanches
Saoirse Robin Goodwin, Thierry Faug, and Guillaume Chambon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-123, 2024
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This paper considers how we can objectivity define stoppage of numerically-modelled snow avalanches. When modelling real topographies, numerically-modelled avalanche snow velocities typically do not converge to 0, so stoppage is defined with arbitrary criteria, which must be tuned on a case-by-case basis. We propose a new objective arrest criterion based on local flow properties, in tandem with a newly-implemented physical yielding criterion.
26 Jul 2024
Review article: Co-creating knowledge for drought impact assessment in socio-hydrology
Silvia De Angeli, Lorenzo Villani, Giulio Castelli, Maria Rusca, Giorgio Boni, Elena Bresci, and Luigi Piemontese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2207, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Despite droughts are deeply intertwined within sociohydrological systems, traditional top-down approaches often ignore those directly affected. By integrating insights from five research fields, we present a framework to guide the co-creation of knowledge for drought impact assessment. Emphasizing social dynamics and power imbalances, the framework guides a more inclusive approach to drought assessment and adaptation.
25 Jul 2024
Estimating the mass of tephra accumulated on roads to best manage the impact of volcanic eruptions: the example of Mt. Etna, Italy
Luigi Mereu, Manuel Stocchi, Alexander Garcia, Michele Prestifilippo, Laura Sandri, Costanza Bonadonna, and Simona Scollo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2028, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Considering the question about the quantification of tephra mass deposited on roads following an or a series of explosive volcanic eruptions, in this work we assessed the cumulated tephra mass on the road networks in three selected towns on Etna’s eastern flank during several paroxysms in 2021. This is a first attempt to estimate the amount of tephra that must be removed during a crisis and could be reused instead of disposed, converting in this way a potential problem into an opportunity.
25 Jul 2024
What can we learn from global disaster records about multi-hazards and their risk dynamics?
Wiebke S. Jäger, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Timothy Tiggeloven, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-134, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Multiple hazards, occurring at the same time or shortly after one another, can have more extreme impacts than single hazards. We examined the disaster records in the global emergency events database EM-DAT to better understand this phenomenon. We developed a method to identify such multi-hazards and analyzed their reported impacts using statistics. Multi-hazards have accounted for a disproportionate amount of the overall impacts, but there are different patterns in which the impacts compound.
24 Jul 2024
From rockfall source areas identification to susceptibility zonation: a proposed workflow tested in El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain)
Roberto Sarro, Mauro Rossi, Paola Reichenbach, and Rosa María Mateos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-85, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
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This study proposes a novel workflow to precisely model rockfalls. It compares three methods for defining source areas to enhance model accuracy. Identified areas are inputted into a runout model to identify vulnerable zones. A new approach generates probabilistic susceptibility maps using ECDFs. Validation strategies employing various inventory types are included. Comparing six susceptibility maps highlights the impact of source area definition on model precision.
24 Jul 2024
Kinetic characteristics investigation of the Yingxingping rockslide based on discrete element method combined with discrete fracture network
Bo Liu, Yufang Zhang, Xiewen Hu, Jian Li, Kun Yuan, Kun He, Jian Cui, and Zhenhua Yin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2216, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 4 comments)
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This study focused on a catastrophic post-earthquake rockslide in Wenchuan, Southwestern China. On-site investigations and aerial photography were used to ascertained the basic landslides characteristics. A 3D discrete element method with discrete fracture network was employed to assess the dynamic process of the rockslide. The effects of fractures density and friction angle on kinetic characteristics were analysed, and the role of the check dam as a mitigation work has been verified.
17 Jul 2024
Exploring implications of input parameter uncertainties on GLOF modelling results using the state-of-the-art modelling code, r.avaflow
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1819, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We evaluated the sensitivity of model outputs to input parameter uncertainties by performing multiple GLOF simulations using the r.avaflow model. We found out that GLOF modelling outputs are highly sensitive to six parameters: volume of mass movements entering lakes, DEM datasets, origin of mass movements, mesh size, basal frictional angle, and entrainment coefficient. Future modelling should carefully consider the output uncertainty from these sensitive parameters.
15 Jul 2024
Unravelling the capacity-action gap in flood risk adaptation
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-121, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
11 Jul 2024
Prediction of volume of shallow landslides due to rainfall using data-driven models
Jérémie Tuganishuri, Chan-Young Yune, Manik Das Adhikari, Seung Woo Lee, Gihong Kim, and Sang-Guk Yum
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-90, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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To reduce the consequences of landslides due to rainfall, such as of life and economic losses, and disruption of order of our daily living; this study describes the process of building a machine learning model which can help to estimate the volume of landslides material that can occur in a particular region taking into account of antecedent rainfall, soil characteristics, type of vegetation etc. The findings can be useful for land use, infrastructure design and rainfall disaster management.
04 Jul 2024
Mid-field tsunami hazards in greater Karachi from seven hypothetical ruptures of the Makran subduction thrust
Haider Hasan, Hira Ashfaq Lodhi, Shoaib Ahmed, Shahrukh Khan, Adnan Rais, and Muhammad Masood Rafi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-110, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Our study models tsunami risks for Karachi, identifying two hazard zones with varying wave heights and arrival times. Karachi Port is at higher immediate risk. We conducted this research to understand the city's vulnerability to tsunamis from the Makran Subduction Zone and to improve emergency response plans. Using simulations of seven potential earthquake scenarios, we highlight the need for tailored disaster strategies and effective early warning systems to protect coastal communities.
01 Jul 2024
How does perceived heat stress differ between urban forms and human vulnerability profiles? – case study Berlin
Nimra Iqbal, Marvin Ravan, Zina Mitraka, Joern Birkmann, Sue Grimmond, Denise Hertwig, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Giorgos Somarakis, and Angela Wendnagel-Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1907, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This work deepens the understanding of how perceived heat stress, human vulnerability (e.g. age, income) and adaptive capacities (e.g. green, shaded spaces) are coupled with urban structures. The results show that perceived heat stress decreases with distance from urban center, however, human vulnerability and adaptive capacities depend stronger on inner-variations and differences between urban structures. Planning policies and adaptation strategies should account for these differences.
27 Jun 2024
Assessment of coastal inundation triggered by multiple drivers in Ca Mau Peninsula, Vietnam
Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 7 comments)
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The paper focuses on inundation process in a highest climate vulnerability area of the Mekong Delta, main drivers and future impacts, this is importance alert to decision makers and stakeholder for investment of infrastructure, adaptation approaches and mitigating impacts.
24 Jun 2024
Tsunami detection methods for Ocean-Bottom Pressure Gauges
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-113, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called Ocean-Bottom Pressure Gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.
24 Jun 2024
Applying recession models for low-flow prediction: a comparison of regression and matching strip approaches
Michael Margreth, Florian Lustenberger, Dorothea Hug Peter, Fritz Schlunegger, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-78, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-78, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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Recession models (RM) are crucial for observing the low flow behavior of a catchment. We developed two novel RM, which are designed to represent slowly draining catchment conditions. With a newly designed low flow prediction procedure we tested the prediction capability of these two models and three others from literature. One of our novel products delivered the best results, because it best represents the slowly draining catchment conditions.
17 Jun 2024
Review Article: Leveraging Social Media for Managing Natural Hazard Disasters: A Critical Review of Data Collection Strategies and Actionable Insights
Lakshmi S. Gopal, Rekha Prabha, Hemalatha Thirugnanam, Maneesha Vinodini Ramesh, and Bruce D. Malamud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1536, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 3 comments)
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We critically reviewed 250 articles from 2010 to 2023, analysed how social media is used to manage disasters, and developed the Social Media Literature Database. We summarise the methods used for data collection and filtering. Key findings include the widespread use of the latest technologies to handle data, proficiency in spatiotemporal analysis, and gaps in community interaction and resource identification. We also propose best practices for using social media to enhance disaster management.
17 Jun 2024
How can seismo-volcanic catalogues be improved or created using robust neural networks through weakly supervised approaches?
Manuel Titos, Carmen Benítez, Milad Kowsari, and Jesús M. Ibáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-102, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-102, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 16 comments)
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Developing seismo-volcanic monitoring tools is crucial for Volcanic Observatories. Our study reviews current methods using Transfer Learning techniques and finds that while these systems identify nearly 90 % of seismic events, they miss other important volcanic data due to the catalogue-learning bias. We propose a weakly supervised technique to reduce bias and uncover new volcanic information. This method can improve existing databases and create new ones efficiently using machine learning.
17 Jun 2024
Review article: Research progress on influencing factors, data, and methods for early identification of landslide hazards
Heng Lu, Zhengli Yang, Kai Song, Zhijie Zhang, Chao Liu, Ruihua Nie, Lei Ma, Wanchang Zhang, Gang Fan, Chen Chen, and Min Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-68, 2024
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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1. Sort out the characteristics, functions, links, and application scope of various measuring tools. 2. Bibliometric analysis of early identification methods for landslide hazards. 3. Review the influencing factors of landslides and summarize data links and application literature. 4. Focused on analyzing 5 early landslide identification methods. 5. In-depth exploration of the internal connections of literature and future development directions.
14 Jun 2024
Quantitative analysis of actors' mention in press coverage of a seismo-volcanic activity in the French overseas
Louise Le Vagueresse, Marion Le Texier, and Maud H. Devès
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1358, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Using the case study of a seismo-volcanic crisis in a French overseas department and a replicable method, this paper examines what the media’s framing of their sources unveils about underlying representations and levels of trust among interviewed stakeholders, the dynamics of their relationships and distinctive aspects related to this specific context and media portrayal. It especially emphasises the need for proximity between sources and communities.
14 Jun 2024
Simulation of a lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere electromagnetic coupling prior to the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake
Mei Li, Zhuangkai Wang, Chen Zhou, Handong Tan, and Meng Cao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-94, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 12 comments)
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In order to check the relationship between ground-based electromagnetic anomaly and ionospheric effect before the famous Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake, three physical models have been established to simulate the communication process of electromagnetic energy from the Wenchuan hypocenter to the Earth’s surface, via the atmosphere to the ionosphere to cause ionospheric variations.
12 Jun 2024
Conversion relationships between Modified Mercalli Intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration for historical shallow crustal earthquakes in Mexico
Quetzalcoatl Rodríguez-Pérez and F. Ramón Zúñiga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-92, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Seismic intensity reflects earthquake damage, although this parameter is often subjective. On the other hand, peak acceleration values are a direct measure of earthquake effects. Seismic intensity was used to describe historical earthquakes, and its use is rare today. For this reason, it is important to have a relationship between these parameters of strong movements in order to predict the acceleration of historical earthquakes.
11 Jun 2024
Temporal dynamic vulnerability – Impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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The study investigates how the intensity of previous windstorm events and the time between two events affect the vulnerability of residential buildings in Germany. By analyzing 23 years of data, it was found that higher intensity of previous events generally reduces vulnerability in subsequent storms, while shorter intervals between events increase vulnerability. The results emphasize the approach of considering vulnerability in risk assessments as temporal dynamic.
10 Jun 2024
The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) v.2
Grant Statham and Cam Campbell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-89, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) is an avalanche terrain rating system used for terrain assessment and risk communication in public and workplace avalanche safety practices. This paper introduces ATES v.2, an update to the system that expands the original scale from three levels to five by including Class 0 – Non-Avalanche Terrain, and Class 4 – Extreme Terrain. The updated models for assessment and communication are described in detail, along with methods for the application of ATES.
10 Jun 2024
It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr valley, Germany
Sergiy Vorogushyn, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Xiaoxiang Guan, Oldrich Rakovec, Husain Najafi, Luis Samaniego, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-97, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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The July 2021 flood in Central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the past decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory was only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps better prepare for future extreme floods.
06 Jun 2024
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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Executive editor
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Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners’ needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
Executive editor
While there are many examples on vulnerability mapping for climate-related hazards in the academic literature, there is very limited evidence of those maps being used by practitioners to achieve a systematic and long-term reduction of risk and vulnerability from climate-related hazards. The authors have identified spatial planners as key players in reducing risks from climate-related hazards in urban areas and use existing spatial planning laws as the starting point to define the legal requirements vulnerability maps need to fulfill to be usable by spatial planners. This innovative approach presented for the example of spatial planning in Stuttgart, Germany demonstrates a promising way to overcome the current gap between research and practice on urban climate change adaptation.
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05 Jun 2024
Reconstruction and forecasting of slow-moving landslide displacement using a Kalman Filter approach
Mohit Mishra, Gildas Besançon, Guillaume Chambon, and Laurent Baillet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1227, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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This work was initiated in the context of a large interdisciplinary research project about Risk at Grenoble University, France. It relates to the challenging topic of landslide monitoring, and combines geotechnical sciences with techniques from control system engineering. Considering a specific modelling approach, the study provides a methodology towards estimation of some landslide parameters and their use in motion prediction. This could then be extended to the design of alert systems.
05 Jun 2024
Flood hazard mapping and disaster prevention recommendations based on detailed topographical analysis in Khovd City, Western Mongolia
Narangerel Serdyanjiv, Suzuki Yasuhiro, Hasegawa Tomonori, and Takaichi Yoshiyuki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-91, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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The present study considers the hazard areas of rainfall-derived river floods and flash floods flowing into Khovd City. We consider geomorphological elements such as terrace profiles, floodplains, riverbeds, gullies and depressions to derive detailed topographical and directional hazard maps. This study results provide valuable insights for the Administration of Government and Emergency Department of Khovd to protect citizens from flood hazards.
04 Jun 2024
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer precipitation extremes over western Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, monsoon activity, and Pacific sea surface temperature
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Summer rainfall extremes over western Japan were calculated every year, using radar, rain-gauges, and model. Similar regions were determined by machine learning. The relationships between regional rainfall extremes and Pacific climate modes. The modelled relationships were similar to the observed ones for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the warming trend. However, the model did not reproduce the relationship for Pacific Decadal Variability.
03 Jun 2024
A Holocene alpine seismic chronicle from Lake Aiguebelette (NW French Alps)
Mathilde Banjan, Christian Crouzet, Hervé Jomard, Pierre Sabatier, David Marsan, and Erwan Messager
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-83, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 3 comments)
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This research shows how lake sediments reveal seismic activity history over extended periods, surpassing historical records. Sediment analysis from Lake Aiguebelette in the Western Alps found 32 layers likely caused by earthquakes over the Holocene. Robust dating methods correlated these layers with known historical earthquakes. Results suggest Lake Aiguebelette's sediment records mainly reflect local seismic events, enhancing understanding of earthquake recurrence and regional seismic history.
31 May 2024
Sensitive infrastructures and people with disabilities – Key issues when strengthening resilience in reconstruction
Alessa Truedinger, Joern Birkmann, Mark Fleischhauer, and Celso Ferreira
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1607, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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In post-disaster reconstruction, emphasis should be placed on critical and sensitive infrastructures. In Germany as in other countries, sensitive infrastructures have not yet been focused on – therefore, we developed a method for determining the risk sensitive infrastructures are facing in the context of riverine and pluvial flooding. The easy-to-use assessment framework can be applied to various sensitive infrastructures, e.g. to qualify and accelerate decisions in the reconstruction process.
Executive editor
The paper provides new and interesting insights on risk assessments for sensitive infrastructure. While risk assessments for critical infrastructure are relatively established the authors highlight the need for similar definitions and procedures for sensitive infrastructure such as special needs education facilities. The paper makes an important contribution by both defining sensitive infrastructure and developing a risk assessment process. A case study for a special needs school affected by the 2021 floods in the Ahr valley, Germany provides interesting insights on how to apply the risk assessment method developed by the authors to inform a 'build back better' approach.
30 May 2024
A regional analysis of paraglacial landslide activation in southern coastal Alaska
Jane Walden, Mylène Jacquemart, Bretwood Higman, Romain Hugonnet, Andrea Manconi, and Daniel Farinotti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1086, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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In a study of eight landslides adjacent to glaciers in Alaska, we found that landslide movement increased as the glacier retreated past the landslide at four sites. Movement at other sites coincided with heavy precipitation or increased glacier thinning, and two sites showed little-to-no motion. We suggest that landslides next to water-terminating glaciers may be especially vulnerable to acceleration, which we guess is due to faster retreat rates and water replacing ice at the landslide edge.
27 May 2024
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 9 comments)
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Recently updated flood safety norms in the Netherlands prescribe that sea dikes and other flood-protecting structures should withstand high sea levels reached very rarely, locally down to only once in 10 million years. We show that such levels can be estimated with reasonable accuracy by the cautious use of very large datasets of numerical simulations of weather and storm surge.
24 May 2024
Consistency between the Strain Rate Model and ESHM20 Earthquake Rate Forecast in Europe: insights for seismic hazard
Bénédicte Donniol Jouve, Anne Socquet, Céline Beauval, Jesús Piña Valdès, and Laurentiu Danciu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-787, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-787, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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This research investigates how geodetic monitoring enhances accuracy in seismic hazard assessment. By utilizing geodetic strain rate maps for Europe and the ESHM20 source model, we compare geodetic and seismic moment rates across the continent while addressing associated uncertainties. Our analysis reveals primary compatibility in high-activity zones. In well-constrained regions of lower activity, we also observed an overlap in the distribution of seismic and geodetic moments.
24 May 2024
A multiscale modelling framework of coastal flooding events for global to local flood hazard assessments
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1354, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Global flood models are key for mitigating coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations to provide actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models, and bridges between fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three storms to present the merits of a multiscale approach. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
16 May 2024
The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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The skill of hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days (periods with the 5-day moving average temperature being above its local summer 90th percentile) over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead is examined. The heat wave days forecasts show potential in warning of heat risk in 1–2 weeks in advance, and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves, in lead times of up to 3 weeks, when the heat wave had initiated prior to the forecast issuance.
14 May 2024
Unbalanced relationship between flood risk perception and flood preparedness from the perspective of response intention and socio-economic factors: a case study of Nanjing, China
Yabo Li and Peng Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-23, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study designed questionnaire survey and aimed to reveal the influence path between flood risk perception and flood preparedness. We found that people relied more on threat appraisal to perceive risk and failed to trigger high enough coping appraisal. Insufficient risk perception led to strenuous transform into flood preparedness with unbalanced relationship. Groups with social-economic features showed different preferences to achieve risk perception and flood preparedness.
13 May 2024
Advancing nearshore and onshore tsunami hazard approximation with machine learning surrogates
Naveen Ragu Ramalingam, Kendra Johnson, Marco Pagani, and Mario Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-72, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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By combining limited tsunami simulations with a machine learning, we developed a fast and efficient framework to predict tsunami impacts such as wave heights and inundation depths along different coastal regions. Testing our model with historical tsunami source scenarios helped assess its reliability and broad applicability. This work enables more efficient and comprehensive tsunami hazard modelling workflow, essential for tsunami risk evaluations and enhancing coastal disaster preparedness.
30 Apr 2024
Application of machine learning to forecast agricultural drought impacts for large scale sub-seasonal drought monitoring in Brazil
Joseph William Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought impacts on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters in Brazil (CEMADEN). This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
24 Apr 2024
Turning regret into future disaster preparedness with no-regrets
Joy Ommer, Milan Kalas, Jessica Neumann, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1186, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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What do we regret about our disaster preparedness? This study showed that we regret most not having taken any actions! Also, we only regret actions which end up threatening our life! What we don't regret is helping others! The findings of this study suggest that the no-regrets approach could be a suitable framework for moving towards longer term disaster preparedness.
22 Apr 2024
Simulation of cold powder avalanches considering daily snowpack and weather situations to enhance road safety
Julia Glaus, Katreen Wikstrom Jones, Perry Bartelt, Marc Christen, Lukas Stoffel, Johan Gaume, and Yves Bühler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-771, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study assesses RAMMS::EXTENDED's predictive power in estimating avalanche run-out distances critical for mountain road safety. Leveraging meteorological data and sensitivity analysis, it offers meaningful predictions, aiding near real-time hazard assessments and future model refinement for improved decision-making.
19 Apr 2024
Supershear crack propagation in snow slab avalanche release: new insights from numerical simulations and field measurements
Grégoire Bobillier, Bertil Trottet, Bastian Bergfeld, Ron Simenhois, Alec van Herwijnen, Jürg Schweizer, and Johan Gaume
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-70, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Our study focuses on the initiation process of snow slab avalanches. By combining experimental data and numerical simulations, we show that on gentle slopes, a crack forms and propagates due to compression fracture within a weak layer, and on steep slopes, the crack velocity can increase dramatically after about 5 meters due to a fracture mode transition (compression to shear). Understanding these dynamics represents an essential additional piece in the dry-snow slab avalanche formation puzzle.
18 Apr 2024
Lesser Antilles Seismotectonic Zoning Model for Seismic Hazard Assessment
Oceane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Hervé Jomard, Didier Bertil, and the Lesser Antilles Working Group
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-53, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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By analyzing historical and instrumental seismic data, fault knowledge and geodetic measurements, we provide a new understanding of seismic hazard in the Lesser Antilles via seismotectonic zoning. We propose new models that can have a significant impact on seismic hazard assessment, such as the inclusion of mantle wedge seismicity, volcanic seismicity and a complete revision of the subduction interface zoning.
16 Apr 2024
How to communicate and educate more effectively on natural risk issues to improve disaster risk management through serious games
Mercedes Vázquez-Vílchez, Rocío Carmona-Molero, and Tania Ouariachi-Peralta
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-994, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Few evidence of the potential of disaster risk management (DRM) games has been documented. This study focuses on exploring the potential of serious games for improving DRM. We employed a methodological triangulation, analysing and comparing data from content analysis of serious games, focus groups with experts and literature review. For the first time, this paper provides a list of recommended features of DRM game. The results can be of great help to teachers and game designers in improving DRM.
08 Apr 2024
Regional-scale analysis of weather-related rockfall triggering mechanisms in Norway, and its sensitivity to climate change
Rosa M. Palau, Kjersti Gleditsch Gisnås, Anders Solheim, and Graham Lewis Gilbert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-46, 2024
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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This paper looks at the relationship between rockfalls and weather conditions in two regions of Norway. The study explores how often rockfalls occur and how this might change in the future due to climate change. The results indicate that changes in temperature, rather than just heavy rain or snow melt, can have a big impact on the time rockfalls happen. In particular, when temperatures oscillate up and down, rockfalls are observed more often.
05 Apr 2024
An updated EAWS matrix to determine the avalanche danger level: derivation, usage, and consistency
Karsten Müller, Frank Techel, and Christoph Mitterer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-48, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-48, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Avalanche forecasting is crucial for mountain safety. Tools like the European Avalanche Danger Scale and Matrix set standards for forecasters, but consistency still varies. We analyzed the use of the EAWS Matrix, aiding danger level assignment. Our analysis shows inconsistencies, suggesting further need for refinement and training.
04 Apr 2024
Risk Assessment and Mechanism of Water Inrush in Water-rich Deep-buried Karst Tunnel
Xin Zhang, Mingtang Lei, Shaoqing Wang, Xiaotian Zhang, Hai Chen, and Xiaozhen Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-56, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-56, 2024
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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This research investigates water inrush disasters in water-rich, deep-buried karst tunnels, focusing on the Nahecun tunnel. By analyzing hydrogeological characteristics and identifying key factors contributing to water inrush disasters, a risk assessment system is developed and validated through field experiments.
04 Apr 2024
From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-650, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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The research aimed to understand the role of society in mitigating drought impacts through policy responses in the context of northeast Brazil. Results revealed that socio-environmental-economic impacts of drought are less frequently reported, while hydrological impacts of drought were the most reported. It emphasized that public policies addressing the impacts of drought need to focus not only on increasing water availability, but also on strengthening the local economy.
03 Apr 2024
Monitoring snow depth variations in an avalanche release area using low cost LiDAR and optical sensors
Pia Ruttner-Jansen, Annelies Voordendag, Thierry Hartmann, Julia Glaus, Andreas Wieser, and Yves Bühler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-744, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Executive editor
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Snow depth variations caused by wind are an important factor in avalanche danger, but detailed and up-to-date information is rarely available. We propose a monitoring system, using LiDAR and optical sensors, to measure the snow depth distribution at high spatial and temporal resolution. First results show that we can quantify snow depth changes with an accuracy on the low decimeter level or better, and to identify events such as avalanches or displacement of snow during periods of strong winds.
Executive editor
This paper demonstrates a significant technological advance, from measurements of snow depth at a point at high temporal resolution, to mapping snow depth at the 100m scale with high temporal resolution. It has important applications in snow hydrology, snow avalanche research, and climate monitoring. The approach and design are described in detail and will be useful for other researchers looking to apply this approach. The paper is clear and well written, with important details included.
02 Apr 2024
Study on Multi-water Sources Allocation Based on Multi-scenario potential tapping under Extreme Drought: An Example from the Yellow River Water Supply Area in Henan
Fang Wan, Shaoming Peng, Yu Wang, Xiaokang Zheng, Fei Zhang, Weihao Wang, and Xiaohui Shen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-31, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In this paper, the Yellow River water supply area is taken as an example. According to PDSI, the extreme drought years are selected to obtain the water shortage in each water supply area. According to different potential mining measures, different water supply scenarios are set up to explore multi-scenario supply increase under extreme drought conditions. The allocation model is constructed, and a multi-scenario supply allocation scheme is proposed.
27 Mar 2024
Effective Storm Surge Evacuation Planning Coupling Risk Assessment and DRL: A Case Study of Daya Bay Petrochemical Industrial Zone
Chuanfeng Liu, Yan Li, Wenjuan Li, Hao Qin, Lin Mu, Si Wang, Darong Liu, and Kai Zhou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2280, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Storm surges pose a significant flooding risk to coastal areas. This research, taking China's Daya Bay Petrochemical Industrial Zone as a case study, addresses the dynamic nature of flooding events and the limitations of traditional evacuation plans for individuals with restricted real-time information. By combining the hydrological model and artificial intelligence, the method proves highly effective in optimizing evacuation routes, providing invaluable guidance during actual storm surges.
11 Mar 2024
Brief Communication: Weak correlation between building damage and loss of life from landslides
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Alexandre Dunant, Amy L. Johnson, Erin L. Harvey, Sihan Li, Katherine Arrell, Jeevan Baniya, Dipak Basnet, Gopi K. Basyal, Nyima Dorjee Bhotia, Simon J. Dadson, Alexander L. Densmore, Tek Bahadur Dong, Mark E. Kincey, Katie Oven, Anuradha Puri, and Nick J. Rosser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-40, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Mapping exposure to landslides is necessary to mitigate risk and reduce vulnerability. In this study, we show that there is a poor correlation between building damage and deaths from landslides- such that the deadliest landslides do not always destroy the most buildings and vice versa. This has important implications for our management on landslide risk.
29 Feb 2024
Dependence Models for Multi-Hazard-Events
Georg C. Pflug, Viktoria Kittler, and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-194, 2024
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Multi-hazard events can be devastating and there are indications that in such situations the exposed risk-bearers are affected more severely compared to single-hazard events. We present some statistical modeling approaches to determine possible interrelationships of hazards and tested them for the specific case of the countries within the Danube Region. We especially focused on the question whether certain hazards are more likely to occur due to preceding hazardous events.
28 Feb 2024
Local floods in Madeira Island between 2009 and 2021. Rainfall analysis and risk assessment in mountain streams
Sérgio Silva Lopes, Marcelo Fragoso, and Eusébio Reis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-513, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This article analyses the characteristics of intense rainfall that gives rise to torrential floods in Madeira Island. There is a very strong correlation between maximum precipitation in 24 hours and 12 hours. Antecedent daily rainfall may also influence the occurrence of torrential floods. It was possible to obtain the identification of polynomial regression rules, which can be used to detect, in time and space, critical scenarios of torrential floods.
23 Feb 2024
Storm damage beyond wind speed – Impacts of wind characteristics and other meteorological factors on tree fall along railway lines
Rike Lorenz, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Uwe Ulbrich, Marc Hanewinkel, and Schmitz Benjamin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-120, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Tree fall events have an impact on forests and transport systems. Our study explored tree fall in relation to wind and weather conditions. We used tree fall data along railway lines and meteorological data from ERA5 and radar to build a logistic regression model. We found that high and prolonged wind speeds, wet conditions and high air density increase tree fall risk. These factors might change in the changing climate which in return will change risks for trees, forests and transport.
21 Feb 2024
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact-drivers in the context of food security
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Gesualdo Chiquito, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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The production of food is susceptible to several climate hazards such as droughts, excessive rainfall, and heat waves. In this paper, we present a methodology that uses artificial intelligence for assessing the impact of climate risks on food production. Our methodology helps us to automatically select the most relevant indices and critical thresholds of these indices that when surpassed can increase the danger of crop yield loss.
19 Feb 2024
An Efficient Method to Simulate Wildfire Propagation Using Irregular Grids
Conor Hackett, Rafael de Andrade Moral, Gourav Mishra, Tim McCarthy, and Charles Markham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-27, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 9 comments)
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This paper reviews existing wildfire propagation models and a comparison of different grid types including random grids to simulate wildfires. This paper finds that irregular grids simulate wildfires more efficiently than continuous models while still retaining a reasonable level of similarity. It also shows that irregular grids tend to retain greater similarity to continuous models than regular grids at the cost of slightly longer computational times.
15 Feb 2024
Converging Human Intelligence with AI Systems to Advance Flood Evacuation Decision Making
Rishav Karanjit, Vidya Samadi, Amanda Hughes, Pamela Murray-Tuite, and Keri Stephens
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-25, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This research paper focused on creating a new paradigm for flood evacuation decisions – so-called human-AI Convergence (HAC) system. A Natural Language Processing (NLP) method was used to mine and filter human data from X posts that were deemed relevant to flooding. The human data along with a river hydraulic model and AI algorithms were integrated into an evacuation re-routing algorithm to forecast flood depth and define evacuation decisions.
12 Feb 2024
Thunderstorm characteristics with lightning jumps and dives in satellite-based nowcasting
Felix Erdmann and Dieter Roel Poelman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-174, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study provides detailed insight into the thunderstorm characteristics associated with abrupt changes in the lightning activity of a thunderstorm – lightning jump (LJ) and lightning dive (LD) – using geostationary satellite observations. Thunderstorms exhibiting one or multiple LJs or LDs feature similar characteristics as severe thunderstorms. Storms with multiple LJs contain strong convective updrafts, and are prone to produce high rain rates, large hail or tornadoes.
02 Feb 2024
Characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of heavy rainfall and surface runoff generating process in the mountainous areas of northern China
Hui Yang, Xianglong Hou, and Jiansheng Cao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-8, 2024
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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For the last decade, a significant upward trend in the frequency of moderate and heavy rainfall events. The spatial variability of rainfall in the Taihang Mountain and the influence of elevation are both smaller when the rainfall during 24 h is lower than 50 mm. For runoff generation under saturated condition, the contribution of rainfall was only 58.17 %. While when the runoff coefficient was greater than 0.5, the surface runoff generating processes were entirely determined by rainfall.
29 Jan 2024
Meteorological Analysis of the Forcett-Dunalley Wildfire in 2013 in Tasmania, Australia
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kevin Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Jon Marsden-Smedley, Paul Beggs, and Maja Telišman Prtenjak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-210, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-210, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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We have analyzed a severe wildfire event in Tasmania, Australia that also developed thunderstorm clouds. The drivers of this compound hazard were highly complex, which included climatic factors (above normal heavy rain seasons followed by heatwave), weather systems (fronts and high winds) to heighten fire severity and unstable atmosphere to develop thunderstorm clouds, all in coincidence. Such event has demonstrated the difficulty to assess wildfire risk in a warming climate.
26 Jan 2024
The quest for reference stations at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece
Olga-Joan Ktenidou, Antonia Papageorgiou, Erion-Vasilis Pikoulis, Spyros Liakopoulos, Fevronia Gkika, Ziya Cekinmez, Panagiotis Savvaidis, Kalliopi Fragouli, and Christos P. Evangelidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-233, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Greek seismic data are valuable in European and even global databases, due to its high seismicity and numerous seismic stations. Seismic data coming from stations that lie on rock (i.e., not soil) sits are particularly valuable in seismology to define reference ground conditions and ground motions. However, little knowledge exists yet on how rock stations in Greece behave. This is the first time the network of the National Observatory is studied systematically to reveal reference stations.
25 Jan 2024
Individual Flood Risk Adaptation in Germany: Exploring the Role of Different Types of Flooding
Lisa Dillenardt and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-162, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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Using survey data, we analysed the influence of different flood types on whether households implement adaptive measures. We found that communication and management strategies need to involve municipalities and should be tailored to the locally relevant flood type.
10 Jan 2024
Social sensing a volcanic eruption: application to Kīlauea 2018
James Hickey, James Young, Michelle Spruce, Ravi Pandit, Hywel Williams, Rudy Arthur, Wendy Stovall, and Matthew Head
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-3, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-3, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Protecting lives and livelihoods during volcanic eruptions is the key challenge in volcanology. Analysing social media usage during volcanic crises can help better understand the impacts of volcanic eruptions and how warning messages are received and actioned, to eventually better protect those people and their livelihoods. Our work shows how social media data could be used in real-time during a volcanic crises to learn more about volcanic eruptions.
Executive editor
This paper shows a very useful analysis of social media activities during volcanic eruptions. The authors used social sensing of Twitter posts to track social action and reaction changes throughout the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea, Island of Hawaiʻi.
12 Dec 2023
Assessing future impacts of tropical cyclones on global banana production
Sophie Kaashoek, Žiga Malek, Nadia Bloemendaal, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Tropical storms are expected to get stronger all over the world, and this will have a big impact on people, buildings, and important activities like growing bananas. Already, in different parts of the world, banana farms are being hurt by these storms, which makes banana prices go up and affects the people who grow them. We're not sure how these storms will affect bananas everywhere in the future. We studied what happened to banana farms during storms in different parts of the world.
11 Dec 2023
Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Viet Nam – Part 2: An evaluation of predictability using a time-lagged cloud-resolving ensemble system
Chung-Chieh Wang, Duc Van Nguyen, Thang Van Vu, Pham Thi Thanh Nga, Pi-Yu Chuang, and Kien Ba Truong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-192, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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CReSS well predict the rainfall fields at the short-range forecast (less than 3 days) for 10 December. These good results are due to the model having good predicts of other meteorological variables, such as surface wind fields. These prediction skills are reducing at lead time longer than 3 days. The 24-hour rainfall is very sensitive with initial conditions, not only at the lower level but also at the upper level. The ensemble-based sensitivity is decreased with the increasing lead time.
29 Nov 2023
The contribution of diminishing river sand loads to beach erosion worldwide
Vincent Regard, Rafael Almar, Marcan Graffin, Sébastien Carretier, Edward Anthony, Roshanka Ranasinghe, and Pierre Maffre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-165, 2023
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The erosion of sandy beaches affects human activities and ecosystems. Research has mainly focused on sea level and wave changes, and while localized sediment research is abundant, the global effect of reduced fluvial sediment supply remains unexplored. This study presents a global sediment model that demonstrates the significant impact of river dams on beach erosion worldwide. Sediment can travel long distances via wave-induced transport, often away from river outlets.
18 Oct 2023
Control of erosion damage of the hinterland by due to construction of submerged detached breakwater
Changbin Lim, Jinhoon Kim, Jong-Beom Kim, and Jung-Lyul Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-166, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-166, 2023
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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The paper is to examine how much wave energy reduction is provided by the transmission rate of a submerged breakwater and what impact the diffraction process on the shoreline behind the structure and the longshore sediment transport.
05 Oct 2023
Regional landslide susceptibility assessment based on Inter.iamb-Tabu algorithm
Chao Yin, Xixuan Zhang, Xuebing Ma, Xinliang Liu, and Shufeng Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-153, 2023
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In this paper, Boshan district, China was taken as the study area. Four improved algorithms based on Bayesian networkwere verified, and the error index was introduced to determine the algorithm with the best modeling effect. The results show that the landslide susceptibility modeling based on Inter.iamb-Tabu is the best in Boshan district.
06 Sep 2023
Capacity Building Experience for Disaster Risk Reduction in Central Asia
Antonella Peresan, Chiara Scaini, Sergey Tyagunov, and Paola Ceresa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-156, 2023
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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The experience collected during a capacity building experience in Central Asia is illustrated, which consisted in the organization of a series of training workshops devoted to the different components of risk assessment, focused on earthquakes, floods and selected landslide scenarios. The activity consisted of five country-based workshops on exposure assessment in each of the Countries of Central Asia, plus three regional scale thematic workshops on hazard, vulnerability and risk modelling.
25 Aug 2023
Application of machine learning for integrated flood risk assessment: Case study of Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Texas
Behrang Bidadian, Aaron E. Maxwell, and Michael P. Strager
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-113, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Machine learning (ML) techniques offer a comprehensive approach to flood risk assessment and damage estimation. This study used ML to analyze flood damage caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Texas. It identified poorly drained soils, population density, and medium-intensity developed lands as the main contributors to the losses. The findings can help planners and stakeholders understand the causes of flood risk. Future research can build on this study by considering climate change factors.
23 Aug 2023
Simulated rainfall extremes over southern Africa over the 20th and 21st centuries
Nele Tim, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-147, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Our study analyses extreme precipitation over southern Africa in regional high-resolution atmospheric simulations of the past and future. We investigated heavy precipitation over Southern Africa, coastal South Africa, Cape Town, and the KwaZulu-Natal province in eastern South Africa. Coastal precipitation extremes are projected to intensify, double in intensity in KwaZulu-Natal, and weaken in Cape Town. Extremes are not projected to occur more often in the 21st century than in the last decades.
18 Aug 2023
Agronomic and edaphic drought relations. A semiarid rangeland case
Juan J. Martin-Sotoca, Ernesto Sanz, Antonio Saa-Requejo, Rubén Moratiel, Andrés F. Almeida-Ñauñay, and Ana M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-145, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
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This work includes vegetation (VCI) and water content index (WCI) series from two semiarid rangeland areas in Spain. Based on then, a Z-score for both was calculated to use it as an anomaly index. In this way, we associated negative anomalies with drought episodes. Then, we study the relations of these negative anomalies to see if it is possible to use WCI as an alarm of agronomic drought (VCI negative anomaly). The description of the behaviour of both areas and their comparison are made.
08 Aug 2023
Predictive Understanding of Socioeconomic Flood Impact in Data-Scarce Regions Based on Channel Properties and Storm Characteristics: Application in High Mountain Asia (HMA)
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Wilmalis Rodriguez, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Binghao Lu, Dongjin Song, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-120, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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This study comprehends and predicts the socioeconomic effects of floods in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. We proposed a machine-learning strategy for mapping flood damages. We predicted the Lifeyears Index (LYI), which quantifies the financial cost and loss of life caused by floods, using variables including climate, geomorphology, and population. The study's overall goal is to offer useful information on flood susceptibility and subsequent risk mapping in the HMA region.
08 Aug 2023
Comparison of different rheological approaches and flow direction algorithms in a physically based debris flow model for data scarce regions
Leonardo Rodolfo Paul, Gean Paulo Michel, Heron Schwarz, Bruno Henrique Abatti, and Clarissa Guerra Salvador
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-119, 2023
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This research focuses on the development and testing of a process-based debris flow model with as little parametrization as possible for application in data-scarce regions. The model was built with different methods to calculate the velocities of the flow and its directions. The model was tested on Brazilian debris flow events and was capable of reproducing them with satisfactory accuracy. Depending on the resolution of the digital terrain model, there is an optimal method for flow direction.
03 Aug 2023
Probabilistic seismic risk assessment for cities: Counterfactual analysis in a Chilean case study
Rosita Jünemann, Alejandro Urrutia, Monserrat Damian, Oscar Ortiz, Felipe Zurita, and Jorge G. F. Crempien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-141, 2023
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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We developed a probabilistic seismic risk assessment model and applied it to a coastal city in Chile, incorporating high-resolution exposure model and Monte Carlo simulations for seismic hazard. Evaluating various counterfactual scenarios of building stock, we quantitatively identified the most effective mitigation options, considering not only physical damage but also economic losses and casualties. The method has potential use as a valuable public policy planning tool for decision-makers.
01 Aug 2023
Analysis of landslide and mudflow scenarios in loess and clay soils that caused tragic incidents in Uzbekistan
Rustam Niyazov, Ibragim Uralov, and Fazliddin Anorboyev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-110, 2023
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In Uzbekistan, systematic studies of landslide processes began in 1958 with the establishment of the Bostanlyk Landslide Station. Over the years, in response to tragic incidents, it evolved into the Special Engineering-Geological Expedition in 1991, and later in 1994, it transformed into the State Service for Monitoring of Hazardous Geological Processes under the State Committee of Geology.
31 Jul 2023
Brief communication: Soil moisture observations reconcile the discrepancy in detecting tornado early-stage track during the 24–25 March 2023 Mississippi outbreak
Jingyu Wang, Xianfeng Wang, Edward Park, and Yun Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-100, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Building upon the findings in a preceding study by the authors (Wang et al., 2023), this brief communication successfully applied the soil moisture-based tornado damage track detection method to the 24–25 March 2023 Mississippi outbreak. This study also found that the notable discrepancies between spotter reports and ground survey assessments at the tornado early stage can be reconciled using the new method.
18 Jul 2023
An estimate of excess mortality resulting from air pollution caused by wildfires in the eastern and central Mediterranean basin in 2021
Bin Zhou and Christoph Knote
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-111, 2023
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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This study estimates the loss of life caused by wildfires in the eastern and central Mediterranean basin in summer 2021. We used a computer model to simulate concentrations of air pollutants emitted from wildfires and estimated the resulting excess human deaths based on the most relevant evidence from literature. We found that wildfire-caused air pollution accounted for several hundred excess deaths. We estimate the effects of ozone to exceed those of particles created by wildfires.
23 Jun 2023
Modeling and evaluation of the susceptibility to landslide events using machine learning algorithms in the province of Chañaral, Atacama region, Chile
Francisco Parra, Jaime González, Max Chacón, and Mauricio Marín
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-72, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 12 comments)
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The objective of this work is to evaluate the susceptibility of mass removal in the province of Chañaral, Chile through the comparison of Machine Learning algorithms and the choice of factors. The results indicate that the most accurate algorithm in the study area corresponds to RF. On the other hand, and from 23 conditioning factors, 7 are chosen, which maximize the accuracy of the model. The results of this study are useful for the planning of relevant institutions.
20 Jun 2023
Windstorm damage relations – Assessment of storm damage functions in complex terrain
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-90, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The benefits of establishing wind storm damage relationships are twofold: 1) forecasting losses and 2) assessment of the damages post event. The present study uses the daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns in the complex terrain of Norway.
08 Jun 2023
Prediction of landslide induced debris’ severity using machine learning algorithms: a case of South Korea
Tuganishuri Jérémie, Chan-Young Yune, Gihong Kim, Seung Woo Lee, Manik Adhikari, and Sang-Guk Yum
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-73, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The prediction of the size of rainfall-induced debris in South Korea was analyzed. The model suitability was carried out and Random forest was the most suitable for the Size of debris prediction. The most contributing factor in the model was slope length and the most vulnerable region to higher frequency and severe debris was Gangwon province. The findings may be used for rainfall induced-debris prevention policies and post-disaster rehabilitation planning.
13 Apr 2023
Non-landslide sampling and ensemble learning techniques to improve landslide susceptibility mapping
Chao Zhou, Yue Wang, Ying Cao, Ramesh P. Singhc, Bayes Ahmed, Mahdi Motagh, Yang Wang, and Ling Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-44, 2023
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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We found that the altitude (< 240 m) and distance to rivers (< 300 m) emerged as important factors for the cause of landslides. LR-MLP-Boosting achieves the highest prediction accuracy. The coupling models outperform the corresponding single models and Boosting algorithm performs better than the Bagging algorithm. High-quality non-landslide samples enhance the accuracy of LSM. They can be effectively obtained by using the LR model to constrain its selection range.
04 Apr 2023
Review article: Deterministic seismic hazard assessment of the area comprised between west Gulf of Cádiz and east Alboran Sea
Adrián José Rosario Beltré, Carlos Paredes Bartolomé, and Miguel Llorente Isidro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-52, 2023
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
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The Ibero-Maghrebian region has been the scene of major natural disasters that have been devastating for the coasts of the southern Iberian Peninsula and North Africa. In our study, we carried out a DSHA in the marine strip between the W of the Gulf of Cádiz and the E of the Alboran Sea, and the results show that PGA values of up to 1.0 g have been reached in certain areas, making them potential tsunamigenic or submarine landslide sources.
30 Mar 2023
Local perception and adaptation strategies to landslide occurrence in the Kivu catchment of Rwanda
Ma-Lyse Nema, Bachir Saley Mahaman, Arona Diedhiou, and Assiel Mugabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-47, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 13 comments)
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My early experience inspired me to write this paper because I was always curious about the reasons behind the frequent landslides that occurred in the area where I was born. Now, my dream has come true because this study was centered on the same region, same people, and because I discovered the causes and preventative measures for landslides in my area. I hope that when establishing policies for disaster management in the study area, decision-makers will take these results into consideration.
21 Mar 2023
Short-term prediction of extreme sea-level at the Baltic Sea coast by Random Forests
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-21, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The prediction of extreme coastal sea level, e.g. caused by a storm surge, is operationally carried out with dynamical computer models. These models are expensive to run and still display some limitations in predicting the height of extremes. We present a successful purely data-driven machine learning model to predict extreme sea levels along the Baltic Sea coast a few days in advance. The method is also able to identify the critical predictors for the different Baltic Sea regions.
10 Mar 2023
Earthquake Response Timeliness: Disaster Managers Experience in Responding to Earthquakes in Iran
Reza Hassanzadeh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-12, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-12, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This paper explores the timeliness of main response activities in the Bam earthquake in order to shed light in disaster response effectiveness in the aftermath of the earthquake.
20 Feb 2023
An integrated, replicable Landslide Early Warning System for informal settlements – case study in Medellín, Colombia
Moritz Gamperl, John Singer, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, Lisa Seiler, Julian Castañeda, David Cerón-Hernandez, and Kurosch Thuro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-20, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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We developed a system which can help improve the resilience of informal settlements in mountainous areas against shallow landslides. This system comprises a monitoring system which is specially designed for such areas and an according social system, the goal of which is to include the local residents in every step. We here present this system and the tools for it's further improvement by and with the scientific community, as well as endangered on-site communities.
09 Feb 2023
Spatial snowpack properties in a snow-avalanche release area: An extreme dry-slab avalanche case on Mt. Nodanishoji, Japan, in 2021
Yuta Katsuyama, Takafumi Katsushima, Satoru Adachi, and Yukari Takeuchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-5, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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An extreme dry-slab snow-avalanche, the second largest in Japan, occurred on 10 Jan. 2021 at Mt. Nodanishoji, Gifu, Japan. Based on a snow depth distribution observed by an unmanned aerial vehicle and a numerical snowpack simulation in the avalanche release area, the avalanche was caused by two heavy snowfall events, ~3 and ~10 days before the avalanche onset. These two snowfall events caused two different weak layers made of precipitation particles and associated slabs above other weak layers.
18 Jan 2023
Linking torrential events in the Northern French Alps to regional and local atmospheric conditions
Juliette Blanchet, Alix Reverdy, Antoine Blanc, Jean-Dominique Creutin, Périne Kiennemann, and Guillaume Evin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-276, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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We study the atmospheric conditions at the origin of damaging torrential events in the Northern French Alps over the long run. We consider seven atmospheric variables that describe the nature of the air masses involved and the possible triggers of precipitation and we try to isolate the most discriminating variables. The results show that humidity and particularly humidity transport plays the greatest role under westerly flows while instability potential is mostly at play under southerly flows.
10 Jan 2023
More than one landslide per road kilometer – surveying and modelling mass movements along the Rishikesh-Joshimath (NH-7) highway, Uttarakhand, India
Jürgen Mey, Ravi Kumar Guntu, Alexander Plakias, Igo Silva de Almeida, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-295, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-295, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The current socioeconomic development in the Himalayan region leads to a rapid expansion of the road network and an increase in the exposure to landslides. Our study along the NH-7 demonstrates the scale of this challenge as we detect more than one partially or fully road-blocking landslide per road kilometer. We identify the main controlling variables, i.e. slope angle, rainfall amount and lithology. As our approach uses a minimum of data, it can be extended to more complicated road networks.
21 Nov 2022
Multi-scale EO-based agricultural drought monitoring system for operative irrigation networks management
Chiara Corbari, Nicola Paciolla, Giada Restuccia, and Ahmad Al Bitar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-260, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
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We developed an EO-based agricultural drought index (ADMOS) for irrigation management. ADMOS identifies drought levels using rainfall, soil moisture, surface temperature and vegetation anomalies from multiple satellite data. ADMOS was tested in two Italian areas, diverse in climate, crop and irrigation. In one, ADMOS and irrigation volumes were negatively correlated; while in the other, no correlation was found, because the same irrigation is applied every year.
14 Nov 2022
Central European wind and precipitation compound events are not just due to winter storms
Miloslav Müller, Marek Kašpar, and Vojtěch Bližňák
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-264, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Unlike other studies on wind-precipitation compound events, we used station data from all seasons and found a rather complex distribution of such events within Central Europe. Their frequency is maximal in the cold half-years at mountain stations in the west, because strong winds and heavy precipitation are associated with the same circulation pattern there. Towards the east, warm half-year compound events associated with thunderstorms start to predominate mainly in lowlands.
28 Oct 2022
Review article: Current State of Deep Learning Application to Water-related Disaster Management in Developing Countries
Kola Yusuff Kareem, Yeonjeong Seong, Shiksha Bastola, and Younghun Jung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-249, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Globally, data-driven approaches for mitigating water-induced disaster risk have gained momentum in developed countries over the last three decades but sadly, few publications emerged from developing countries, thereby indicating slow adoption. Our Trend analysis authenticated this hypothesis. Through bibliometric and theory-based analysis, we identified China as the country with the most impressive deep learning adoption while revealing that model deployment is lacking in developing countries.
12 Sep 2022
Freeboard Life-Cycle Benefit-Cost Analysis of a Rental Single-family Residence for Landlord, Tenant, and Insurer
Ehab Gnan, Rubayet Bin Mostafiz, Md Adilur Rahim, Carol J. Friedland, Robert V. Rohli, Arash Taghinezhad, and Ayat Al Assi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-222, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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This research provides a method of identifying the economically optimal elevation of single-family homes at the time of construction. A case study 2,500 ft2 home suggests that elevating by two feet is wise, with an investment of $10,403 saving $21,572, at a 7 % discount rate. Flood premium savings is $15,536 while adding $52/month on a 30-year mortgage at a 3.375 % rate. NFIP insurance premium decreases by $107/month. The research is a first step in ensuring greater resilience to the flood hazard.
27 Jul 2022
Holistic planning of human, water, and environmental impacts for regional flood management: A case study of aging dam infrastructure
Cyndi Vail Castro and Hanadi Said Rifai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-193, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Existing dams are aging and no longer meet needed capacities for flood protection. Design of alternatives for retrofit lack rigorous consideration of social and environmental co-benefits. The typical analysis prioritizes flood protection and hydrological benefits. We demonstrate methods for alternative mitigation analysis using the Addicks and Barker Reservoirs in Houston, Texas. The study illustrates how flood management strategies can be integrated explicitly with socio-environmental factors.
13 Jul 2022
An atmospheric approach to the flood disaster in the Western Black Sea region (Turkey) on 10–12 August 2021
Onur Halis, Barbaros Gönençgil, and Zahide Acar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-185, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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In this study, the synoptic conditions of extreme precipitation in the provinces of Sinop, Kastamonu and Bartın were investigated. As a result of the heavy rains that fell on these provinces in three days, Bartın Ulus; Kastamonu Azdavay, İnebolu, Bozkurt, Küre and Pınarbaşı districts and Sinop Ayancık districts were affected by the flood. 82 people (71 in Kastamonu, 10 in Sinop, and 1 in Bartın) lost their lives due to the flood.
07 Jun 2022
Spatial Distribution of Vulnerability to Extreme Flood: in provincial scale of China
Wei Li, Jianni Yi, Jie Liu, Wei Ge, Hexiang Zhang, and Yutie Jiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-136, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 15 comments)
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Extreme flood disaster pose a great threat to people. An improved model was used to calculate the vulnerability in China. The results show that a decreasing trend from the regions : (1) high population density to low population density, (2) economically developed to economically backward, (3) the eastern coastal to the central agricultural provinces and then to the southwest, northwest and northeast. The result can provide support for the government's capital and manpower arrangements.
19 May 2022
Multi-hazard Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment for Australia
Cameron Do and Yuriy Kuleshov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-139, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Tropical cyclone (TC) risk over Australia was assessed focusing on the impacts on population and infrastructure from hazards of wind, storm surge, flooding and landslides. The risk posed by all hazards was highest for coastal areas of east, north and north-west of Australia, with flood and landslide hazards also affecting several inland areas. The resulting maps of risk will provide decision-makers with the information needed to further reduce TC risk, save lives, and reduce economic losses.
25 Apr 2022
Multi-mission altimetry data to evaluate hydrodynamic model-based stage-discharge rating curves in flood-prone Mahanadi River, India
Pankaj R. Dhote, Joshal K. Bansal, Vaibhav Garg, Praveen K. Thakur, and Ankit Agarwal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-101, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In the present paper, we have developed framework to establish virtual stage-discharge gauging network in sparsely gauged basin using hydrodynamic modelling and satellite altimetry data. The publication of the work will provide more insights to hydraulic community dealing with flood hazard in sparsely gauged basins, on how to monitor extreme river flow events using remote sensing data at ungauged locations.
22 Apr 2022
A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Algorithms for Snowfall Prediction Models in South Korea
Moon-Soo Song, Hong-Sik Yun, Jae-Joon Lee, and Sang-Guk Yum
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-118, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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In this study, emerging engineering techniques such as machine learning and deep learning technique was applied to predict heavy snowfall prediction in the Korean Peninsula. More specifically, it was observed that the predictive model using the RFR algorithm had the best performance based on a comparison between the observed and predicted data. In addition, it was observed that the performance of the ensemble models (RFR and XGB) was better than that of the single regression models.
12 Apr 2022
Model Comparisons for Predicting Grassland Fire Occurrence Probability in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China
Chang Chang, Yu Chang, Zaiping Xiong, Xiaoying Ping, Heng Zhang, Meng Guo, and Yuanman Hu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-72, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Random forest model had the highest fitting goodness to Inner Mongolia grassland fires from 2000 to 2018. The influence of 9 drivers on grassland fire was spatially unbalanced. Meteorological factors were of great importance to grassland fire. In Inner Mongolia, different areas had different sensitivities to different drivers. Thus, the grassland fire management strategy based on local conditions should be advocated.
08 Apr 2022
Exploring the utility of social media data for urban flood impact assessment in data scarce cities
Kaihua Guo, Mingfu Guan, Haochen Yan, and Faith Ka Shun Chan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-109, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This study investigated the utility of social media in urban flood assessment using the case of 2020 China Chengdu flooding. We presented an efficient workflow to collect, process and identify unstructured flood related data in near real-time during a storm event. Based on identified social media database and 232 flood sites, this study shows that social media data can provide valuable spatial and timely information for urban flooding emergency management.
04 Apr 2022
Water shortage: Assessment and Analysis on a Regional Scale
Yuri Marques Macedo, Adriano Lima Troleis, and Lutiane Queiroz de Almeida
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-86, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This research consists in the elaboration of a water shortage risk index, with an innovative character for the area of disaster risk reduction (DRR). The index was built from 19 variables that structure 4 indicators: Environmental; infrastructure; state planning and socio-economy. The results showed that 49 % of the analyzed municipalities have high and very high risk of water shortages, in addition to 40 % medium risk, which denotes the urgency of the problem in the state.
01 Apr 2022
A Scenario-based Case Study: AI to analyse casualties from landslides in Chittagong Metropolitan Area, Bangladesh
Fahim Sufi, Edris Alam, and Abu Islam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-90, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 23 comments)
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Using the landslide inventory of Chittagong Metropolitan Area (CMA), we created a new Artificial Intelligence (AI) based insight system for the town planners and senior disaster recovery strategists of Chittagong, Bangladesh. The users of our system can select a particular kind of scenario out of the exhaustive list of 1.054X1041 possible scenario sets and our AI-based system will immediately predict how many casualties are likely to occur based on the selected kind of scenario.
31 Mar 2022
Spatiotemporial seismicity pattern of the Taiwan orogen
Yi-Ying Wen, Chien-Chih Chen, Strong Wen, and Wei-Tsen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-114, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Knowing the spatiotemporial seismicity patterns prior to impending large earthquakes might help to the earthquake hazard assessment. Several recent moderate earthquakes occurred in the various regions of Taiwan, which help to further investigate the spatiotemporal seismic pattern related to the regional tectonic stress. We should pay attention when seismicity decrease of 2.5 < M < 4.5 events around southern Central Range, or the accelerating seismicity of 3 < M < 5 events appears in central Taiwan.
22 Mar 2022
Site Characterization vis-à-vis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Disaster Potential Modelling in the Himalayan and Sub-Himalayan Tectonic Ensemble from Kashmir Himalaya to Northeast India at the backdrop of the updated Seismic Hazard of the Indian Subcontinent
Sankar Kumar Nath, Anand Srivastava, Arpita Biswas, Jyothula Madan, Chitralekha Ghatak, Arnab Sengupta, Pritam Singh, and Siddhartha Bhaumick
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-66, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-66, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This study appraises surface-consistent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard via site characterization of the Himalayan and Sub-Himalayan Tectonic Ensemble comprising of Kashmir Himalaya to Northeast India and SELENA-based urban structural impact of this hazard for all the Cities of this Ensemble thus bringing in an unique regional-local hybrid seismic hazard-disaster model for pre-disaster preparedness and post-disaster rehabilitation and future disaster management.
14 Mar 2022
Assessing the impacts of tropical cyclones on rice production in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam
Kai Wan Yuen, Adam D. Switzer, Paul P. S. Teng, and Janice Ser Huay Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-4, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Few databases provide standardized reporting of disaster-related agricultural damage and loss. We compiled cyclone-induced rice damage data from 1970–2018 in four countries in Asia (Bangladesh, Myanmar, Philippines and Vietnam). Of the 1,046 cyclone events recorded, 13 % or 138 events were associated with rice damage. Philippines and Vietnam accounted for 128 of these events. While higher cyclone intensity tend to cause most damage, lower intensity events were more frequent.
14 Mar 2022
A coupled modelling system to assess the effect of Mediterranean storms under climate change
Riccardo Alvise Mel, Teresa Lo Feudo, Massimo Miceli, Salvatore Sinopoli, and Mario Maiolo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-67, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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In this work we present a coupled modelling system to compute the wind climate and the hydrodynamic two-dimensional field in coastal areas, with particular reference to the Marine Experimental Station of Capo Tirone (Italy). We combined sea level rise and extreme storm projections with the most recent georeferenced territorial data.
11 Mar 2022
Spatio-temporal analysis of the role of climate cycles on landslide activity: the case of Majorca (Spain)
Juan Antonio Luque-Espinar, Rosa María Mateos, Roberto Sarro, Eduardo Peña, Cristina Reyes-Carmona, and Mónica Martínez-Corbella
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-50, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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A spatio-temporal analysis of climate cycles on the island of Majorca (Spain) and their correlation with the landslide inventory is presented. Using spectral analysis techniques, the main climatic cycles that control the rainy periods on the island have been identified. Using geostatistical methods, the distribution of rainfall was mapped, as was the spatial representation of the statistical significance of the different natural cycles to define the areas of greatest danger from heavy rainfall.
09 Mar 2022
Earthquake-induced landslides in Haiti: seismotectonic and climatic influences, size-frequency relationships
Hans-Balder Havenith, Kelly Guerrier, Romy Schlögel, Anne-Sophie Mreyen, Sophia Ulysse, Anika Braun, Karl-Henry Victor, Newdeskarl Saint-Fleur, Léna Cauchie, Dominique Boisson, and Claude Prépetit
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-83, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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First analyses of landslide distribution and triggering factors are presented for the region affected by the Mw = 7.2 earthquake, 2021, in Haiti. The landslide inventory created for the 2021 event is compared with catalogues compiled by others both for the 2021 and 2010 events. Related analyses show that the larger total area of landslides triggered in 2021, can be explained, e.g., by (a) the stronger shaking intensity in 2021, (b) a climatic influence on slope stability in the 2021-affected area.
08 Mar 2022
Hazard Assessment of Earthquake-Induced Landslides Based on a Mechanical Slope Unit Extraction Method, A Case in Ghana
Peter Antwi Buah, Yingbin Zhang, Pengcheng Yu, Haiying Fu, Mingzhe Zhou, Qingdong Wang, and Jing Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-43, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
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This study aims to assess the hazardous impact of an earthquake-induced landslide in Ghana using a mechanical slope unit extraction method. This research is an experimental simulation study that looks at how an earthquake of a certain magnitude could cause a landslide in Ghana (West Africa). The research proposed a method for slope unit extraction used it alongside the Newmark's displacement method to predict the possibility of earthquake induced landslide in Ghana.
24 Feb 2022
Time-dependent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for Western Sumatra, Indonesia, Using Space-Time Earthquake Rupture Modelling and Stochastic Source Scenarios
Ario Muhammad, Katsuichiro Goda, and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-59, 2022
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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This study develops a novel framework of time-dependent (TD) probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) combining a total of ≥ 100,000 spatiotemporal earthquakes (EQ) rupture models and 6,300 probabilistic tsunami simulations to evaluate the tsunami hazards and compare them with the time-independent (TI) PTHA results. The proposed model can capture the uncertainty of future TD tsunami hazards and produces slightly higher hazard estimates than the TI model for short-term periods (< 30 years).
09 Feb 2022
Are the Rich less Prone to Flooding? A Case Study on Flooding in the Southern Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot and Typhoon Fanapi
Yen-Lien Kuo, Ya-Ming Liu, Hone-Jay Chu, and Hung-Ching Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-38, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
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This study investigated correlations between the flood probability and the average household income of villages. It was found that high income villages have significantly lower probability of being flooded than low income villages in Southern Taiwan. The propensity score matching was adopted to compare villages with similar hazard (rain), exposure (population), and vulnerabilities (elevation and house price).
08 Feb 2022
Quantifying the probability and uncertainty of multiple-structure rupture and recurrence intervals in Taiwan
Chieh-Chen Chang, Chih-Yu Chang, and Chung-Han Chan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-46, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 15 comments)
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A rupture taking place along several faults can cause a large earthquake and often leads to disaster. This study identifies structures that could rupture simultaneously based on a physics-based model and proposes a set of formulas to evaluate their recurrence intervals and uncertainties. Our approach’s procedure can be applied to reexamining the composite ruptures of the seismogenic structure system in Taiwan and other regions, beneficial to subsequent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment.
04 Feb 2022
Delimiting rockfall runout zones using reach probability values simulated with a Monte-Carlo based 3D trajectory model
Luuk Dorren, Frédéric Berger, Franck Bourrier, Nicolas Eckert, Charalampos Saroglou, Massimiliano Schwarz, Markus Stoffel, Daniel Trappmann, Hans-Heini Utelli, and Christine Moos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, 2022
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In the daily practice of rockfall hazard analysis, trajectory simulations are used to delimit runout zones. To do so, the expert needs to separate "realistic" from "unrealistic" simulated groups of trajectories. This is often done on the basis of reach probability values. This paper provides a basis for choosing a reach probability threshold value for delimiting the rockfall runout zone, based on recordings and simulations of recent rockfall events at 18 active rockfall sites in Europe.
26 Jan 2022
Modelling the compound flood hydrodynamics under mesh convergence and future storm surge events in Brisbane River Estuary, Australia
Usman Khalil, Shuqing Yang, Muttucumaru Sivakumar, Keith Enever, Muhammad Zain Bin Riaz, and Mariam Sajid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-284, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Flooding is a prevalent and most destructive catastrophe worldwide, which poses a severe threat to lives and properties. For effective coastal flood management to reduce flood adverse impacts it is necessary to investigate the flooding processes and their joint interaction in a coastal area. This paper selected Brisbane River Australia as an example to explores compound flooding by computing variances in coastal flood assessments resulting from a separation of tidal and riverine processes.
04 Jan 2022
Incorporating historical information to improve extreme sea level estimates
Leigh R. MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando J. Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-406, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-406, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Extreme sea levels represent one of the most damaging natural hazards due to their potential to cause flooding. We developed a new method which incorporates historical information with systematically recorded sea levels, leading to improved estimates of extreme sea levels with reduced uncertainties. Such information helps to improve coastal flood risk analyses, which in turn allows for more efficient planning of coastal protection measures.
04 Jan 2022
The unusually long cold spell and the snowstorm Filomena in Spain in January 2021
Philipp Zschenderlein and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-396, 2022
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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In early January 2021, Spain was affected by two extreme events – an unusually long cold spell and a heavy snowfall event associated with extratropical cyclone Filomena. In the study, we analyse the synoptic-dynamic development of the two extreme events. Cold air from the north was advected towards Spain and between 07 and 10 January, cyclone Filomena was responsible for major parts of the snowfall event. During this event, temperature and moisture contrasts accross Spain were very high.
17 Dec 2021
The Emergency Accessibility Analysis based on Traffic Big Data and Flood Scenario Simulation in the context of Shanghai Hotel industry
Qian Yao, Jiangyang Lin, Yong Shi, Zhihao Chen, and Qingwei Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-368, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-368, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The article proposes an approach to evaluate the emergence response capability to tourism. This approach combines the flood simulation method, traffic big data with the path navigation interface of the web. The study found that emergency response from Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) has significant relationships with the situation of transportation, the location of hotels, the intensity of flood inundation and the location of the urban FRS. It provides reference for tourism disaster management.
17 Dec 2021
Mapping Transboundary Climate Change Risk: the case study of the Trinational Metropolitan Area Upper Rhine Area
Nils Riach, Nicolas Scholze, and Rüdiger Glaser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-385, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-385, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In this study we examine the spatial patterns of risk towards climate change and climatic extremes in the “Trinational Metropolitan Region Upper Rhine” (TMU). Following the concept of risk analysis, we identify the regional dimension of climatic stressors in relation to the socio-economic dimension. The results show differentiated spatial patterns of risk with cross-border clusters i.e. transnational corridors.
15 Dec 2021
Impact of spatial data uncertainty in debris flow susceptibility analysis
Laurie Jayne Kurilla and Giandomenico Fubelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-364, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-364, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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Debris flow research, at broader geographic coverages, requires the use of inventories of past events. Such information may not have precise event locations, resulting in current and future susceptibility models with a lower confidence level. This research showcases the problems associated with inaccurate locations in identifying the conditions which predispose an area to debris flows and provides a novel approach to presenting such uncertainties to the users of the resulting models.
01 Dec 2021
Global to regional overview of floods fatality: the 1951–2020 period
Hossein Hamidifar and Michael Nones
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-357, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards. In this research, flooding events that have killed more than 10 people in the 1951–2020 period have been studied, analysing the EM-DAT database. The results show that the severity of flood-related deaths is equally distributed worldwide, but present some specific geographical patterns, with Southern, Eastern, and South-Eastern regions of Asia characterized by high flood-related casualties.
17 Nov 2021
Improving computational efficiency of GLUE method for hydrological model uncertainty and parameter estimation using CPU-GPU hybrid high performance computer cluster
Depeng Zuo, Guangyuan Kan, Hongquan Sun, Hongbin Zhang, and Ke Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-344, 2021
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method has been thrived for decades, huge number of applications in the field of hydrological model have proved its effectiveness in uncertainty and parameter estimation. In this study, we developed a CPU-GPU hybrid computer cluster-based highly parallel large-scale GLUE method to improve its computational efficiency.
09 Nov 2021
Understanding rockfalls along the national road G318 in China: from source area identification to hazard probability simulation
Lixia Chen, Yu Zhao, Yuanyao Li, Lei Gui, Kunlong Yin, and Dhruba Pikha Shrestha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-303, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-303, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
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Rockfall is frequent along the national road (G318) in China. In order to identify the location of roadside collapse to reduce the threat to the road. The source area, movement range, time probability, and scale probability of collapse disaster all need to be calculated quantitatively. Combined with the spatial probability, time probability, and scale probability of collapse, the risk formula is used to get the risk of collapse.
02 Nov 2021
Characteristics of joint heavy precipitation and high sea level events on the Finnish coast in 1961–2020
Mika Rantanen, Kirsti Jylhä, Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, and Ulpu Leijala
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-314, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Using sea level and precipitation observations, we analysed the meteorological characteristics of days when heavy precipitation and high sea level occur simultaneously in Finland. We found that around 5 % of all heavy precipitation and high sea level events on the Finnish coast are so called compound events when they both occur simultaneously, and these events were associated with close passages of mid-latitude cyclones. Our results act as a basis for compound flooding research in Finland.
21 Oct 2021
Brief Communication: A case study of risk assessment for facilities associated with earthquake-induced liquefaction potential in Kimhae City, South Korea
Sang-Soo Jeon, Daeyang Heo, and Sang-Seung Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-287, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Liquefaction causes secondary damage after earthquakes; however, liquefaction related phenomena were rarely reported in Korea. They demonstrated that Korea is not safe against the liquefaction induced by earthquakes. The results indicate that a Mw = 5.0 earthquake induces a small and low level of liquefaction, resulting in slight risk for facilities, but a Mw = 6.5 earthquake induces a large and high level of liquefaction, resulting in a severe risk for facilities.
19 Oct 2021
How to use empirical data to improve transportation infrastructure risk assessment
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Sadhana Nirandjan, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-277, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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We use multi-source empirical damage data to generate vulnerability curves and assess the risk of transportation infrastructure to rainfall-induced hazards. The results show large variations in the shape of the vulnerability curves and risk of railway infrastructure in China across the different regions. The usage of multi-source empirical data offer opportunities to perform risk assessments that include spatial detail among regions.
02 Sep 2021
Characteristics of Heatwaves in Africa: Morocco 2000 and South Africa 2015/16
Chloe Brimicombe, Claudia Di Napoli, Rosalind Cornforth, Florian Pappenberger, Celia Petty, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-242, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Heatwaves are an increasing risk to African communities. This hazard can have a negative impact on peoples lives and in some cases results in their death. This study shows new information about heatwave characteristics through a list of heatwave events that have been reported for the African continent from 1980 until 2020. Case studies are useful helps to inform the development of early warning systems and forecasting, which is an urgent priority and needs significant improvement.
02 Sep 2021
Storm surges and storm wind waves in the Caspian Sea in the present and future climate
Anna Pavlova, Stanislav Myslenkov, Victor Arkhipkin, and Galina Surkova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-244, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-244, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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This article presents new information about storm surges, wind waves, and their recurrence in the Caspian Sea based on the results of numerical modeling. The storm surges maximum is 2.7 m and it was observed in the northern part of the Sea for the modeling period (1979–2017). The extreme sea level values in the northern part of the Caspian Sea for the return period 100 years is close to 3 m. The significant wave height maximum is 8.2 m.
02 Sep 2021
Hanging glacier monitoring with icequake repeaters and seismic coda wave interferometry: a case study of the Eiger hanging glacier
Małgorzata Chmiel, Fabian Walter, Lukas Preiswerk, Martin Funk, Lorenz Meier, and Florent Brenguier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-205, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The hanging glacier on Switzerland’s Mount Eiger regularly produces ice avalanches which threaten tourist activity and nearby infrastructure. Reliable forecasting remains a challenge as physical processes leading to ice rupture are not fully understood yet. We propose a new method for hanging glacier monitoring using repeating englacial seismic signals. Our approach allows monitoring temperature and meltwater driven changes occurring in the hanging glacier at seasonal and diurnal timescales.
24 Aug 2021
Hydrological Drought across Peninsular Malaysia: Implication of Drought Index
Hasrul Hazman Hasan, Siti Fatin Mohd Razali, Nur Shazwani Muhammad, and Asmadi Ahmad
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-249, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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This study emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate time scale in drought assessment. The calculation of SDI from different time scales in this study can represent the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of hydrological drought in Peninsular Malaysia.
23 Aug 2021
Identification of Rip Current Hazards Using Fluorescent Dye And Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (A Case Study Of Drini Beach, Gunungkidul, Indonesia)
Hendy Fatchurohman, Alfiatun Nur Khasanah, and Ahmad Cahyadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-221, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
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Rip currents pose dangers to Drini Beach, as evident from the increasing number of tourists and records of those affected by marine accidents. Based on the current tracing, the beach has a channel rip, which is persistent stationary and is controlled by the bathymetric conditions. It develops in the break in the reef flats with sand substrates in its bottom and in the break that is deeper than the surrounding reef flats.
14 Jul 2021
Evaluating the suitability of documents on the prevention of major risks intended for the general public
Laetitia Ferrer and Corinne Curt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-192, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Providing preventive information to the public is one of the major challenges in the risk management. We developed indicators and a decision support model used to analyze and improve the suitability of a document on the prevention of major risks intended for the general public. They can be used by the town halls and design offices of any municipality without the need to call on experts or significant human or financial resources.
09 Jul 2021
The catastrophe of the Niedów dam – the causes of the dam's breach, its development and consequences
Stanisław Kostecki and Robert Banasiak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-199, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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The paper analyses and explains the conditions and causes of the Niedów dam’s failure in 2010, with special attention given to the mechanism and dynamics of the compound breaching process, in which the dam’s reinforcement played a remarkable role. The paper also describes a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model for simulating the flood event along the Lusatian Neisse River, including the determination of the dam’s peak outflow.
17 Jun 2021
Hydrological Drought across Peninsular Malaysia: Implication of drought index
Hasrul Hazman Hasan, Siti Fatin Mohd Razali, Nur Shazwani Muhammad, and Asmadi Ahmad
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-176, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-176, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
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This study emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate time scale in drought assessment. The calculation of SDI from different time scales in this study can represent the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of hydrological drought in Peninsular Malaysia.
10 Jun 2021
Integrating social, economic, and environmental risk into flood management of aging dam infrastructure by combining cost-benefit and multi-criteria decision analyses
Cyndi V. Castro and Hanadi S. Rifai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-144, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Aging dams in the US require retrofit and management to ensure their functionality. The planning process is often driven by the cost of the retrofit and the benefits that would be derived. This paper integrates environmental risks and social impacts into a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to guide reservoir management planning and enhance mitigation effectiveness and addressing of flood vulnerabilities. Importantly, the framework integrates stakeholder input into the analysis.
25 May 2021
Assessment of Flood Susceptibility Using Support Vector Machine in the Belt and Road Region
Jun Liu, Junnan Xiong, Weiming Cheng, Yi Li, Yifan Cao, Yufeng He, Yu Duan, Wen He, and Gang Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-80, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-80, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The Belt and Road region has frequent flooding, however, the spatial pattern of flood susceptibility here is not yet clear. To this end, this study used support vector machine to generate a flood susceptibility map of this region based on a novel method of non-flood point selection. More importantly, we introduced the flood susceptibility comprehensive index (FSCI) to quantitatively analyze the flood susceptibility levels of 7 sub-regions and 66 countries in the study area.
25 May 2021
Chronicle of a forecast flood: exposure and vulnerability on the southeast coast of Spain
Rubén Giménez-García, Víctor Ruiz-Álvarez, and Ramón García-Marín
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-134, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
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In recent decades the Mediterranean coast has experienced an increase in vulnerability and exposure to the danger of torrential rains. The significant increase in the number of floods and their consequent damage to the coastal belt, according to precipitation records, is related to a multiplication of exposure and vulnerability to these events, rather than an increase in extreme rainfall phenomena.
17 May 2021
Achieving Sendai Framework in Africa: Progress and challenges toward Target E
Nyandiko Nicodemus and Otwori Dennis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-132, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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The Sendai Framework and the SDGs markedly recognize the importance of the national and local DRR strategies. For example, the DRR strategies are also intended to deliver on monitoring the implementation of SDGs where Target E1 is contributing to SDG Goal 1 Target 1.5; Goal 11 Target 11.5 and 11b and Goal 13 Target 13.1.
26 Apr 2021
A data efficient machine learning model for autonomous operational avalanche forecasting
Manesh Chawla and Amreek Singh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-106, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Avalanche forecasting using machine learning models requires extensive past records of snow and avalanches. Such records maybe unavailable in several regions. In this paper we use Random Forest model for avalanche forecasting. The model requires significantly lesser past data than other published models to achieve a reasonable forecasting performance. Additionally the model gives valuable reasoning descriptions which are difficult to observe manually.
13 Apr 2021
Monitoring and analysis of Woda landslide stability (China) combined with InSAR, GNSS and meteorological data
Bingquan Li, Wenliang Jiang, Yongsheng Li, Yi Luo, Haitao Qian, Yanchao Wang, Qisong Jiao, Qingyun Zhang, Zihan Zhou, and Jingfa Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-101, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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To identify the boundaries and deformation distributions of the unstable areas, the results of space-borne SAR and field surveys were combined, and the spatial deformation characteristics and time evolution of the landslide were analysed. The factor inducing landslide deformation is concentrated heavy rainfall. The research results show that SAR/InSAR technology can reveal the surface deformation of a landslide body and characterize the active stage and development trend.
31 Mar 2021
Drought evolution characteristics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the last 100 years based on SPEI
Shengzhen Wang, Fenggui Liu, Qiang Zhou, Qiong Chen, Baicheng Niu, and Xingsheng Xia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-73, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The drought on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was studied in terms of its spatial and temporal distributions and its changing characteristics over the last 100 years in this paper. The drought on the plateau showed a clear gradual increase in aridity from southeast to northwest over the last 100 years. Besides, drought on the plateau exhibits apparent cyclical oscillations with a main period of 54 years and has different cyclical characteristics in different seasons.
29 Mar 2021
Evaluation of the resilience of fishery ports to typhoons: a case study
on Dongsha fishery port
Yachao Zhang, Xiaojie Zhang, Jufei Qiu, Aifeng Tao, Yanfen Deng, Jianli Zhao, Jianfeng Wang, and Wentao Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-82, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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After standard seawalls have been built, fishery ports become the structures most easily damaged during a typhoon. Assessments of the resilience of fishery ports to typhoon damage would be useful for identifying weaknesses and implementing corrective measures to protect fishing boats from a typhoon. This study describes a versatile methodology for conducting this type of quantitative assessment at fishery ports.
16 Mar 2021
A new approach to assess the impact of extreme temperature
conditions on social vulnerability
Ibolya Török, Adina-Eliza Croitoru, and Titus-Cristian Man
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-45, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The results of this research were obtained based on a selection of relevant socio-economic and climate-related variables, an improved methodological assessment, and a GIS-based approach. The analysis revealed that peripheral rural areas are characterized by a high level of vulnerability associated with a low level of resilience. We found, that due to the high poverty rate and limited access to resources and services, these areas encounter difficulties in coping with the impact of climate hazards.
05 Mar 2021
The Effect of the Wenchuan and Lushan Earthquakes on the Size
Distribution of Earthquakes along the Longmenshan Fault
Chun Hui, Changxiu Cheng, Shi Shen, Peichao Gao, Jin Chen, Jing Yang, and Min Zhao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-21, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 1 comment)
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This article quantify the effect of the Wenchuan MS 8.0 and Lushan MS 7.0 earthquakes on the size distribution of earthquakes along the Longmenshan fault. The results depict the decreasing trends of b values before the two large earthquakes in the study region. The major aftershock active periods of the Wenchuan MS 8.0 and Lushan MS 7.0 earthquakes were less than one year and ten months. Moreover, both large earthquakes do not change the pattern of
high in the north, low in the south.
19 Feb 2021
Evolution of the Tazones Lighthouse slope (Cantabrian coast, N
Spain). Multidisciplinary monitoring between 2018 and 2020
María José Domínguez-Cuesta, Pelayo González-Pumariega, Pablo Valenzuela, Carlos López-Fernández, Manuel Mora, Mónica Meléndez, Fernando Herrera, Miguel Ángel Marigil, Luis Pando, José Cuervas-Mons, and Montserrat Jiménez-Sánchez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-16, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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We are a multidisciplinary research group interested in the study of landscape dynamics and its interaction with human communities. At present, we are working in a project concerning with the evolution of the Cantabrian Coast cliffs. One of the studied areas is the Jurassic coast in which the Tazones Lighthouse slope is located. This represents an exceptional opportunity to analyse in real time the Jurassic cliffs retreat of the Cantabrian Coast, a question that remained not quantified.
08 Feb 2021
GNSS and RPAS integration techniques for studying landslide
dynamics: Application to the areas of Victoria and Colinas Lojanas,
(Loja, Ecuador)
Belizario A. Zárate Torres, Rachid El Hamdouni, and Tomas Fernández del Castillo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-32, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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This study analyzes the dynamics of two landslides in the city of Loja – Ecuador using GNSS and RPAS techniques. GNSS technique allowed the measurement of horizontal and vertical displacements and the RPAS technique obtained high-resolution orthophotos and digital surface models. Models were oriented with ground control points. Based on the field information and the results obtained, the two landslides present low speeds and due to their behavior, they can be classified as very slow flows.
20 Jan 2021
Assessing short-term climate change impacts on water supply at the Wupper catchment area, Germany
Maria Paula Lorza-Villegas, Rike Becker, Marc Scheibel, Tim aus der Beek, and Jackson Roehrig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-429, 2021
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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This study presents an example of a small-scale climate change analysis for a local water association, and how these results can provide valuable information for improved reservoir management. Results indicate a reduction in runoff for the spring season, while an increment during winter. Simulations of reservoir volume show that water stress by the end of 2024 is not unlikely, so sustainable adaptation measures should be considered. This approach can be applied to other reservoirs in the region.
11 Jan 2021
Integrated Multi-parametric Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and
Geographic Information System (GIS) based Spatial modelling for
Flood and Water logging Susceptibility Mapping: A case study of
English Bazar Municipality of Malda, West Bengal, India
Diyali Chattaraj, Biswajit Paul, and Subir Sarkar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-399, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-399, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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The present study pertains to identify and mapping of the water-logging susceptible zones in a municipality which has become a perennial deep rooted problem on the urban fabrics. By considering multi-criteria assessment of six natural and man-made factors the result reveals that 11.45 %, 3.05 % and 85.49 % area corresponds with highly vulnerable, low and moderately vulnerable respectively, is attributed to unplanned urban expansion in the hazardous low-lying area with inadequate drainage problem.
06 Jan 2021
Evaluating Spatiotemporal Patterns and Trends of Drought in Japan
Associated with Global Climatic Drivers
Ke Shi, Yoshiya Touge, and So Kazama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-416, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-416, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 9 comments)
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This study is the first to identify homogeneous regions with distinct drought characteristics over Japan and connect the drought in Japan with the global climatic drivers. In particular, two regions with similar drought spatiotemporal characteristics were first identified. Then we found that a lack of soil moisture could increase the risk of severe wildfires in these two regions. Finally, we identified the most significant global climatic drivers affecting these two regions.
06 Jan 2021
Three-dimensional deformation field analysis of the 2016 Kumamoto Mw 7.1 earthquake
Qingyun Zhang, Jingfa Zhang, Yongsheng Li, Bingqun Li, Quancai Xie, Sanming Luo, and Qingzun Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-408, 2021
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
05 Jan 2021
Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting model
(WRF) to downscaling extreme events over Northern Tunisia
Saoussen Dhib, Víctor Homar, Zoubeida Bargaoui, and Mariadelmar Vich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-376, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-376, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Previous evaluation of rainfall estimation by satellite algorithms showed an insufficient over Northern Tunisia. That was why we tried the WRF. We selected four heavy rainy days. For each day, 99 combinations of Cu and PBL are simulated. The sensitivity study highlighted the large difference in the estimation by the different schemes. The use of several verification techniques was extremely helpful to choose the best combinations for each event. The ensemble method gave very satisfying results.
17 Dec 2020
Fault distance-based approach in thermal anomaly
detection before strong Earthquakes
Arash Karimi Zarchi and Mohammad Reza Saradjian Maralan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-391, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This paper represents a proper input by combining temperature, fault and time for different thermal anomaly detection methods and then using them for estimating earthquake intensity.
Results show that the proposed input data has better outcome in each of the thermal anomaly detection methods compared to the ordinary input data and the estimated intensities of most earthquakes are very close to the actual intensities. This approach can be used as a tool for future unknown earthquakes prediction.
11 Dec 2020
Modeling of wildfire occurrence by using climate data and
effect of temperature increments
Amir Hossein Sadat Razavi, Majid Shafiepour Motlagh, Alireza Noorpoor, and Amir Houshang Ehsani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-353, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-353, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
23 Nov 2020
The catastrophe of the Niedów dam – the dam break causes,
development and consequences
Stanisław Kostecki and Robert Banasiak
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-372, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-372, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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The Niedów dam failure caused by an extreme flood event is described. A special emphasis is put on explaining the compound dam break mechanism, its dynamics and resulting outflow from the reservoir, leading to flooding over an extended downstream area. The flood wave propagation in a complex hydrological system is resolved with the use of hydrodynamic 2D modelling. The current prediction formulas for the dam break are also tested and discussed on their performance and usefulness.
14 Nov 2020
Tropical drought risk: estimates combining gridded
vulnerability and hazard data
Alexandra Nauditt, Kerstin Stahl, Erasmo Rodríguez, Christian Birkel, Rosa Maria Formiga-Johnsson, Kallio Marko, Hamish Hann, Lars Ribbe, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, and Joschka Thurner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-360, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Recurrent droughts are causing severe damages to tropical countries. We used gridded drought hazard and vulnerability data sets to map drought risk in four mesoscale rural tropical study regions in Latin America and Vietnam/Cambodia. Our risk maps clearly identified drought risk hotspots and displayed spatial and sector-wise distribution of hazard and vulnerability. As results were confirmed by local stakeholders our approach provides relevant information for drought managers in the Tropics.
05 Nov 2020
Comparison of statistical and analytical hierarchy process methods on flood susceptibility
mapping: in a case study of Tana sub-basin in northwestern Ethiopia
Azemeraw Wubalem, Gashaw Tesfaw, Zerihun Dawit, Belete Getahun, Tamirat Mekuria, and Muralitharan Jothimani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-332, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Flood susceptibility modeling and comparison of results of statistical and analytical hierarchy process methods in this area are essential for hazard reduction purposes. For this, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), bivariate, and multivariate statistical methods were used. The results for the area under the curve (AUC) are 99.1 % for the frequency ratio model is better than 86.9 % using AHP, 81.4 % using the logistic regression model, and 78.2 % using the information value model.
04 Nov 2020
Improving snowfall representation in climate simulations via
statistical models informed by air temperature and total
precipitation
Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons and Davide Faranda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-352, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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The objective motivating this study is the assessment of the impacts of winter climate extremes, which requires accurate simulation of snowfall. However, climate simulation models contain physical approximations, which result in biases that must be corrected using past data as a reference. We show how to exploit simulated temperature and precipitation to estimate snowfall from already bias-corrected variables, without requiring the elaboration of complex, multivariate bias adjustment techniques.
03 Nov 2020
Evaluation of Economic Impacts from Flood Damages Using Hybrid
Input-Output Analysis
Cholapat Jongdeepaisal, Kohei Yoshimura, and Seigo Nasu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-298, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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We introduce the hybrid I-O analysis to assess the flood scenario. We newly describe the economic impacts from flood damage into 2 phases, garbage cleaning and reconstruction. As a result, the cost arise from garbage cleaning services deduct the economy total production, while the cost for reconstruction induce an increase of demand for goods and services. In total, the local economy grow about 1.024 percent from flood scenario. Lastly, the model could adapt for various kind of scenarios.
29 Oct 2020
Numerical investigation on spectral geometries and their relation to
non-Gaussianity in sea states with occurrence of rogue waves: wind-sea dominated
events
Xingjie Jiang, Tingting Zhang, Dalu Gao, and Daolong Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-342, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-342, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 9 comments)
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Numerical investigation on spectral geometries and their relation to non-Gaussianity of sea states conducted based on the High-Order Spectral method. This study provides a base which allows quantitative investigation of the non-Gaussianity and the corresponding geometries in given sea states. The application in wind-sea dominated sea states presented quantitative support regarding the topic of “explaining formation of rogue waves without modulational instabilities”.
27 Oct 2020
Numerical investigation on the kinetic characteristics of the Yigong
landslide in Tibet, China
Zili Dai, Fawu Wang, Hufeng Yang, and Shiwei Qin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-289, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
22 Oct 2020
Pyroclastic flow mitigation strategies: a new perspective
for the red area
Mauro Iacuaniello, Andrea Montanino, Daniela De Gregorio, and Giulio Zuccaro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-320, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
17 Oct 2020
Land use and land cover change analysis of District Charsadda, Pakistan along Kabul River in 2010 flood: using an advance geographic information system and remote sensing techniques
Misbah Fida, Irshad Hussain, Wang Tao, Abdur Rashid, and Syed Amir Ali Shah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-255, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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This research study mainly focused on flood hazards, and its remedial measures by using geographic information systems and remote sensing techniques to control flood risks in the flood plain area of River Kabul in District Charsadda, Pakistan. The main objective of this study was to quantify pre and post-flood land-use and land-cover changes at District Charsadda, Pakistan. This study provides useful information about change detection, trends, and impacts of land-use/land-cover change.
17 Oct 2020
Quaternary lava tubes distribution in Jeju Island and their potential deformation risks
Jungrack Kim, Shih-Yuan Lin, and Jong-woo Oh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-321, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-321, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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A group of lava tubes on Jeju Island, Korea, constitutes predominant geological context. However, the threat of surface collapse by undiscovered lave tube networks haves been raised in connection with the recent infrastructure construction in Jeju Island. We therefore introduced InSAR techniques to measure the deformation of lava tube networks with machine learning applications and identified the ground deformation signals implying the instability of the shallow lava cavity networks.
13 Oct 2020
Review of different methods and techniques used for flood vulnerability analysis
Dilip Kumar and Rajib Kumar Bhattacharjya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-297, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-297, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
09 Oct 2020
Determination of Heavy Rain Damage-Triggering Rainfall Criteria Based on Data Mining
Jongsung Kim, Donghyun Kim, Changhyun Choi, Myungjin Lee, Yonsoo Kim, and Hung Soo Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-295, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-295, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration) has the same criteria for issuing a Heavy Rain Advisory (HRA) over the peninsula even though each region has different conditions Therefore, the aim of this study is to suggest the methodology for the determination of Heavy rain Damage-Triggering Rainfall Criteria (HD-TRC) that HRA can be issued in each region. As a result, HD-TRC showed an improvement of 15 % on average compared to HRA in all regions, while Advanced HD-TRC showed a 21 % improvement.
08 Oct 2020
Geophysical and geotechnical factors in urban planing: Bursa (Nilüfer, Osmangazi, and Yildirim) cases
Ferhat Özçep, Guldane Boyraz, Okan Tezel, Hakan Alp, Nuray Alpaslan, and Savaş Karabulut
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-301, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
07 Oct 2020
Rapid landslide identification using synthetic aperture radar amplitude change detection on the Google Earth Engine
Alexander L. Handwerger, Shannan Y. Jones, Mong-Han Huang, Pukar Amatya, Hannah R. Kerner, and Dalia B. Kirschbaum
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-315, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
Short summary
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The rapid and accurate mapping of landslides is critical for emergency response, disaster mitigation, and understanding landslide processes. Here we present a new approach to detect landslides anywhere in the world using freely available synthetic aperture radar data and open source tools in Google Earth Engine. Importantly, our methods do not require specialized processing software or training, which allows the broader hazards community to utilize these state-of-the-art remote sensing tools.
05 Oct 2020
Landslide risk zoning in Ruijin, Jiangxi, China
Xiaoting Zhou, Weicheng Wu, Ziyu Lin, Guiliang Zhang, Renxiang Chen, Yong Song, Zhiling Wang, Tao Lang, Yaozu Qin, Penghui Ou, Wenchao Huangfu, Yang Zhang, Lifeng Xie, Xiaolan Huang, Xiao Fu, Jie Li, Jingheng Jiang, Ming Zhang, Yixuan Liu, Shanling Peng, Chongjian Shao, Yonghui Bai, Xiaofeng Zhang, Xiangtong Liu, and Wenheng Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-270, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
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The paper is focused on landslides risk mapping and assessment using machine learning, notably, Random Forests algorithm, taking 19
geo-environmental factors into account. A number of innovative procedures were introduced in the research and reliable results of high accuracy obtained. We believe that the risk mapping approach developed in this paper is relevant and extendable to elsewhere, and the results can serve as reference for disaster prevention and early warning for the local government.
29 Sep 2020
An efficient modelling approach for probabilistic assessments of present-day and future fluvial flooding
Hieu Ngo, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Chris Zevenbergen, Ebru Kirezci, Dikman Maheng, Mohanasundar Radhakrishnan, and Assela Pathirana
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-242, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
Short summary
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Estimation of flood hazard in cities is a time-consuming and computationally expensive exercise. Strategic use of simplified hydraulic models and selective use of detailed hydraulic models for specific flood events can minimize the efforts. Flood hazard was calculated for climate change and land subsidence scenarios in Can Tho, Mekong Delta. Reduction in groundwater extraction – arresting land subsidence – along with the rehabilitation of urban drains can mitigate floods even under climate change.
25 Sep 2020
Using rapid damage observations from social media for Bayesian updating of hurricane vulnerability functions: A case study of Hurricane Dorian
Jens A. de Bruijn, James E. Daniell, Antonios Pomonis, Rashmin Gunasekera, Joshua Macabuag, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Siem Jan Koopman, Nadia Bloemendaal, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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Following hurricanes and other natural hazards, it is important to quickly estimate the damage caused by the hazard such that recovery aid can be granted from organizations such as the European Union and the World Bank. To do so, it is important to estimate the vulnerability of buildings to the hazards. In this research, we use post-disaster observations from social media to improve these vulnerability assessments and show its application in the Bahamas following Hurricane Dorian.
23 Sep 2020
Analytical Study of North Indian Oceanic Cyclonic Disturbances with Special Reference to Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Fani: Meteorological Variability, India's Preparedness with Terrible Aftermath
Soumen Chatterjee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-287, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
01 Sep 2020
Landslides distribution at tributaries with different evolution stages in Jiangjia Gully, southwestern China
Xia Fei Tian, Yong Li, and Quan Yan Tian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-131, 2020
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
Short summary
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81 tributaries and 908 landslides are taken, this paper firstly reveals the spatial distribution of landslides. The relationship between hypsometric curve integral and landslides shows that the landslides number increases exponentially with hypsometric curve integral and the landslides area is concentrated in hypsometric curve integral between 0.5 and 0.6, it means that sufficient material for debris flows can be provided, which explains the reason that JJG has the debris flow of high frequency.
27 Aug 2020
Landslide susceptibility assessment based on different machine-learning methods in Zhaoping County of eastern Guangxi
Chunfang Kong, Kai Xu, Junzuo Wang, Chonglong Wu, and Gang Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-251, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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This study compares four machine learning models in predicting and evaluating landslides susceptibility in Zhaoping County, Guangxi Province, China. The result shows that the PSO-RF and PSO-SVM models have strong robustness and stable performance, and those two models are promising methods that could be transferred to other regions for landslide susceptibility evaluation.
23 Jul 2020
A mathematical formulation for estimating maximum run-up height of 2018 Palu tsunami
Ikha Magdalena, Antonio Hugo Respati Dewabrata, Alvedian Mauditra Aulia Matin, Adeline Clarissa, and Muhammad Alif Aqsha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-223, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Our research presents a method that allows one to calculate an estimate for the maximum upward surge of a wave from the 2018 Palu tsunami as it touches the beach. The method involves using ideal geometric shapes to approach the shape of the real bay, yielding one estimate that equals the recorded tsunami wave height of 4.89 m. The direct formulae derived using three idealized bay shapes can be used to gain instant wave run-up estimates for emergency disaster response purposes.
10 Jul 2020
Subsoil seismic characterization through Vs30 for future structural assessment of buildings (Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico)
Leonardo Palemón-Arcos, Carmen M. Gómez-Arredondo, Daniel A. Damas-López, Guillermo Chávez-Hernández, Yuriko Gutiérrez-Can, Marco A. Hernández-Hernández, Edén Bojórquez, and Francisco Barrera-Lao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-194, 2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: final response, 7 comments)
Short summary
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Planet Earth has tectonic plates, which are pieces of Earth's rocky outer shell known as the crust, which are responsible for movements of the subsoil. Due to the discontinuity in the Earth's surface, energy is transferred and will be transferred in current and future projects. For this reason, in this study under the seismic approach an assessment of Ciudad del Carmen Campeche subsoil is presented, regionalizing the subsoil into three types according to shear wave velocities obtained.
08 Jul 2020
Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility using Weight of Evidence and Frequency Ratio Model in Shahpur Valley, Eastern Hindu Kush
Ghani Rahman, Atta Ur Rahman, Alam Sher Bacha, Shakeel Mahmood, Muhammad Farhan Ul Moazzam, and Byung Gul Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-167, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
07 Jul 2020
Wave climate and storm activity in the Kara sea
Stanislav Myslenkov, Vladimir Platonov, Alexander Kislov, Ksenia Silvestrova, and Igor Medvedev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-198, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-198, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
Short summary
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The paper presents the analysis of wave climate and storm activity in the Kara Sea based on the results of numerical modeling. A wave model is used to reconstruct wind wave fields for the period from 1979 to 2017. The maximum significant wave height for the whole period amounts to 9.9 m. A significant linear trend shows an increase in the storm wave frequency for the period from 1979 to 2017.
06 Jul 2020
Resilience issues and challenges into built environments: a review
Charlotte Heinzlef, Bruno Barocca, Mattia Leone, Thomas Glade, and Damien Serre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-217, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
15 Jun 2020
Deformation characteristics and exploratory data analysis of rainfall-induced rotational landslide: A case study of the Zhutoushan landslide in Nanjing, China
Weiguo Li, Yali Liu, Libing Yang, and Yanhong Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-175, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 12 comments)
02 Jun 2020
Model development for simulating mudslide and the case study of the failure of the gypsum tailings dam in East Texas in 1966
Tso-Ren Wu, Thi-Hong-Nhi Vuong, Chun-Yu Wang, Chia-Ren Chu, and Chun-Wei Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-126, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Many studies concentrate on mudflow; however, the stratification between the solid and liquid phase inside the mud material has been not considered. This study provides a modified Bi-viscosity model (MBM) to describe the mudslide flow with the stratification effect. The MBM can simulate the initiation of the mudslide, then the development of the slip surface, the flooding process, the velocity ceasing process, and the stoppage of mudflow.
25 May 2020
Research article: Household resilience to major slow kinetics floods: a prospective survey of the capacity to evacuate in high rise buildings in Paris
Nathalie Rabemalanto, Nathalie Pottier, Abla Mimi Edjossan-Sossou, and Marc Vuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-150, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This article presents the results of a household's survey living in Paris in one of the largest concentrations of high-rise buildings in the city, located in a slow kinetic flood zone along the Seine. As part of a research project, we assessed household's propensity to self-evacuate. Results reveals that household's capacities are partially depend on their ability to find alternative accommodation. They also have a misperception of the authorities' capacity for action.
25 May 2020
Evaluation of global seismicity along Northern and Southern hemispheres
Olaide Sakiru Hammed, Theophilus Aanuoluwa Adagunodo, Musa Oluwafemi Awoyemi, Joel Olayide Amosun, Tokunbo Sanmi Fagbemigun, and Tobi Ebenezer Komolafe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-128, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 20 comments)
19 May 2020
Construct and evaluate the classification models of six types of geological hazards in Bijie city, Guizhou province, China
JieQing Shi, Jin Zhang, and ChaoYong Shen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-124, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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We attempted to establish diverse classifiers for all geological hazards in the area with high incidence of geological hazards, analyzed and compared the performance of all the classifiers. What’s more, we further discussed the relationship between the disparate conditioning factors and various geological disasters in the study area. Among them, the conditioning factors used in the establishment of the model are selected from the original conditioning factors library by scientific methods.
14 May 2020
Dynamicity of multi-channel rip currents induced by rhythmic sandbars
Yao Zhang, Xiao Hong, GuoDong Xu, Xunan Liu, Xinping Chen, Yuxi Sun, Bin Wang, and Chi Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-97, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
Short summary
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Rip currents and surf zone drowning records are reported at many recreational beaches in China, which show seasonal and spatial variations. Case studies and numerical simulations were conducted to explore the dynamicity of multi-channel rip currents generated by rhythmic sandbars. The scientific findings provides fundamental advance in the understanding how the rip current responds to morphodynamic and hydrodynamic changes, and could be applied to better predict the rip current hazard.
08 May 2020
Effect of the Slope Angle and Its Classification on Landslide
Seda Çellek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-87, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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In this study, the slope parameter used in the preparation of landslide susceptibility maps has been studied in detail. With the extensive literature research, it was determined how the researchers used the parameter and the its class ranges. Class ranges in selected areas of Turkey was determined to compare with the literature. Thus a highly preferred parameter has been studied in detail.
27 Apr 2020
Exploring the potential relationship between the occurrence of landslides and debris flows: A new approach
Zhu Liang, Changming Wang, and Kaleem Ullah Jan Khan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-127, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 9 comments)
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This article explored the potential relationship between two geological hazards (landslides and debris flows) in a new way.The superposition and combination of different forms of the susceptibility zoning map of the two disasters can clearly and concisely reflect the relationship between the two, which provided a basis for the further study of the disaster chain and a more valuable reference for the local government personnel.
22 Apr 2020
Does the AO index have predictive power regarding extreme cold temperatures in Europe?
Tamás Bódai and Torben Schmith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-117, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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A lot of people work outdoors year-round and their work safety is of basic concern. For example, in shipping route planning, it is very important to be able to know well in advance how long time crew can stay on deck to carry out their task, which depends on the temperature. We examine one element of a forecast system with respect to the choice of the quantity that it relies on. The forecast of cold extremes can be much more precise when relying on a local quantity rather than a nonlocal one.
20 Apr 2020
Erosion risk assessment and identification of susceptibility lands using the ICONA model and RS and GIS techniques
Hossein Esmaeili Gholzom, Hassan Ahmadi, Abolfazl Moeini, and Baharak Motamed Vaziri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-85, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
17 Apr 2020
Multi-temporal landslide activity investigation by spaceborne SAR interferometry: Polish Carpathians case study
Kamila Pawluszek-Filipiak, Mahdi Motagh, and Andrzej Borkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-112, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
26 Mar 2020
Role of friction terms in two-dimensional modelling of dense snow avalanches
Marcos Sanz-Ramos, Ernest Bladé, Pere Oller, Carlos A. Andrade, and Glòria Furdada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-423, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Dense snow avalanche propagation and deposition can be modelled using similar equations than for water motion changing the friction terms. Due to that, the avalanche tends to have a fluid-like behaviour. Thus, these equations must be properly balanced in order to avoid this behaviour, also including nonhydrostatic pressure and specific numerical techniques to stop the avalanche without any nonphysically based assumption. These improvements could help in a better snow avalanche modelling.
19 Mar 2020
Lessons learnt from analysing the causes of casualties in the Sichuan Changning Ms 6.0 earthquake
Wei Wang, Hong Chen, Xiaolin Jiang, Lisiwen Ma, and Minhao Qu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-64, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This paper summarizes the Ms 6.0 earthquake disaster that occurred in Changning, Sichuan Province, China, on 17 June 2019. Additionally, a description of the disaster emergency response is provided. As determined by on-site investigation and analysis, the direct causes of earthquake casualties are summarized. Responding to the causes of these four casualty types, we summarize 4 lessons.
16 Mar 2020
The assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides
susceptibility with considering coseismic ground
deformation
Yu Zhao, Zeng Huang, Zhenlei Wei, Jun Zheng, and Kazuo Konagai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-63, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
16 Mar 2020
Beyond the stage-damage function: Estimating the economic
damage on residential buildings from storm surges
Lea Skraep Svenningsen, Lisa Bay, Mads Lykke Doemgaard, Kirsten Halsnaes, Per Skougaard Kaspersen, and Morten Dahl Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-30, 2020
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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This study provides rigorous and detailed econometric estimates of damage costs for residential buildings resulting from a storm surge in Denmark, December 2013. Our results indicate that the isolated effect of inundation depth on damage costs is highly sensitive to the inclusion of other explanatory variables. Our findings highlight the importance of controlling for spatial effects, such as the level of emergency services and socio-economic conditions.
16 Mar 2020
Spatial and vertical structure of precipitating clouds and the role of background dynamics during extreme precipitation event as observed by C-band Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar at Thumba (8.50° N, 77.00° E)
Kandula V. Subrahmanyam and K. Kishore Kumar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-2, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-2, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This paper investigated the spatial and vertical structures of precipitating clouds, which are strongly linked with the background dynamics during extreme precipitation event. The weakening of TEJ at upper troposphere resulted in decrease of vertical shear, which favours the vertical growth of convective clouds leading to the extreme precipitation. The enhanced strength of LLJ is also contributed to the precipitation extreme event.
13 Mar 2020
Comparison of machine learning classification algorithms for land cover change in a coastal area affected by the 2010 Earthquake and Tsunami in Chile
Matias I. Volke and Rodrigo Abarca-Del-Rio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-41, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-41, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 15 comments)
Short summary
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The damage caused by earthquakes and tsunamis is usually of such importance that it is essential to have tools that allow rapid and accurate monitoring of the effects of such events. The classification of satellite images is shown as a important tool for such objectives. Therefore, knowing which classification methods have the best potential for greater precision will improve natural disaster management. The results shows that machine learning algorithms are superior in terms of accuracy.
28 Feb 2020
Methodological Considerations in Cover-Collapse Sinkhole Analyses: A Case Study of Southeastern China’s Guangzhou City
Long Jia, Yan Meng, Lujuan Li, and Renchao Yin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-53, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
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The detailed inventory of 49 cover-collapse sinkholes in the study area were analyzed using various surface investigation methods, such as field surveys, aerial photography, and photogrammetry. The Quaternary deposits and indicators of the active underground karst features were geotechnically characterized using drilling and geophysical techniques. Groundwater dynamic monitoring data confirmed that the sinkholes in the study area were closely related to changes in groundwater levels.
21 Feb 2020
Rainfall and weather conditions inducing intense landslide activity in northern Spain (Deba, Guipúzcoa)
Victoria Rivas, Juan Remondo, Jaime Bonachea, and Javier Sánchez-Espeso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-416, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-416, 2020
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This work is focused on the analysis of relationships between landslides and precipitations covering the last 60 years. Landslide inventory has been elaborated and a rainfall database has been obtained from 15 rain gauges. In this period, 6 major landsliding events have been identified and a characterization of them has been carried out. An I-D threshold has been calculated and compared. The characterization of weather patterns, and the definition of their seasonality, is a relevant contribution
28 Jan 2020
Identification of early warning criteria for rough sea ship navigation using high-resolution numerical wave simulation and shipboard measurements
Chen Chen, Kenji Sasa, and Takaaki Mizojiri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-399, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-399, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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To provide practical suggestions on avoiding high-risk ocean regions, an identification of early warning criteria has been made for an ocean-going cargo ship. High resolution numerical wave hindcasts as well as model validations against on-board observations have been done for four ballast and loaded rough sea navigation cases occurred in important shipping regions in the Southern Hemisphere. Responses of ship motion and navigation to various wave states are also discussed at different ranges.
13 Jan 2020
Evaluating forest fire probability under the influence of human activity based on remote sensing and GIS
Wei Yang and Xiaoli Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-338, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-338, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
09 Jan 2020
Assessment of relative importance of debris flow disaster risk affecting factors based on meta-analysis – cases study of northwest and southwest China
Yuzheng Wang, Lei Nie, Min Zhang, Hong Wang, Yan Xu, and Tianyu Zuo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-339, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
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There are many factors affect the risk of debris flow and there is no more reliable basis to choose from experience when evaluating the risk of debris flow. This paper adopted the meta-analysis combined with debris flow risk assessment to analyze the relative importance of risk factors in northwest and southwest China. The analysis results reveal the differences of debris flow influencing factors between these two areas and prove meta-analysis can be applied to the screening of risk factors.
08 Jan 2020
Temporary confined water responsible for triggering the landslide of a piedmont gentle slope in Ningzhen Area, China
Shulan Guo, Yang Liu, Changhong Yan, Liangchen Yu, Baotian Liu, and Zezheng Gao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-404, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
Short summary
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1. The sliding mechanism of piedmont gentle slope in Ningzhen Area, China is investigated. 2. The temporary confined water in the middle layer of the slope was the most important factor in inducing the landslide. 3. The formation process and influencing factors of the temporary confined water was analyzed through numerical simulation. 4. The effective control measures were proposed for the treatment of similar piedmont gentle slope landslides in the Ningzhen area of China.
06 Jan 2020
Residential building stock modelling for mainland China
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, Hing-Ho Tsang, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-385, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-385, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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A grid-level residential building stock model (in terms of floor area and replacement value) targeted for seismic risk analysis for mainland China is developed by using census and population density data. Comparison with previous studies and yearbook records indicates the reliability of our model. The model is flexible for updates when more detailed census or statistics data are available, and it can be conveniently combined with hazard data and vulnerability information for risk assessment.
29 Nov 2019
An integrated hydrological and hydraulic modelling approach for the flood risk assessment over Po river basin
Rita Nogherotto, Adriano Fantini, Francesca Raffaele, Fabio Di Sante, Francesco Dottori, Erika Coppola, and Filippo Giorgi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-356, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-356, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
27 Nov 2019
Choice of a wildfire risk system for eucalyptus plantation: a case study for FWI, FMA⁺ and horus systems in Brazil
Fernando Coelho Eugenio, Alexandre Rosa dos Santos, Beatriz Duguy Pedra, José Eduardo Macedo Pezzopane, Lima Deleon Martins, Cássio Carlette Thiengo, and Nathália Suemi Saito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-350, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The present study aims at selecting the wildfire risk models FWI, FMA⁺ and RIF Database for the Eucalyptus plantations. The study area extends from the north central coast of the state of Espírito Santo and the south coast of Bahia, Brazil.
26 Nov 2019
Data efficient Random Forest model for avalanche forecasting
Manesh Chawla and Amreek Singh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-379, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
25 Nov 2019
Measuring the seismic risk along the Nazca-Southamerican subduction front: Shannon entropy and mutability
Eugenio E. Vogel, Felipe G. Brevis, Denisse Pastén, Víctor Muñoz, Rodrigo A. Miranda, and Abraham C.-L. Chian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-309, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquakes are natural hazardous phenomena that can bring death, destruction,
economical crisis, migrations and other social implications. This paper aims to understand one of the main causes for seismic activity: subduction of one Earth plate underneath another one in a stochastic way. The time series associated to this activity provides information which we have analyzed it by new techniques. This allows us to estimate where important earthquakes can occur although we cannot yet say when.
25 Nov 2019
Investigation of the weather conditions during the collapse of the Morandi Bridge in Genoa on 14 August 2018
Massimiliano Burlando, Djordje Romanic, Giorgio Boni, Martina Lagasio, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-371, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-371, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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This paper investigates the weather conditions during the collapse of the Morandi bridge, which caused 43 fatalities. Despite a thunderstorm developed over the city at the time of collapse, weather is officially ruled out as a contributing factor for it. A meteorological analysis is relevant to support this hypothesis or possibly reconsider it. The analysis, mainly based on measurements complemented with numerical simulations, reveals that quite strong winds occurred at the time of collapse.
13 Nov 2019
Rockfall modelling in forested areas: the role of digital terrain model spatial resolution
Barbara Žabota, Matjaž Mikoš, and Milan Kobal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-372, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-372, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This article is studying how the spatial resolution of digital terrain model is influencing the modelling of rockfall propagation and runout areas when the protection effect of forest is included in the model. The research was applied on six spatial resolutions of lidar data as an input into RockyFor3D model. The effect of forest is the most evident and accurately modelled at the highest spatial resolutions, and the results confirm forest should be a part of rockfall hazard assessment.
15 Oct 2019
Evidence of preliminary prognosis of appearance of catastrophic earthquake and strong tsunami in the region of Tarapacá, Chile
Raissa K. Mazova, Jorge F. Van Den Bosch, Natalia A. Baranova, and Gustavo A. Oses
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-278, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The 2014 tsunami off the coast of northern Chile are analyzed, knowing that there have been very destructive pan-oceanic tsunamis in the past, It was also forecast in 1999, this tsunami has been simulated taking into account two movements of the seabed, one as a single block and the second as several blocks, as a result it can be seen that the second way of simulating is closer to the measures recorded by tide gauges, also the spectral analysis allowed knowing the characteristics of the flood.
09 Oct 2019
Assessing potential storm tide inundation hazard under climate
change: a case study of Southeast China coast
Bingchuan Nie, Qingyong Wuxi, Jiachun Li, and Feng Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-284, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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For storm surge, the most hazardous coastal event, the challenge of climate change effect should be dealt with urgently. A methodology integrating trend analysis, numerical analysis and GIS-based analysis is proposed for assessing the storm tide inundation under Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Sea Level Rise. The inundation details of the hardest hit regions are provided quantitatively. Comparison shows that TCI and SLR can deteriorate the risks remarkably, e.g. double the inundation area.
09 Oct 2019
Synoptic and Mesoscale atmospheric features associated with an
extreme Snowstorm over the Central Andes in August 2013
Marcelo Zamuriano, Paul Froidevaux, Isabel Moreno, Mathias Vuille, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-286, 2019
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
08 Oct 2019
Understanding Spatial Variations in Earthquake Vulnerabilities of Residential Neighborhoods of Mymensingh City, Bangladesh: An AHP-GIS Integrated Index-based Approach
Md. Shaharier Alam and Shamim Mahabubul Haque
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-237, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-237, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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The city of Mymensingh is highly earthquake vulnerable due to its geological setting, proximity to three faults. It is crucial to assess the seismic vulnerability for taking the judicious risk reduction measures for the city. This paper assesses the spatial variation of seismic vulnerability of residential neighbourhoods of Mymensingh city, employing an index-based low cost approach which could provide a reasonably accurate result with minimum resource and expertise requirements.
07 Oct 2019
Effects of coupled hydro-mechanical model considering two-phase
fluid flow on potential for shallow landslides: a case study in
Halmidang Mountain, Yongin, South Korea
Sinhang Kang and Byungmin Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-271, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-271, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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We assessed slope stability during rainfall to identify the potential unstable slopes at a regional scale. To exactly analyze fluid flow in voids of soils and its effect on slope stability, we considered the infiltrations of both water and air, interacting with ground deformations. Our results suggest that air flow and considering the interaction of fluid flow and ground deformations affects the infiltration rates of fluids, thus influencing the slope stability (particularly during heavy rain).
30 Sep 2019
Complex Networks Reveal Teleconnections between the Global SST and Rainfall in Southwest China
Panjie Qiao, Wenqi Liu, Yongwen Zhang, and Zhiqiang Gong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-290, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
30 Sep 2019
Landfalls of Tropical Cyclones with Rapid Intensification in the Western North Pacific
Jie Yang and Meixiang Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-279, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-279, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The unexpected rapid intensification (RI) of Typhoon Hato (2017) just prior to landfall flooded Macau dramatically since 1925, which is classified as one of the most dangerous type of tropical cyclones (TCs). By data-mining from IBTrACS best track data, the frequency and energy of landfalling RI TCs were found increasing in the western North Pacific during 1986–2017, and mainly contribute to the strengthening trend of strong TCs, while the TCs didn't undergo RI show an universal regional decay.
18 Sep 2019
Shape and dimension estimations of landslide rupture zones via correlations of characteristic parameters
Gisela Domej, Céline Bourdeau, Luca Lenti, and Salvatore Martino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-240, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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For assessing landslides, it is of particular interest to delineate their volume. For example, numerical models, as well as GIS procedures, rely on exact delineations to characterize hazard potentials. This work presents parameters describing the dimensions and shapes of landslides. Via stable relations among each other and their relations to initial rupture volumes of landslides, it becomes possible to deduce parameters from each other and to infer volume estimates from given parameters.
10 Sep 2019
A GIS-based three-dimensional landslide generated waves height calculation
method
Guo Yu, Mowen Xie, Lei Bu, and Asim Farooq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-230, 2019
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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The waves generated by three-dimensional landslide will cause a very large safety accident. This paper proposes a GIS-Based calculation method of waves height generated by three-dimensional landslide for evaluating the hazard of the landslide. Compared with 2D analysis methods, the 3D method proposed in this paper better represents the actual spatial state of landslides. An expansion module is developed to calculate the waves height, and the feasibility of the module is verified by a case study.
23 Aug 2019
Correlation between the fractal of aftershock spatial distribution and active fault on Sumatra
Bahary Setyawan and Benyamin Sapiie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-215, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This study more discusses the fractal of aftershock characteristics in spatial distribution and fault dimension. The recent study didn't consider that the earthquake mechanism could affect the aftershock distribution. To conclude, we found scale invariance in the relationship between fault and aftershock spatial distribution. It also was controlled by the mechanism of earthquakes, either it was a regular or doublet earthquake.
07 Aug 2019
Italian Tsunami Effects Database (ITED): the first database of tsunami effects observed along
the Italian coasts
Alessandra Maramai, Laura Graziani, and Beatriz Brizuela
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-241, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 11 comments)
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The Italian Tsunami Effects Database (ITED), is an ensemble of records reporting tsunami effects observed at several Observation Points (OP) along the Italian coasts from historical times. ITED contains 300 observations of tsunami effects at 225 OP referred to 186 Italian main localities, related to 72 Italian tsunamis. The database provides also the tsunami-history for each locality. ITED can be accessed through a web GIS application built on purpose.
25 Jul 2019
Study on Flood Control Safety Evaluation Based on Composite Risk Model
Yingying Lan, Faliang Gui, Dongnan Luo, Youqin Zou, and Hua Bai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-236, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The Zhelin Reservoir construction has a long history and the designing data was insufficient. Its safety is particularly important because of large scale. Whether a risk of flood control safety exists in the reservoir should be evaluated. This study presents an integrated probabilistic framework that combines Monte Carlo Simulation and a flood control risk model. This model involves many uncertain factors and sensitivity are analyzed. Technical guidance are provided for reservoir flood control.
15 Jul 2019
High-frequency glacial lake mapping using time series of Sentinel-1A/1B SAR imagery: An assessment for southeastern Tibetan
Plateau
Meimei Zhang, Fang Chen, Bangsen Tian, Dong Liang, and Aqiang Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-219, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-219, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
09 Jul 2019
Case Study: Risk Analysis by Overtopping During an Upstream Landslide in Peñitas Dam, Mexico
Humberto J. F. Marengo and Alvaro A. Aldama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-191, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
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In this paper is made a risk analysis by overtopping of existing Peñitas dam that could be caused by a flood produced by the failure of an upstream natural dam product of a landslide: is showed a real case and its solution; innovative mathematical approach analysis is presented. Risk model analysis developed is applicable to similar cases could happen in any site of the world. Uncertainty analysis of variables that have their own hypotheses, limitations, advantages and disadvantages is made.
08 Jul 2019
Tectonic Origin Tsunami Scenario Database for the Marmara Region
Ceren Ozer Sozdinler, Ocal Necmioglu, H. Basak Bayraktar, and Nurcan M. Ozel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-186, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-186, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
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We are presenting the first tsunami scenario database in the sea of Marmara, Turkey with comprehensive compilation of historical and empirical seismic data and numerical modeilng using NAMIDANCE in the frame of FP-7 MARSite project. Our main aim is to correlate with the operations of Tsunami Service Provider in KOERI. The results show that hazardous historical tsunamis in Marmara Sea cannot be explained by only earthquakes and submarine landslides should be considered as the primary component.
08 Jul 2019
Spatiotemporal analysis of flash flooding events in mountainous area
of China during 1950–2015
Nan Wang, Weiming Cheng, Min Zhao, Qiangyi Liu, Jing Wang, and Dongcheng Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-150, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Flash flooding is one of the most destructive natural disasters that occur in mountainous areas. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of flash flooding across China is important for enabling better disaster estimation and prevention on the national scale. To bridge the gap in the research of the spatiotemporal characteristics of flash flooding events (FFEs), this paper detected the temporal variation, temporal periodic and temporal clustering of FFEs in China.
04 Jul 2019
Vulnerability analysis in Complex Networks under a Flood Risk
Reduction point of view
Leonardo B. L. Santos, Aurelienne A. S. Jorge, Luciana R. Londe, Regina T. Reani, Roberta B. Bacelar, and Igor M. Sokolov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-199, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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The measurement and mapping of transportation network vulnerability constitute subjects of global interest. During a flood, some elements of a transportation network can be reached, causing damages directly (to people) and indirect damages (to services) with great economic impacts. The Complex Networks approach may offer a valuable perspective considering the topological vulnerability. Our results can represent an important tool for stakeholders from the transportation sector.
03 Jun 2019
Reconstruction of past marine submersion events (storms and
tsunamis) on the North Atlantic coast of Morocco
Otmane Khalfaoui, Laurent Dezileau, Jean-Philippe Degeai, and Maria Snoussi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-130, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The North Atlantic coast of Morocco has been historically affected by marine submersion events resulting from storms or tsunamis and causing economic losses and human fatalities. To establish adaptation and mitigation strategies, it is essential to study these events in terms of spatial and temporal variability. Using a geological archive (sediment core) retrieved from this coastal area of Morocco, we present a reconstruction of past marine submersion events over the last 4000 years.
28 May 2019
Initial Assessment of Landslide Prone Area using Soil Properties
Yanto, Arwan Apriyono, Purwanto Bekti Santoso, and Sumiyanto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-131, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Landslide occurs when the safety factor (SF), defined as ratio of shear strength and acting force less than 1. Those parameters are influenced by soil properties. We found that many civil laboratories have this information. We are curious if we can identify landslide prone area using soil properties. This study is initial phase of our entire study to develop translational landslide model which will be useful to map landslide prone area based on on its safety factor.
27 May 2019
Sandbag Replacement Systems – Stability, Functionality and
Handling
Lena Lankenau, Christopher Massolle, Bäbel Koppe, and Veronique Krull
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-164, 2019
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Owing to their material, personnel and time-saving characteristics, sandbag replacement systems (SBRS) can make an essential contribution to flood protection. In order to foster confidence in the systems, systematic test set-ups were carried out with the focus on functionality, stability and handling of SBRS. Experience from the tests shows that SBRS have the potential to make flood protection more efficient than the use of sandbags alone.
20 May 2019
Failure modes of loose landslide deposits in 2008
Wenchuan earthquake area in China
Jianjun Gan and Yi Xia Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-25, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
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This paper summarizes and classifies the accumulated landslide of Wenchuan earthquake disaster, and puts forward a classification method that takes into account the topography, movement speed, and material, which is helpful to the prevention and control of similar geological disasters in strong earthquake areas.
06 May 2019
Incorporating multi-source remote sensing in the detection of
earthquake-damaged buildings based on logistic regression
modelling
Qiang Li, Jingfa Zhang, and Hongbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-20, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
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The work represents one of the first attempt to extract damaged buildings through the fusion of three types of data with different features at the scale of object. It addresses multivariate regression methodologies, and discusses the potentials of different features for application in this field of damage detection.
30 Apr 2019
Influencing factors and their interactions of water erosion based on yearly and monthly scale analysis: A case study in the Yellow River basin of China
Ting Hua, Wenwu Zhao, Yanxu Liu, and Yue Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-122, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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We used the RUSLE model and geographical detector method to evaluate and identify the dominant factors and variability in the Yellow River basin. We found that in the period of low rainfall and vegetation coverage, the interaction of rainfall and slope can enhance their impact on the distribution of soil erosion, while the combination of vegetation and slope was the dominant interacting factor in other periods, and the dominant driving factors of soil erosion variability were rainfall.
23 Apr 2019
Landslides distribution at tributaries with different evolution stages in Jiangjia Gully, southwestern China
Xia Fei Tian, Yong Li, Quan Yan Tian, and Feng Huan Su
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-90, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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The relationship between geomorphic evolution and landslides distribution can reveal the landslides distribution characteristics of tributaries, 81 tributaries and 908 landslides are taken, it is found that the LD increases exponentially with EI and the LAp is concentrated in EI between 0.5 and 0.6, it means that sufficient material for debris flows can be provided, which explains the reason that JJG has the debris flow of high frequency.
25 Mar 2019
Improvement of typhoon wind hazard model and its sensitivity analysis
Yunxia Guo, Yijun Hou, and Peng Qi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-390, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-390, 2019
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China's southeast coast. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the typhoon hazard using typhoon wind hazard modeling and simulation methods. This paper describes a technique for analyzing the typhoon wind hazard based on the empirical track model. Existing simplified and non-simplified typhoon empirical track models are improved. Besides we investigate the influence of different factors on the predicted wind speed
22 Mar 2019
An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides
Mingdong Zang, Shengwen Qi, Zhuping Sheng, Blanca S. Zamora, and Yu Zou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-42, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-42, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Coseismic landslides often cause great loss of lives and properties in the seismic zone. Accurately mapping the hazards is a very important and challenge work. This paper considers the roughness and size effect of the potential sliding surface-unloading joint, incorporates the seismic hazard analysis of the study area, and then presents an improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides. The approach is well verified by Mw 6.1 Ludian earthquake in 2014.
18 Mar 2019
Before the fire: Assessing post-wildfire flooding and debris-flow
hazards for pre-disaster mitigation
Ann M. Youberg, Joseph B. Loverich, Michael J. Kellogg, and Jonathan E. Fuller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-74, 2019
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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We conducted a pre-fire assessment of post-wildfire hazards to identify, at the countywide scale, areas at risk of post-wildfire flooding and debris flows, to quantify the severity and extent of those risks within two study areas, and to identify mitigation opportunities to reduce risks. Flood and debris-flow hazards were identified countywide and present significant risks within the study areas. Several identified mitigation measures have been implemented, or are planned, to reduce risks.
12 Mar 2019
Creating a national scale debris flow susceptibility model for Great Britain: a GIS-based heuristic approach
Emma J. Bee, Claire Dashwood, Catherine Pennington, Roxana L. Ciurean, and Katy Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-54, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-54, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Debris flows in Great Britain have caused damage to infrastructure, buildings, and disruption to businesses and communities. This paper outlines a methodology incorporating expert judgement and environmental factors to derive a debris flow susceptibility map for Great Britain. This spatial dataset provides a useful tool for policy-makers, developers and engineers, and can support development action plans and risk reduction strategies at the regional or national scale.
11 Mar 2019
A fast monitor and real time early warning system for landslides in the Baige landslide damming event, Tibet, China
Yongbo Wu, Ruiqing Niu, and Zhen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-48, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-48, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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In this paper, a fast monitoring and real time precursor predication method is proposed to build the early warning systems for specific landslide. The fast monitoring network in this system uses ad-hoc technology to build rapid site monitoring network consist of Beidou terminals. The real time precursor predication method based on the KF-FFT-SVM model is conducted to fulfil precursor early warning of in short time. This system improves the robust and early warning efficient of traditionaly LEWs.
12 Feb 2019
Landslides Data Assimilation Using TRIGRS Based on Particle Filtering
Changhu Xue, Guigen Nie, Jie Dong, Shuguang Wu, Jing Wang, Xiuzhen Li, and Xiaogang Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-16, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
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This paper provides an approach to apply data assimilation method to stability analysis and parameter update and feedback in a landslide. The experiment is implemented by particle filter algorithm. The result FS sequence of TRIGRS output decreases continuously with time and the assimilation can effectively correct the FS of the model output. The RMSD of FS indicates the assimilation results can correct the estimation of TRIGRS output close to actual observations.
11 Feb 2019
Annual Characterization of Regional Hydrological Drought using
Auxiliary Information under Global Warming Scenario
Zulfiqar Ali, Ijaz Hussain, and Muhammad Faisal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-373, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Climate change and global warming scenario increase the odds of worsening drought. Therefore, precise characterization and regional monitoring of drought are the major challenge. In this paper, we provide a new way to formulate and improve temporal data of precipitation for the Standardized Drought Index (SDI) type tools. Results show that improved estimates are good candidates for modelling and monitoring hydrological drought with more precision.
05 Feb 2019
Characteristics of a Hailstorm over the Andean La Paz Valley
Marcelo Zamuriano, Andrey Martynov, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-27, 2019
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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This work investigates the formation of a hailstorm over the Tropical Bolivian Andes. Using the WRF atmospheric model, we are able to numerically reconstruct it and we assess the main factors (mountains, lake and surface heating) in the storm formation. We propose physical mechanisms that have the potential to improve the forecasting of similar events; which are known to have a big impact over the Bolivian Altiplano, especially the region near Titicaca lake.
11 Jan 2019
Formation of a multi-translational reactivated ancient landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China
Shilin Luo, Xiaoguang Jin, Da Huang, and Tantan Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-399, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-399, 2019
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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The field survey and laboratory tests were conducted and analyzed in detail. A conceptual model was proposed to elaborate the formation process and mechanism of this instability. The structural characteristic of mobilized material, rupture surface, topography saltation, and seasonal variation of groundwater exposure could be regarded as valid proofs in identifying ancient landslides. Long-term monitoring and emergency civil protection actions are necessary.
03 Jan 2019
Culture matters: Factors influencing natural hazard risk
preparedness – a survey of Swiss households
Elisabeth Maidl, David N. Bresch, and Matthias Buchecker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-393, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-393, 2019
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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Natural hazard risk management today aims to involve all actors possibly affected by damage. Citizens are regarded as responsible actors in risk mitigation. Practitioners therefore face the challenge of building social capacity towards such a culture of risk. Research on capacity building in Alpine countries, however, so far lacks empirical evidence on individual preparedness in the common population. This study for the first time provides insights for research and practice.
20 Dec 2018
Man-made earthquakes prevention through monitoring and
discharging their causative stress-deformed states
Oleg Kuznetsov, Igor Chirkin, Ahmed Radwan, Ahmed Ismail, Yury Lyasch, Samuel LeRoy, Evgeny Rizanov, and Sergey Koligaev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-350, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
19 Dec 2018
The role of antecedent soil moisture conditions on rainfall-triggered
shallow landslides
Maurizio Lazzari, Marco Piccarreta, and Salvatore Manfreda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-371, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-371, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Rainfall data and soil degree saturation in the Basilicata region (southern Italy) are used to explore the effects of antecedent soil moisture conditions on rainfall I/D thresholds triggering of 326 shallow landslides occurred in the last 18 years. We found that previous soil degree saturation conditions play a crucial role on landslide triggering, much more than the same rainfalls. Two distinct soil degree saturation values less of 0,7 and more of 0.7 clearly affects the shallow landslides.
17 Dec 2018
Research on Occurrence and Development of Pasture Drought Events in Alpine Grassland using the Drought Threshold
Tiaofeng Zhang, Lin Li, Hongbin Xiao, and Hongmei Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-305, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-305, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 9 comments)
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Pasture is vital to livestock husbandry development in Qinghai and even in North China. Insufficient soil moisture is the most prominent cause of pasture drought. This study aims at investigating pasture responses to soil drought as well as quantitative expression of soil drought degree and drought threshold. Test plots were selected from the pasture test station. Five testing groups were set according to coverage rate (0–100 %) at the initiation the pasture growth period.
06 Dec 2018
Mapping snow avalanches hazard in poorly monitored areas. The case of Rigopiano avalanche, Apennines of Italy
Daniele Bocchiola, Mattia Galizzi, Giovanni Martino Bombelli, and Andrea Soncini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-358, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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We investigate hazard for the poorly monitored area of Rigopiano (PE), where an avalanche killed 29 persons on January 2017. Using Poly-Aval model (1D/q2D), and a regional approach to calculate snow depth at release h72 we map hazard zones as per AINEVA guidelines, with confidence limits. We demonstrate that regionally based hazard mapping at poorly measured sites as here allows mapping even for large return periods, considerably reducing the uncertainty against canonical single site analysis.
27 Nov 2018
Perception of the flash flood hazard by the population of Mindelo, S.
Vicente (Cape Verde)
Bruno Martins, Adélia Nunes, Luciano Lourenço, and Fátima Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-312, 2018
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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The number of disasters related to natural hazards and their impact has significantly increased during the last decades. Floods hazard affect at least 20 000 lives, mostly because of the resulting homelessness. This study focus on risk perception based on individual characteristics and socioeconomic circumstances, which make people more susceptible to the impact of a hazardous event, in Mindelo, where little (or nothing) is known regarding the public perception of the risk posed by flash-floods.
19 Nov 2018
Bivariate trend assessment of dust storm frequency in relation to climate drivers
Reza Modarres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-302, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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A dust storm is an event happened due to different climate and earth conditions. Recent changes in dust storm frequency in desert regions of Iran is suffering the people and natural and environmental resources. This study proposes a novel method to investigate the change of dust storm frequency which is related to climate change conditions. We see that the wind and temperature have direct effect on change in dust storm frequency and rainfall has inverse relation ship with dust storm frequency.
14 Nov 2018
Detectability of seismic waves from the submarine landslide that caused the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami
Akio Katsumata, Yasuhiro Yoshida, Kenji Nakata, Kenichi Fujita, Masayuki Tanaka, Koji Tamaribuchi, Takahito Nishimiya, and Akio Kobayashi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-317, 2018
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 13 comments)
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On 17 July 1998, a tsunami caused serious damage on the northern coast of Papua New Guinea about 20 min after an earthquake of magnitude 7. The tsunami has been attributed to a submarine landslide that occurred about 13 min after the earthquake. We investigated whether evidence of the landslide could be identified in the seismic records for tsunami warning purpose, and concluded that the 1998 landslide was too small to be evident in the seismic records.
13 Nov 2018
Impact analysis of dynamical downscaling on the treatment of convection in a regional NWP model – COSMO: a case study during the passage of a very severe cyclonic storm OCKHI
S. Roshny, D. Bala Subrahamanyam, T. J. Anurose, and Radhika Ramachandran
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-288, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-288, 2018
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Dynamical downscaling of an NWP model is closely related to the parameterization of convection. This is an unique study on a very severe cyclonic storm OCKHI over the Arabian Sea in which we explore the impact of downscaling of grid resolution in COSMO regional NWP model and investigate the effect of explicit treatment of convection on the performance of model. Switching off the convection parameterization yield good values of CAPE but lead to poor performance in terms of rainfall simulations.
12 Nov 2018
Spatial variability and potential maximum intensity of winter
storms over Europe
Michael A. Walz and Gregor C. Leckebusch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-309, 2018
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
Short summary
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Extra-tropical windstorms represent one of the biggest natural hazards for Europe. In this paper we use a method to categorise the tracks (based on the shape of the track) of these storms into three different groups. The characteristics of the storms in each of the three groups is then analysed with regards to size, duration or intensity. By using extreme-value statistics we can further estimate what would be a maximum intensity storm for each of the three groups.
30 Oct 2018
Estimation of soil erosion considering soil loss tolerance in karst area
Yue Cao, Shijie Wang, Xiaoyong Bai, Huiwen Li, Cheng Zeng, Yichao Tian, Fei Chen, Luhua Wu, and Mingming Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-310, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-310, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Due to the soil holding capacity is very limited in karst area, it is necessary to consider the allowable loss of soil. Here we took thermodynamic dissolution model of carbonate rocks and the lithological characteristics to estimate soil loss tolerance, then corrected and quantitatively evaluated the soil erosion. We identified the spatial pattern of soil loss tolerance in karst area, found RUSLE overestimated soil erosion in karst area and proposed an idea for evaluating soil erosion in karst.
26 Oct 2018
A GIS-based multivariate approach to identify flood damage affecting factors
Barbara Blumenthal, Jan Haas, and Jan-Olov Andersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-286, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-286, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
22 Oct 2018
A Methodology For Optimal Designing Of Monitoring Sensor
Networks For Tsunami Inversion
Joaquín Meza, Patricio A. Catalán, and Hiroaki Tsushima
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-269, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-269, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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A methodology to optimize the design of an offshore tsunami network array is presented, allowing placement of sensors to be used in a Early Tsunami Warning System framework. The method includes multiple tsunami parameters as a measure of the predictive accuracy through a single cost function. The resulting network performance was tested against an historical event, suggesting that having such a network in place could have provided meaningful information for the hazard assessment.
09 Oct 2018
Natural hazard risk of complex systems – the whole is more than the sum of its parts: II. A pilot study in Mexico City
Marcello Arosio, Mario L. V. Martina, and Rui Figueiredo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-278, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important and challenging problem. In today's socio-technological world, the connections and interdependencies between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relations call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessment. This two-part paper proposes a new holistic approach to assess the risk of complex systems based on Graph Theory. Part II presents an application to a pilot study in Mexico City.
04 Oct 2018
Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Drought Hazard under Different RCP Scenarios for China in the 21st century
Tao Pan, Jie Chen, and Yujie Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-242, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Results indicate that 2071–2099 will face the most severe droughts, with the highest frequency and longest duration. In terms of spatial distribution, drought hazards in north China will be greater than in south China, especially the non-monsoon region. Comparing the two scenarios, drought hazards from RCP8.5 are higher than that from RCP4.5, i.e., higher frequency, longer duration of drought and more significant drying trends. These results provide a reference for adaption and reduction.
28 Sep 2018
State of the art of fragility analysis for major building types in
China with implications for intensity-PGA relationships
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-254, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-254, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
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Field surveys after major disastrous earthquakes have shown that poor performance of buildings in earthquake affected areas is the leading cause of human fatalities and economic losses. The evaluation of seismic fragility for existing building stocks has become a crucial issue due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes in the last decades. They are required for the estimation of fatalities and monetary losses due to structural damage in destructive natural disasters like earthquakes.
25 Sep 2018
Influence of shearing rate on the residual strength characteristic of
three landslides soils in loess area
Baoqin Lian, Jianbing Peng, Xingang Wang, and Qiangbing Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-270, 2018
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
05 Sep 2018
Monthly and seasonal rainfall (1963–2017) for a typhoon-influenced
area in a Chinese karst basin
Chongxun Mo, Yuli Ruan, Jiaqi He, Guikai Sun, and Juliang Jin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-194, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
03 Sep 2018
Avalanche Impact Pressures on Structures with Upstream Pile-Up/Accumulation Zones of Compacted Snow
Perry Bartelt, Andrin Caviezel, Sandro Degonda, and Othmar Buser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-154, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 17 comments)
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A longstanding problem in avalanche science is to understand why slow moving avalanches exert large pressures on buildings. To understand this phenomenon we propose that avalanche interaction with a rigid structure must be divided into two separate regimes: a
flowregime and a
pile-upregime. In the flow regime, snow does not accumulate behind the obstacle. We show why the accumulation of avalanche snow behind a structure can lead to immense forces that must be considered in mitigation.
03 Sep 2018
Analysis of Land surface Temperature change based on MODIS data, Case study: Inner Delta of Niger
Abdramane Dembélé, Xiufen Ye, and Amadou Touré
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-208, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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This work evaluates the effects of the terrestrial warming in the Inner Delta of Niger (Mali) by the analysis of the Land Surface Temperature (LST) transition and the Spatial Transformation process (STP). Results show an important increase of the temperature while determining an extension of moderately warm areas at the same time a decrease of the warmest areas until to determine volcanic hazards areas (Faguibine Lake). Thus, this work provides a useful contribution to the terrestrial warming.
15 Aug 2018
A Mathematical Framework for Crisis Spatial Crowdsourcing Services
Hooshang Eivazy and Mohammad Reza Malek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-206, 2018
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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Our mathematical framework aiding rescuing process of a crisis field via spatial crowdsourcing services. Framework is able to simulate different crisis field object behaviors and our crowdsourcing services in space and gives the ability to track objects’ movement in all dimension of space, forming influence-ability constrains and documenting main environment objects and interactions as well as managing crowdsourcing services and simplifying programming process and let to crisis field simulation.
07 Aug 2018
Assessment of avalanche hazard situation in Turkey during years 2010s
Tayfun Kurt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-205, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
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Turkey is known as a country with many summer holiday activities due to the seas that surround three sides of the country and its historic places. However, avalanches constitue risky situations in especially eastearn part of Turkey. The objective of this study is to analyze the current situation in Turkey in terms of avalanche hazards, avalanche mitigation works, and authorities. The present work partly contains some results presented in the doctoral dissertation completed by my on self.
01 Aug 2018
Quantification of uncertainty in rapid estimation of earthquake fatalities based on scenario analysis
Xiaoxue Zhang, Hanping Zhao, Fangping Wang, Zezheng Yan, Sida Cai, and Xiaowen Mei
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-187, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-187, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 13 comments)
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This study proposed a new method to estimate earthquake fatalities and quantify the uncertainty based on the basic earthquake emergency scenarios. The basic earthquake emergency scenarios are constructed by the main factors, which affecting the earthquake fatalities. We verified the accuracy of the model with the earthquake that occurred during recent year, and compared the accuracy with other two models.
24 Jul 2018
Tsunami Hazard assessment and Scenarios Database for the Tsunami Warning System for the coast of Oman
Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, José A. Álvarez-Gómez, Mauricio González, Jara Martínez Sánchez, Laura M. Parro, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Felipe Fernández, Raúl Medina, and Sultan Al-Yahyai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-221, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-221, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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In this work, two of the main strategies to reduce tsunami risk on the coast of Oman are addressed. The tsunami hazard assessment (calculation of the potentially flooded area) and the elaboration of a database of tsunami events that is a fundamental part of the Oman Tsunami Warning System. The study included the characterization of the tsunamigenic sources affecting the study area and the numerical simulation of their generation, propagation and inundation.
23 Jul 2018
Debris Flow Risk Mapping Based on GIS and Extenics
Wenbo Xu, Xueru Zhang, Yangjuan Zou, Chunyu Zhang, and Siyu Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-147, 2018
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Debris flow, a very dangerous natural disaster. There is no effective method to assessment the lager-scale debris flow. We applied the extenics method towards a large-scale debris flow risk assessment for the first time, built the classical matter elements and joint domain matter elements for assessment of the debris flow risks. The results show that model has a high coincidence with the number of historical debris flow，suggesting high accuracy of extenics method in large-scale assessment areas.
17 Jul 2018
Catastrophic debris flow triggered by an extreme rainfall event in the Volcán village, January 2017. Cordillera Oriental of Argentina
María Yanina Esper Angillieri, Laura Perucca, and Nicolás Vargas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-207, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-207, 2018
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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In the Grande River basin, Jujuy Province, torrential rains take place almost every summer causing debris flow/flood and producing widespread damage along aQuebrada de Humahuaca), destroying several streets and houses of a small village called the Volcán. This study aims to increase knowledge of these events in order to provide several methods of analysis for landslide prevention and control. We made a morphometric analysis of the river basin using digital elevation models.
16 Jul 2018
Landslide susceptibility mapping using fuzzy logic and multi-criteria evaluation techniques in the city of Quito, Ecuador
Daniela Salcedo, Oswaldo Padilla Almeida, Byron Morales, and Theofilos Toulkeridis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-86, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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This research demonstrates impressively, what has been possible by counting with a variety of variables and data sets in order to model landslides in a mega-vulnerable city, in this case Quito in Ecuador. Furthermore, we also compared the previously existing map of landslides in the city based on the current municipality with our new map, which allows an improved, high-resolution view of the potential and most vulnerable sites and zones.
16 Jul 2018
Evaluating and analyzing the comprehensive community
disaster reduction capability
Dajun Lian, Jin Zhu, Xinyu Wang, and Guangbin Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-137, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Community comprehensive disaster reduction capability is a community's ability to avoid or reduce natural disasters and other accidents. On the basis of an evaluating index system, using entropy-weighted grey target model and GIS analysis, we take the Suzhou New District as a case study for the empirical measurements and calculations. The results indicate that the area's CCDRC is relatively weak and spatially uneven, but has large potential for improvement. The method is world widely feasible.
10 Jul 2018
Geophysical and Geodetical Investigation of A Landslide Area (Koyulhisar-Sivas, Turkey)
Sevda Özel, Demet Över, and Kemal Özgür Hastaoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-153, 2018
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 12 comments)
10 Jul 2018
Estimation of path attenuation and site characteristics in the north-west Himalaya and its adjoining area using generalized inversion method
Harinarayan Nelliparambil Hareeshkumar and Abhishek Kumar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-148, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-148, 2018
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Present work focuses on the determination of path attenuation as well as site characteristics of PESMOS managed recording stations, located in the north-west Himalaya and its adjoining region, using two-step generalized inversion technique. In the first step of inversion, non-parametric attenuation curves are developed. Presence of a kink is observed at around 105 km hypocentral distance while correlating the path attenuation with the hypocentral distance indicating the presence of Moho discont.
02 Jul 2018
Preliminary results from the total lightning detector-cum-mini weather station installed at the Calcutta University
Subrata Kumar Midya, Sujay Pal, Reetambhara Dutta, Prabir Kumar Gole, Upal Saha, Goutami Chattopadhyay, and Soumyajit Hazra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-178, 2018
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
28 Jun 2018
Flood risk related to a fluvial system modified by dams with emphasis on morphodynamic and hydrological aspects
Karina Vanesa Echevarria, Susana Beatriz Degiovanni, Mónica Teresa Blarasin, Carlos Eric, and María Jimena Andreazzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-162, 2018
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
11 Jun 2018
Origin of the power-law exponent in the landslide frequency-size distribution
Ahoura Jafarimanesh, Arnaud Mignan, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-167, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
11 Jun 2018
Drought Risk Assessment by Using Drought Hazard and
Vulnerability Indexes
Ismail Dabanli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-129, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-129, 2018
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 0 comments)
Short summary
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In this research drought risk in Turkey were analyzed by using drought hazard and vulnerability indexes. The methodology is developed in the first time for calculating aforementioned indexes. Results illustrate that, not only climatic variables but also social characteristic of region are essential for drought risk assessment. Results also shows that If drought hazard index is lower and drought vulnerability index is high, drought risk may higher.
11 Jun 2018
Study on Mechanical Properties and Dissipation Capacity of Ring Net in Passive Rockfall Barriers
Chengqing Liu, Shuai Tian, Chengjie Xu, and Jingjin Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-76, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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we investigate the energy dissipation capacity of a single ring under different amount of tensile loading. A numerical model of the ring net for application in modelling flexible barriers is then presented.We find the release of boundary conditions can increase the overall flexibility of the ring net. As the impact angle increases, the impact energy of the rock will experience a gradual decline. The derived energy dissipation formulas provide a theoretical basis for engineering barriers.
05 Jun 2018
An Analysis of Swell and Bimodality Around the South and South-west Coastline of England
Daniel A. Thompson, Harshinie Karunarathna, and Dominic E. Reeve
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-117, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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We present an analysis of wave recordings along the south and south-west coasts of the United Kingdom, during the winter of 2013–2014. The storm that led to the collapse of the seawall at Dawlish is analysed in detail. The distribution of energy with wave period revealed a bimodal shape, with peaks in energy at approximately 7secs and 14secs. In many instances conditions lay outside the limits of empirical design formulae, providing an explanation for the extensive damage that occurred.
28 May 2018
Development of a methodological framework for the assessment of seismic induced tsunami hazard through uncertainty quantification: application to the
Azores-Gibraltar Fracture Zone
Vito Bacchi, Ekaterina Antoshchenkova, Hervé Jomard, Lise Bardet, Claire-Marie Duluc, Oona Scotti, and Hélène Hebert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-142, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
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The objective of this paper is to present a new methodology for the analysis of the seismic induced tsunami hazard. The proposed methodology mainly relies on uncertainty quantification techniques and the construction and validation of some
emulators, or
meta-models, used instead of the original models for the construction of a numerical tsunamis database. The methodology was tested with tsunamis generated by the Azores-Gibraltar Fracture Zone and potentially impacting the French Coast.
23 May 2018
The susceptibility assessment of multi-hazard in the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone, China
Chuanming Ma, Xiaoyu Wu, Bin Li, and Ximei Hu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-104, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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This paper proposes a new method that integrated the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Difference Method (MD) to assess susceptibility of geological hazards within MapGIS environment. The major principle of this method is that predict the probability of occurring geological hazards based on occurrence mechanism of occurred geological hazards and the geological conditions that caused geological hazards. Most of areas of the study area are under the moderate and low susceptibility zones.
17 May 2018
Early warning and drought risk assessment for the Bolivian Altiplano agriculture using high resolution satellite imagery data
Claudia Canedo Rosso, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Georg Pflug, Bruno Condori, and Ronny Berndtsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-133, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-133, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 9 comments)
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An early warning system with a risk-based approach for drought assessment in the Bolivian Altiplano was established using satellite imagery data focusing on ENSO phases. During warm ENSO phase resulted a great difference in risk and crop yield. ENSO early warning forecasts and possible crop deficits could be established, including the identification of hotspots for the growing season. Our approach could lead a proactive approach for drought management that can include risk reduction instruments.
02 May 2018
Ensemble flood forecasting considering dominant runoff processes: II. Benchmark against a state-of-the-art model-chain (Verzasca, Switzerland)
Christoph Horat, Manuel Antonetti, Katharina Liechti, Pirmin Kaufmann, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-119, 2018
Publication in NHESS not foreseen (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Two forecasting chains are forced by information from numerical weather predictions. The framework presented in the companion paper by Antonetti et al. has been set up for the Swiss Verzasca basin. The forecasts obtained with the uncalibrated RGM-PRO model are compared to forecasts yielded by the calibrated PREVAH-HRU model. Results shows that the uncalibrated model is able to compete with the calibrated operational prediction system and was consistently superior for
high-flow situations.
02 May 2018
Near- and far-field tsunami waves, displaced water volume,
potential energy and velocity flow rates by a stochastic
submarine earthquake source model
Khaled T. Ramadan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-107, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 1 comment)
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The source model was considered as a stochastic submarine earthquake. As the noise intensity increases, the amplitude and oscillation of the tsunami wave increases. The amount of water displaced increases as the length of the source model increases. The potential energy increases as the height of the wave increases. The L2 norm can be useful when there are no adequate data about the bottom topography. The average velocity may provide warning of a tsunami approach, based on velocity oscillations.
19 Apr 2018
Study On The Driving Mechanism Of Hydrologic Drought In Karst Basin Based On Landform Index: A Case Study of Guizhou, China
Zhonghua He, Hong Liang, Zhaohui Yang, and Xinbo Zeng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-10, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-10, 2018
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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We analyzed the geomorphologic distribution and the temporal-spatial variations of hydrological droughts. The rainfall and its variation during drought periods had very limited impacts on the hydrological droughts in karst drainage basins. During 2000–2010, the hydrological droughts in Guizhou Province increased year by year, and the inter-annual variation of hydrological droughts in Guizhou had obvious stage characteristics.
16 Apr 2018
An improved logistic probability prediction model for water shortage risk in situations with insufficient data
Longxia Qian, Ren Zhang, Chengzu Bai, Yangjun Wang, and Hongrui Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-56, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-56, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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The statistical data about risk and its factors are insufficient in China. For this reason, we proposed an improved logistic regression model for predicting water shortage risk probability when data is insufficient. The risk probability prediction model for water shortage risk was constructed and tested based on the data from 1979 to 2012. It was concluded that the risk prediction model was applicable. Risks in 2020 were evaluated under different scenarios of inflow conditions.
12 Apr 2018
Defining scale thresholds for geomagnetic storms through statistics
Judith Palacios, Antonio Guerrero, Consuelo Cid, Elena Saiz, and Yolanda Cerrato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-92, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
10 Apr 2018
An Automated Technique for Damage Mapping after Earthquakes by Detecting Changes between High-Resolution Images
Tianyu Ci, Zhen Liu, Ying Wang, Qigen Lin, and Di Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-73, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
Short summary
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Improving the speed and accuracy of earthquake disaster loss evaluations is very important for disaster response and rescue. This paper presents a new method for urban damage assessments after earthquake disasters by using a change detection technique between bi-temporal (pre- and post-event) high-resolution optical images.
21 Feb 2018
Risk assessment and management for an extreme accident at a waste
slag site
Shuang Liu, Bo Chai, Feng Luo, and Lili Xiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-37, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
19 Feb 2018
Towards impact-based flood forecasting and warning in Bangladesh: a case study at the local level in Sirajganj district
Fabio Sai, Lydia Cumiskey, Albrecht Weerts, Biswa Bhattacharya, and Raihanul Haque Khan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-26, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The research tackled the challenge of flood impact-based forecasting and service for Bangladesh by proposing an approach based on colour coded as mean for linking forecasted water levels to possible impacts. This was tested at the local level and, although limited to the case study, the results encouraged us to share our outcomes for triggering interest in such approach and to foster further research aimed to move it forward.
19 Feb 2018
Study on monitoring and numerical analyses of groundwater variation and inclinometer displacement induced by heavy typhoon rainfall
Ching-Jiang Jeng and Chia-Yu Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-35, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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This study analyze the monitoring data and the relationship between the groundwater variation caused by typhoon and the displacement of the slope. This study also obtain the time lag between groundwater level and rainfall, and reviews the effectiveness of the two catchpits. A series of shear tests are carried out. Finally, the software Geostudio is applied to analyze the relationship between rainfall infiltration, groundwater level, and the displacement of the entire slope.
12 Feb 2018
Earthquake safety analysis of masonry historical building
case study: Historical Konya Gazi High School
M. Sami Donduren and Seyit Uguz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-449, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
12 Feb 2018
Estimation of hazard assessment by FINSIM for west coast and son narmada faults
Shivamanth Angadi and Mayank Desai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-1, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-1, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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The main intention of the present work is to generate the Peak Ground Accelerations contour map for the Mumbai city using finite fault modeling technique incorporating the local soil properties and its amplification effects due to the earthquakes that may occur in the geological faults present in and around the Mumbai city.
05 Feb 2018
Physical laws for precursory phenomena of impending large earthquakes and their applications to predictions
Fumihide Takeda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-454, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-454, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Large or great earthquakes cannot be predicted due to chaotic seismicity. This is overcome by extracting faint precursors embedded in the seismicity with a mathematical tool named physical wavelets. The extraction provides their physical laws by which to predict the fault size and motion, rupture time, and epicenter of impending large events weeks and months ahead of time. The wavelets can formulate physical laws for precursory phenomena of natural and earth systems to mitigate their hazards.
05 Feb 2018
An inversion of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) mass concentrations based on the air quality index (AQI) during dust prone periods in Hotan oasis, Sinkiang
Ju Chunyan, Zhang Zili, Zhou Xu, and He Qing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-341, 2018
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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The objective of this publication is to analyse deeply the correlation coefficient of PM2.5 and AOD and aerosol optical depth (AOD). By using the matched Surface PM2.5 observation and AOD data from March to June in 2015 and 2016, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics are discussed, and the correlation coefficient of PM2.5 versus AOD are estimated. The results show that PM2.5 mass concentration and AOD vary greatly in different pollution weather.
31 Jan 2018
The Quick Assessment Model of Casualties for Asia based on the Vulnerability of Earthquake
Yue Zhang, Qigen Lin, Yanyi Liu, and Ying Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-21, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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In order to estimate casualties rapidly after earthquake for Asian countries, we created vulnerability curves portraying the empirical relationship between the magnitude of an earthquake event and the casualty rate caused by it for countries of six-groups and developed the Quick Assessment Model of Earthquake Casualties for Asia (QAMECA).The two input parameters of QAMECA were magnitude and location of epicenter and casualties can be estimated rapidly after earthquake has occurred.
30 Jan 2018
Accuracy assessment of real-time flood forecasting of coupled hydrological and mesoscale meteorological models
Aida Jabbari, Jae-Min So, and Deg-Hyo Bae
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-447, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-447, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In accuracy assessment of the hydro-meteorological models, the capability of the WRF model is evaluated for producing the real-time flood forecasting in Imjin basin. The variation of the spatial and temporal resolution and forecast lead time and their effects on the flood forecasting are quantified in this study. moreover the precipitation assessment for the point and catchment scale had higher accuracy for the catchment scale however the precipitation is underestimated for all the events.
30 Jan 2018
Global warming causes sinkhole collapse – Case study in Florida, USA
Yan Meng and Long Jia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-18, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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The paper reveals that the increase in sinkhole development correlates clearly with global warming which is of significance for studying the occurrence and prediction of other sinkhole collapse events and global warming on an international scale.
Sinkhole peaks can be predicted based on a drought index curve fitting equation.
New insights revealed into the relationship between global warming and geohazards and should study further through international comparison programs.
23 Jan 2018
The Role of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) In Monitoring Rapidly Occuring Landslides
Servet Yaprak, Omer Yildirim, Tekin Susam, Samed Inyurt, and Irfan Oguz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-13, 2018
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
15 Jan 2018
Seismic vulnerability of vernacular Newari buildings in Nepal: observations and analysis of damage due to 1934, 1988, 2011, and 2015 earthquakes
Dipendra Gautam and Hugo Rodrigues
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-435, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-435, 2018
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 0 comments)
11 Jan 2018
3-Dimensional modeling of 2014-Malin Landslide, Maharashtra using satellite-derived data: A quantitative approach to numerical simulation technique
Shovan Lal Chattoraj, Prashant K. Champati ray, Sudhakar Pardeshi, Vikram Gupta, and Yateesh Ketholia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-382, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
20 Dec 2017
Impacts of extreme weather events on transport infrastructure in Norway
Regula Frauenfelder, Anders Solheim, Ketil Isaksen, Bård Romstad, Anita V. Dyrrdal, Kristine H. H. Ekseth, Alf Harbitz, Carl B. Harbitz, Jan Erik Haugen, Hans Olav Hygen, Hilde Haakenstad, Christian Jaedicke, Árni Jónsson, Ronny Klæboe, Johanna Ludvigsen, Nele M. Meyer, Trude Rauken, Reidun G. Skaland, Kjetil Sverdrup-Thygeson, Asbjørn Aaheim, Heidi Bjordal, and Per-Anton Fevang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-437, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
Short summary
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We present results from the project
Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway. Our analyses document an increase in frequency and intensity of e.g. precipitation and wind during the last decades, and that these observed changes will continue throughout the 21st century. We could show that ≥ 27 % of main roads and 31 % of railroads are exposed to rockfall and avalanches. Pro-actively facing such risks will increase resilience and cost-efficiency of the transport infrastructure.
13 Dec 2017
Experimental study of embankment breach based on its construction parameters
Sachin Dhiman and Kanhu Charan Patra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-383, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
30 Nov 2017
A decision support system (DSS) for critical landslides and rockfalls and its application to some cases in the Western Italian Alps
Davide Bertolo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-396, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The Decision Support System (DSS) here described is inspired to the medical protocols based on Bayesian statistic, in order to manage active landslides.
It is aimed to minimize the false positives, i.e. the accelerations that are not a true forerunner of an ongoing collapse, performing a quantitative assessment of the degree of confidence associated with the civil protection alerts issued. It allows to combine in the decisional process both numerical and qualitative data.
23 Nov 2017
Tree-ring response to the 1995 Mw 7.2 Kobe earthquake, southwest Japan
Sujian Lin and Aiming Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-381, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-381, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Analysis of tree-rings revealed that the tree was cracked by earthquake-induced damage and that the tree-rings grown during the five-year period after the 1995 earthquake become sharply narrower in width compared to those grown before the earthquake. Our finding confirms the idea that (1) a large earthquake can affect tree-ring growth along the co-seismic deformation zone around the seismogenic fault zone and (2) tree-rings can be used as valid indicators of natural events such as earthquakes.
21 Nov 2017
Characterization agricultural vulnerability to drought in the Northeast of Brazil
Bruce K. N. Silva, Paulo S. Lucio, Cláudio M. S. Silva, Maria H. C. Spyrides, Madson T. Silva, and Lara M. B. Andradre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-377, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
20 Nov 2017
Influence of extreme long-term rainfall and unsaturated soil
properties on triggering of a landslide – a case study
Håkon Heyerdahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-410, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-410, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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This paper deals with effects of an autumn with very high rainfall in Eastern Norway. A slope very close to a house failed after a long period of continuous rainfall. In order to improve understanding of the processes involved, a case study was performed. Soil properties relevant for soil strength and infiltration were investigated in laboratory. Stability analyses show that the rainfall gradually destabilized the slope through the autumn of year 2000.
07 Nov 2017
Defining scale thresholds for geomagnetic storms through statistics
Judith Palacios, Antonio Guerrero, Consuelo Cid, Elena Saiz, and Yolanda Cerrato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-367, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-367, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Geomagnetic storms are continuously monitored with different indices and scales. These indices have some scale thresholds to quantify the severity or risk of geomagnetic disturbances. However, the most usual scale thresholds are arbitrarily chosen. In this work we aim to quantify the range of the storm thresholds through a new method. These new thresholds are based on statistical distribution fitting. The provided insight can improve risk assessment on this particular natural hazard.
03 Nov 2017
Multiply factors driving continual post-wildfire debris flows with varied rainfall thresholds in the Reneyong Valley, southwestern China
Mingfeng Deng, Yong Zhang, Mei Liu, Yuanhuan Wang, Wanyin Xie, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-390, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-390, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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Research of the post-wildfire in Reneyong Valley shows: (1) the thresholds of post-fire debris flows was low and tend to increase as time passes; (2) reason for the post-fire debris flows with high frequency lies in an increase in soil water repellency, the soft geology, drainage area, channel gradient and regional arid climate; and (3) the varied rainfall thresholds (low in branch No. 3 and higher in branch No. 1 and No. 2) among the different branches are dependent on the drainage area.
01 Nov 2017
Risk-based analysis of monitoring time intervals for landslide
prevention
Jongook Lee, Dong Kun Lee, Sung-Ho Kil, and Ho Gul Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-356, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-356, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Landslide is one of the most dangerous disasters. However, it is challenging to have costly measures to manage risk from landslides.The objective of this research is to analyse monitoring time intervals for low temporal resolution methods based on a risk study and to propose a plan for periodic landslide monitoring.The result shows that the timely landslide monitoring schedule can be planned by calculating the average probability of landslide occurrence considering risk reduction effects.
27 Oct 2017
1997 Typhoon Linda Storm Surge and People's Awareness 20 Years Later: Uninvestigated Worst Storm Event in the Mekong Delta
Hiroshi Takagi, Le Tuan Anh, and Nguyen Danh Thao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-365, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-365, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Typhoon Linda (1997) was the worst storm in the Mekong Delta. However, very little scientific information is available. Of the last 228 storms to make landfall in Vietnam, this tropical cyclone took the southernmost course, and the estimated reoccurrence period is once in 150 years or longer. Because the delta was a nearly uninhabited mangrove jungle before the 20th century, this particular typhoon event needs to be better studied to envisage a future catastrophic
gray swanevent.
26 Oct 2017
Bag-of-words-based anomaly-detection principal component analysis and stochastic optimization for debris flow detection and evacuation planning
Chia-Chun Kuo, Yi-Ren Yeh, Kuan-wen Chou, Chien-Lin Huang, and Ming-Che Hu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-325, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-325, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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Debris flows are natural disasters, with soil mass, rocks, and water traveling down a mountainside slope. Debris flows are extremely dangerous; their occurrence incurs huge losses to life and property. The purpose of this research is to develop debris flow detection and emergency evacuation systems. Case studies of debris flow detection in Shenmu village and Fengchiu, central Taiwan, are conducted.
25 Oct 2017
Recognition of spatial framework for water quality and its relation with land use/cover types from a new perspective: A case study of Jinghe Oasis in Xinjiang, China
Fei Zhang, Juan Wang, and Xiaoping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-358, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 9 comments)
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Water quality plays a pivotal role in habitat protection, agriculture, industry, and public health. The problem of how LULC types influence water quality is very important for water research and management. The research results can tentative exploration the relationship between water quality and land use/cover types in different clusters by SOM. It provides a new insight for further studies on the correlation between land use/cover and water quality in Jinghe Oasis.
24 Oct 2017
Discovering the differential and gendered consequences of natural disasters on the gender gap in life expectancy in Southeast Asia
Marshal Q. Murillo and Shukui Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-370, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This research article explored the relationship of the negative consequences of natural disasters on the gender gap in life expectancy in Southeast Asia. Using the regional data set over the period of 1995 to 2011, we employed random effects estimation method. We discovered that lower socioeconomic and political developments, as well as the countries' level of exposure and risks from the impacts of climate change, provide a disproportionate impact on Southeast Asian women's life expectancy.
18 Oct 2017
Flash-flood forecasting in two Spanish Mediterranean catchments: a comparison of distinct hydrometeorological ensemble prediction strategies
Béatrice Vincendon and Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-353, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-353, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Discharge forecasts are affected by meteorological and hydrological uncertainties, particularly difficult to handle when dealing with Mediterranean flash-flood. In this work, an intercomparison of two hydrometeorological ensemble strategies is presented for heavy precipitation events that affected semi-arid Spanish catchments. Both stategies are more beneficial than a deterministic approach when conveying information to end-users. Their skill is enhanced by shorter forecasting lead-times.
09 Oct 2017
Assessment of Forest Fire Rating Systems in Typical Mediterranean Forest, Crete, Greece
Mohamed Elhag and Slivena Boteva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-318, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 13 comments)
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The objective of this study is to test and evaluate the following FFDRS, to propose possible modifications that would better adapt these systems to the Mediterranean conditions. The implemented forest fire danger rating systems are the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), and Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) of the American National Forest Fire Danger Rating System (NFFDRS).
04 Oct 2017
Role of NAO and ENSO in the anomalous precipitation in the southern part of China – study on the two contrary high impact weather and climate cases
Qiuxia Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-143, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-143, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The two contrary high-impact weather and climate events in the southern part of China occurred during the 1982/1983 and 2009/2010 cold season, additionally, the prominent climate patterns in the boreal winter-the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the two types of El Nino were under way. Based on previous studies, we made a further investigation on how the NAO and the El Nino worked together to make the two special events, including the asymmetric relationship of NAO with two types of El Nino.
25 Sep 2017
An algorithm for estimating the detection efficiency of a lightning location system
Haibo Hu and Xiya Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-307, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
07 Sep 2017
Water-level attenuation in broad-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis
Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Mark Schuerch, Claudia Wolff, Tom Spencer, Jan L. Merkens, Jochen Hinkel, Daniel Lincke, Sally Brown, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-199, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-199, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
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Global assessments of coastal flooding are based on the assumption that water propagation follows a
bathtubpattern across the floodplain. Using a global model we find that this assumption can lead to overestimation of impacts, with an uncertainty range that can be of equal magnitude to uncertainties related to future sea-level rise. Our results highlight the importance of improving the representation of the spatial/temporal variation of water levels across floodplains of different landcover.
31 Aug 2017
Review Article: Validation of flood risk models: current practice and
innovations
Daniela Molinari, Karin De Bruijn, Jessica Castillo, Giuseppe T. Aronica, and Laurens M. Bouwer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-303, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-303, 2017
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Flood risk estimates are characterised by significant uncertainties; accordingly, evaluating the reliability of such estimates (i.e. validating flood risk models) is crucial. Here, we discuss the state of art of flood risk models validation with the aim of identifying policy and research recommendations towards promoting more common practice of validation. The main conclusions from this review can be summarised as the need of higher quality data to perform validation and of benchmark solutions.
28 Aug 2017
Application of FLaIR model for early warning system in Chibo Pashyor, Kalimpong, India for rainfall-induced landslides
Abhirup Dikshit and Neelima Satyam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-295, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-295, 2017
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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42 % of India's landmass prone to landslides falls in North East Himalaya. One such majorly affected area is Chibo Pashyor located in Darjeeling Himalayas in the state of West Bengal, India. Early warning systems due to rainfall induced landslides has not yet been attempted in this region. This paper is an attempt towards the use of hydrological model which would be an initial step towards setting up of early warning system with an objective to protect human lives from rain-induced landslides.
21 Aug 2017
Potential Impact of Landslide and Debris Flow on Climate Extreme –
A Case Study of Xindian Watershed in Taiwan
Shih-Chao Wei, Hung-Ju Shih, Hsin-Chi Li, and Ko-Fei Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-262, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-262, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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We proposed an integrated simulation including rainfall, landslides, and debris flows. In this simulation, the chain process is considered, and the potential effect or likely impact of compound disaster are also discussed on a watershed scale. Under extreme scenarios, the compound disaster becomes more series in our results and lead to increasing risk of stable water supply, isolated village effect, and other secondary disasters. A practical reference could be provided for further policy-making.
07 Aug 2017
Tsunami deposits in Martinique related to the 1755 Lisbon earthquake
Valérie Clouard, Jean Roger, and Emmanuel Moizan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-238, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-238, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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In order to assess tsunami hazard in oceanic islands, one needs to
enlarge the observational time window by finding more evidence of past
events. Here, we present a thick two-layer tsunami deposit evidenced in an archaeological excavation in Martinique and we relate it to the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. Our results indicate a way to improve our tsunami databases and further constrain the use of numerical modelling to predict paleo-tsunami deposit thickness.
28 Jul 2017
Debris flow initiation characteristics and occurrence probability after extreme rainfalls: case study in the Chenyulan watershed, Taiwan
Jinn-Chyi Chen, Jiang-Guao Jiang, Wien-Shun Huang, and Yuan-Fan Tsai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-265, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
26 Jul 2017
Kalman-filter based stochastic-multiobjective network optimization
and maximal-distance Latin hypercube sampling for uncertain
inundation evacuation planning
Tsang-Jung Chang, Yi-Hsuan Shih, and Ming-Che Hu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-248, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-248, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This study analyzes inundation evacuation under uncertainty. In this study, an efficient (Kalman-filter based stochastic-multiobjective network) model is established for iterative prediction, measurement, update, and optimization of stochastic inundation simulation and evacuation. The tradeoff and uncertainty analysis of evacuation planning is conducted and presented on the GIS platform for decision making.
13 Jul 2017
Prediction of rainfall induced landslide movements by artificial neural networks
Janko Logar, Goran Turk, Peter Marsden, and Tomaž Ambrožič
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-253, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Paper shows that artificial intelligence (AI) is able to make reliable short term predictions of rainfall induced landslide movements based on past measurements of daily rainfall and landslide movements. The procedure has been successfully tested on two different sliding phenomena with maximum rate of movements 600 and 0.094 mm/day, respectively. The goal of the research is to use AI to support hard decisions of civil protection (e.g. evacuation) when weather forecast predicts heavy rainfall.
07 Jul 2017
Analysis of decadal land cover changes and salinization in Urmia Lake Basin using remote sensing techniques
Yusuf Alizade Govarchin Ghale, Metin Baykara, and Alper Unal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-212, 2017
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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We would like to submit our article titled
Analysis of decadal land cover changes and salinization in Urmia Lake Basin using remote sensing techniquesto be reviewed as a potential publication for Journal of
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. The aim of this research is to use remote sensing technology and image processing techniques to detect spatio-temporal variability of salt body, salt affected lands, and irrigated lands in the basin to understand the extend of salinization.
06 Jul 2017
Implementation of a Geological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning System Based on Multi-source Spatial Data: A Case Study of Deqin County, Yunnan Province
Guo-ping Chen, Jun-san Zhao, Lei Yuan, Zun-jie Ke, Miao Gu, and Tao Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-191, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Geological disasters are due to geological tectonic defects and external drivers of an integrated ecological environment. Recently researchers have used a variety of techniques for different types of geological hazard monitoring and early warning to conduct relevant research and have achieved fruitful results. We study the spatial information of large-scale geological disasters by using 3D laser scanning, InSAR, high score image, UAV and GNSS. Deqin County is selected as research area to verify.
05 Jul 2017
Detection of Land Subsidence due to Excessive Groundwater Use Varying
with Different Land Cover Types in Quetta valley, Pakistan Using ESA-Sentinel Satellite Data
Waqas Ahmad, Minha Choi, Soohyun Kim, and Dongkyun Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-234, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
19 Jun 2017
The Probabilistic Drought Forecast Based on the Ensemble Technique Using the Korean Surface Water Supply Index
Suk Hwan Jang, Jae-Kyoung Lee, Ji Hwan Oh, Jun Won Jo, and Younghyun Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-163, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In this paper, we focus on the new hydrological drought index, Korean Surface Water Supply Index (KSWSI), which overcomes some of the limitations in the calculation of previous SWSI applied in Korea and conducts the probabilistic drought forecasts using KSWSI. The paper should be of interest to readers in the areas of the drought index and drought forecasts.
16 Jun 2017
Spatial prediction of earthquake-induced landslide probability
Robert N. Parker, Nicholas J. Rosser, and Tristram C. Hales
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-193, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-193, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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In mountainous regions, large earthquakes often trigger widespread and destructive landslides. Understanding and predicting where these landslides occur is important for assessing hazards, as well as investigating their impact on the physical landscape. Based on correlations between landslides and different landscape and earthquake characteristics in nine past earthquakes, we developed a generalised algorithm for predicting and mapping the probability of earthquake-triggered landslides.
13 Jun 2017
TAGGS: Grouping Tweets to Improve Global Geotagging for Disaster Response
Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Brenden Jongman, Jurjen Wagemaker, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-203, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-203, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In this work we present TAGSS, an algorithm that extracts and geolocates tweets using locations mentioned in the text of a tweet. We have applied TAGGS to flood events. However, TAGGS has enormous potential for application in the broad field of geosciences and natural hazards of any kind in particular, where availability of timely and accurate information about the impacts of an ongoing event can assist relief organizations in enhancing their disaster response activities.
07 Jun 2017
Cyclonic intensity study using sea level pressure estimations from Ocensat-II scatterometer winds over Bay of Bengal during 2013
C. Purna Chand, M. Venkateswara Rao, K. V. S. R . Prasad, and K. H. Rao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-66, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-66, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This study carried out to check the variations of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) during the cyclone conditions. SLP fields are estimated using University of Washington Planetary Boundary Layer model during Phailin, Lehar and Madi, three vary severe cyclonic storms which occurred in 2013 over Bay of Bengal region. Model performance in estimating SLP variations during cyclonic periods was investigated by comparison against cyclone reports of Indian Meteorological Department and in-situ observations.
29 May 2017
Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility using an artificial
neural network in Enshi region, China
Bin Zeng, Wei Xiang, Joachim Rohn, Dominik Ehret, and Xiaoxi Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-176, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-176, 2017
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Landslides are one of the most common and damaging natural hazards in mountainous areas. Based on the failure mechanism analysis, a targeted evaluation factor index system was developed, and a prediction model combined GIS technology with artificial neural network was established for predicting distribution of unstable slope zones that are prone to landslides in the study area. The result proves that the prediction method based on intelligence theory and GIS technology is accurate and reliable.
24 May 2017
Mapping Accessibility in the Historic Urban Center of Bucharest for Earthquake Hazard Response
Ioan Ianoş, George-Laurentiu Merciu, Cristinia Merciu, and George Pomeroy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-13, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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Planning for post-disaster accessibility is essential in providing emergency and other services to the impacted areas after such events, particularly in congested historic districts. This paper examines simulated accessibility for central Bucharest through the use of mapping and GIS technologies. The finding is that accessibility will be substantially compromised by anticipated building collapse. Given the findings, a fuller appreciation of compromised accessibility is needed.
12 May 2017
Analysing flood fatalities in Vietnam using national disaster database and tree-based methods
Chinh Luu, Jason Von Meding, and Sittimont Kanjanabootra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-155, 2017
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Although Vietnam is high vulnerable to flood hazards; there is a significant lack of systematic research on flood fatalities. We respond to this gap and explore the national disaster database to analyse flood fatalities. The results show that floods kill at least 553 people per year, and housing factor has the greatest influence on flood fatalities in Vietnam. The findings allow us to make recommendations for government policies on improving housing quality for the poor in flood-prone areas.
03 May 2017
Coastal flooding risk associated to tropical cyclones in a changing
climate. Application to Port of Spain (Trinidad and Tobago)
Cristina Izaguirre, Iñigo J. Losada, Antonio Espejo, Javier Diez-Sierra, and Pedro Díaz-Simal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-150, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Coastal flooding driven by Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and enhanced by climate change is a crucial threat in TC areas. Port of Spain is a Caribbean city with stakeholders showing interest in obtaining threat insight for 2050 to support medium-term planning. We propose and apply a methodology, based on the hazard-exposure-vulnerability approach, with an integrative nature providing useful information to the policymakers, regarding their needs and available data and resources.
18 Apr 2017
Quantitative assessment of rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility in new urban area of Fengjie County, Three Gorges area, China
Haijia Wen, Yanyan Zhang, Guofan Duan, Hongmei Fu, Peng Xie, Peng Zhou, and Yong Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-99, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-99, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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In our work, a quantitative assessment of rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility in new urban area of Fengjie County was carried out. The methodology presented was based on the combination of slope stability analysis and ANN and of GIS and detailed field investigation. The employment of ANN was a bridge between the individual slope stability analysis and the overall slope stability analyses in a regional scale, and within a GIS the assessment of the landslide susceptibility was mapped.
11 Apr 2017
Natural Disasters in Southeastern Brazil Associated with the South
Atlantic Convergence Zone
Jonas Teixeira Nery and Leônidas Malvestio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-33, 2017
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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I directed a master's degree students with the topic of natural disasters. This student has classified some South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) that occurs in Brazil in the spring and summer. Through the Wave Radiation it was possible to classify some natural disasters in the area of study.
27 Mar 2017
Model sensitivity for the prediction of extreme sea level events at a wide and fast-flowing estuary: the case of the Río de la Plata
Matías G. Dinapoli, Claudia G. Simionato, and Diego Moreira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-393, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-393, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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The Río de la Plata Estuary (ubicated at South-Western South Atlantic Continental Shelf) presents extreme storm surges generated by persistent and strong southeasterly winds (Sudestadas) which has historically caused catastrophic floods. A sensitivity analysis of the many inputs parameter was made for a 2-D barotropic application of the ROMS_AGRIF ocean model. As a result, the most important input is wind speed. That suggests that should make focus in a better regional wind speed calibration.
15 Mar 2017
Exposure to Floods, Climate Change, and Poverty in Vietnam
Mook Bangalore, Andrew Smith, and Ted Veldkamp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-100, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This paper examines the exposure to current and future flooding in Vietnam and in Ho Chi Minh City, using new high-resolution flood hazard maps and spatial socioeconomic data on poverty. While floods already expose a third of the population today, climate change impacts may increase exposure by more than 20 %, with significant implications for poor households in urban areas. This paper provides implications regarding infrastructure development, land use planning, and strategies to manage floods.
01 Mar 2017
Learning risk management of geohazards in practice with free and open-source web-GIS based platform: RISKGIS
Zar Chi Aye, Roya Olyazadeh, Marc-Henri Derron, Michel Jaboyedoff, and Johann Lüthi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-85, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In this paper, we present an open-source, web-GIS application (RISKGIS), developed for students learning in risk management of geohazards with real case studies. The aim is for students to better understand and become familiarized with approaches used by experts as well as for teachers to better evaluate and monitor student learning. A series of practical exercises is carried out with students and feedback are collected to identify the possibility and applicability of RISKGIS learning platform.
27 Feb 2017
Homogenous regions based on extremogram for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew storm surges
Marc Andreewsky, Samuel Griolet, Yasser Hamdi, Pietro Bernardara, and Roberto Frau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-378, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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The aim of our study is to achieve extreme statistics on skew storm surges and to reduce uncertainties that are found in a local analysis by using a regional frequency analysis, for which, an important step, is to form a physically homogeneous region. Our method, which allows one to shape those physical homogeneous regions, is based on the use of the spatial extremogram, a correlation between extremes from two sites, and the regions found are consistent geographically and without border effect.
27 Feb 2017
A dynamical approach to study the time dependent behavior of
the Kuhbanan fault zone (Kerman – Iran)
Mohammadreza Tavakoli and Hosein Amiri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-1, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-1, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In this research a proposed methodology is improved to identify how the stresses increase between two Earthquakes in a fault zone. Using the Coulomb stresses at selected times, one can see how the stress increase with time between Earthquakes. The best fit of points of stress versus time is a polynomial relation. The model will help to estimate the stress accumulation with time until the next event, this means one can estimate the approaching time to the next main shock.
22 Feb 2017
Measuring and Characterizing Community Recovery to Earthquake: the Case of
2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, China
Jie Liu, Zhenwu Shi, Di Lu, and Yongliang Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-72, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
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Our research defined community recovery as the capacity to recover and rebuild itself rapidly to an acceptable level of functioning and structure following the earthquake disasters occur, and developed a quantitative approach for measuring and characterizing the community recovery in four dimensions to guide planning of appropriate response and reconstruction policies, and emphasizing that the community recovery is strongly influenced by the decision making of local governments.
21 Feb 2017
Monitoring the geodynamic behaviour of earthquake using Landsat 8-OLI time
series data: case of Gorkha and Imphal
Biswajit Nath, Zheng Niu, Shukla Acharjee, and Hailang Qiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-10, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-10, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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To remove the scientific barrier of earthquake prediction we have developed new novel approaches which we tested in two recent major earthquakes in different geological settings Gorkha of Nepal 7.8 Mw and Imphal, Manipur of Eastern India 6.8 Mw using Landsat 8 OLI time series data. The research results witnessed major variations in lineament number, lineament length and its trends obtained using the automated and geo-integrated methods can apply for earthquake monitoring and earlier prediction.
20 Feb 2017
Design Considerations of Artificial Mangrove Embankments for Mitigating Coastal Floods – Adapting to Sea-level Rise and Long-term Subsidence
Hiroshi Takagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-61, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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The function of mangrove embankments in attenuating tides was investigated. The developed model is capable of simulating tides over an artificial platform, which changes its ground level because of SLR, subsidence, vegetation growth and sediment accretion. An embankment without considering geomorphological transitions will be submerged, resulting in no tidal damping, whereas high tides could be mitigated if an equilibrium state can be maintained among these influences over the long term.
16 Feb 2017
Weigh(t)ing the dimensions of social vulnerability based on a
regression analysis of disaster damages
Vincent David Corvin Heß
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-74, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 9 comments)
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Large uncertainties remain on how to quantify social vulnerability in a comprehensive way. Standard approaches combine many social indicators into a single vulnerability index. However, we observe no correlation between disaster damages and a vulnerability index based on literature-derived assumptions about the influence of each indicator. A regression analysis of past damages can improve the interpretation of social indicators by representing the local and domain-specific circumstances.
14 Feb 2017
Groundwater level changes on Jeju Island associated with the
Kumamoto and Gyeongju earthquakes
Soo-Hyoung Lee, Yoon-Suk Park, Kyoochul Ha, YongCheol Kim, Sung-Wook Kim, and Se-Yeong Hamm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-28, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
13 Feb 2017
Brief Communication: Use of multicopter drone optical images for landslide mapping and characterization
Guglielmo Rossi, Luca Tanteri, Veronica Tofani, Pietro Vannocci, Sandro Moretti, and Nicola Casagli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-46, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-46, 2017
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The Department of Earth Sciences of Florence (DST) has developed a new type of drone chassis that has been equipped with an optical camera to map landslides. The images acquired during the aerial drone surveys allowed to obtain a continuous 3D surface model of the studied area using a photogrammetric approach.The drone survey has proven to be an easier and more cost- and time-effective approach with respect to other techniques to mpa landslides.
13 Feb 2017
A GIS-based monitoring and early warning system for
cover-collapse sinkholes in karst terrane in Wuhan, China
Li Xueping, Xiao Shangde, Tang Huiming, and Peng Jinsheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-22, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
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A GIS-based monitoring and early warning system for cover-collapse sinkholes in karst terrane in Wuhan, China has been established so as to reduce disastrous losses caused by karst collapse. Three types warning criteria for cover-collapse sinkholes has been established in the system. Three levels have been used to classify the warning grade. Level I refers to the stat
safe; level II refers
becoming dangerous; and level III refers
dangerous.
07 Feb 2017
Erosive phenomena in the Kaulon archaeological site: origins and remedies
Giuseppe Barbaro, Salvatore Siviglia, Giandomenico Foti, Carmelo Luca Sicilia, Maria Clorinda Mandaglio, Ferdinando Frega, and Pierfabrizio Puntorieri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-399, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-399, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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The paper studies the possible causes of erosion that have recently affected the shoreline in front of the Kaulon archaeological park. The site in question is of great historical and archaeological interest for the presence of numerous finds of
Magna Greciaperiod. A scan of the causes of erosion described in the paper is critical to properly design the coastal defense works and should be present in all of its projects.
30 Jan 2017
Building Asset Value Mapping in Support of Flood Risk Assessment:
A Case Study of Shanghai, China
Jidong Wu, Xu Wang, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-17, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Building stock loss occupied a meaningful part of sudden-onset disasters, while raster-level building asset distribution map is scarce and not sufficient for disaster risk estimation. This paper introduces an efficient way for building asset value mapping by downscaling, given that the statistical building floor area and a building footprint map are available. It is expected that the method used in this paper is transferable to be applied in other cities if the two datasets are all available.
30 Jan 2017
Assessing the extreme risk of coastal inundation due to climate change: A case study of Rongcheng, China
Aiqing Feng, Jiangbo Gao, Shaohong Wu, Yanzhong Li, and Xiliu Yue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-31, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The paper demonstrated that continuous sea-level rise in the future would exacerbate the inundation risk by shortening recurrence periods and increasing the expected losses and potential effect exposed to extreme flooding.
02 Jan 2017
Stochastic consideration of relationship between occurrences of
earthquake and fluctuations in the radio wave propagation
Kuniyuki Motojima, Kousuke Tanigawa, and Nozomi Haga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-379, 2017
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
30 Nov 2016
The analysis of H/V curve from different ellipticity retrieval technique for a single 3c-station recording
Irfan Ullah and Renato Luiz Prado
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-370, 2016
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The destruction cause by an earthquake at site depends on the source, propagation path and the effect of soft soil on the seismic motion.The soil effect are find out by two parametesr, shear wave velocity and the fundamental frequency (f) of site.To obtain shear wave velocity of deep soil deposit two technique are combined H/V and dispersion curve. The H/V curve contained some unwanted seismic waves,which lead to error. Here we want to remove that unwanted part of H/V curve by various techniques.
17 Nov 2016
Spatial characteristics analysis of drought disasters in North China during
the Ming and Qing Dynasties
Shuoben Bi, Shengjie Bi, Changchun Chen, Athanase Nkunzimana, Yanping Li, and Weiting Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-249, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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The paper studies grade sequence of drought disasters in North China from 1470 to 1912. Two aspects are explored in order to study the spatial distribution and characteristics of drought disaster. The reconstruction of the sequence of drought disaster was based on EOF and on Rotated EOF. The drought disaster has been divided into several models and into several sensitive areas. It can provide an basis for better understanding of the spatial distribution of drought disasters in North China.
11 Nov 2016
Bias Correction of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates for Modeling Flash Floods in Semi-Arid regions: Application to Karpuz River, Turkey
Mohamed Saber and Koray Yilmaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-339, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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We attempted to investigate the utility of gauge-corrected satellite-based rainfall estimates to improve flash floods simulation at semi-arid basin. Different scenarios were conducted to estimate the bias factors to correct GSMaP data. We found underestimated bias and good linear correlation. Also, an appropriate threshold selection is critically important for correction. Then, the HydroBEAM model was calibrated and validated showing a reasonable performance based on the statistical analysis.
28 Oct 2016
Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050
Kuo Li and Jie Pan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-257, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-257, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The risk of meteorological drought in whole China in the future (2016-2050) under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) is accomplished. It is meaningful to integrate the hazard assessment and vulnerability evaluation together. A feasible method of combining the physical factors and social-economic factors together to assess drought disasters is established. The spatial distributions of drought risk are accomplished under RCP scenarios based on PRECIS.
26 Oct 2016
Shallow subsurface geology and seismic microzonation in a deep continental basin. The Avezzano Town, Fucino basin (central Italy)
Paolo Boncio, Giuliano Milana, Fabrizio Cara, Giuseppe Di Giulio, Deborah Di Naccio, Daniela Famiani, Francesca Liberi, Fabrizio Galadini, Gianluigi Rosatelli, and Maurizio Vassallo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-313, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
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The paper discusses geological aspects, methodological procedures of seismic microzonation and the implications on seismic site response of an urbanized area in a geologic environment of deep continental basin (the Avezzano town in the Fucino continental basin of central Apennines, Italy). The paper is of potential interest for the geological community and also for non-geologist scientists/technicians/decision makers working in the field of earthquake hazard.
26 Oct 2016
Liquefaction, landslide and slope stability analyses of soils: a case study of
soils from part of Kwara, Kogi and Anambra states of Nigeria
Olusegun O. Ige, Tolulope A. Oyeleke, Christopher Baiyegunhi, Temitope L. Oloniniyi, and Luzuko Sigabi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-297, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-297, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Geotechnical analysis was used to investigate the liquefaction potential in three major landslide prone areas in Nigeria. The result shows that liquefaction is the main cause of landslide and with necessary vibration, liquefaction in those sites could be disastrous. The factor of safety values for the Anambra site indicate stability but care must be taken as the condition shows that the slope is in its state of impending failure. Loading is also a contributing factor to the slope failure.
25 Oct 2016
Debris flow sediment control using multiple herringbone water-sediment separation structures
Xiangping Xie, Fangqiang Wei, Xiaojun Wang, Hongjuan Yang, and James S. Gardner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-340, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-340, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This research was mainly focus on the sediment control effects of multiple herringbone water-sediment separation structures. We basically use hydraulic model tests to do this research. By statistic analysis, sediment control effects by series of them. We basically use hydraulic model tests to do this research. By statistic analysis, sediment control effects were qualitatively and quantitatively described. Preliminary implications were concluded for future research.
19 Oct 2016
Estimation of flash flood using surface water model and GIS technique in Wadi El Azariq, East Sinai, Egypt
Maged M. El Osta, Mohamed Sh. El Sabri, and Milad H. Masoud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-311, 2016
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 0 comments)
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My paper Research highlights are as follows:
(1) Estimation of flash flood using hydrologic model and GIS technique in wadi El Azareq.
(2) Flash flood hazard evaluation for ungagged subbasins based on the hydrological characteristics.
(3) The integration analysis between morphometric parameters and GIS techniques.
(4) Watershed Modelling System (WMS) is applied to generate the hydrograph of subbasins.
(5) Areas of inundation were calculated during return period of 10 years.
18 Oct 2016
Landslide susceptibility assessment of the part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone
(Turkey) by GIS-based frequency ratio and index of entropy models
Gökhan Demir
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-327, 2016
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
05 Oct 2016
Modelling and assessment of urban flood hazards based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves reformation
Reza Ghazavi, Ali Moafi Rabori, and Mohsen Ahadnejad Reveshty
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-304, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In this study, we indicated that urbanization and climate change decreased rainfall intensity and flood volume. This should increase water shortage in such area located in arid and semi- arid area. As climate change cause increasing and decreasing of rainfall in different area, so we emphasis on the necessity of the urban flood hazards study based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves reformation.
27 Sep 2016
Glacial lake change risk and management on the Chinese Nyainqentanglha in the past 40 years
Wang Shijin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-300, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-300, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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GLOF is low-frequency event, but it often causes enormous loss and damage of life, property and human environment in downstream regions. The economic losses caused by GLOF are much higher than the project costs to early consolidate moraine dam and release flood waters. Glacial lake outbursts can be very difficult and expensive to control, but regional exposure and vulnerability of exposed elements downstream can be reduced by improving adaptation capacity and risk management level.
02 Aug 2016
Lightning risk assessment at a high spatial resolution using the resident sub-district scale: A case study in Beijing metropolitan areas
Hai Bo Hu and Jing Xiao Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-231, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-231, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
29 Jul 2016
Analysis of slope processes in the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain) by means of Cross Correlation Function applied to high frequency monitoring data
Marco Mulas, Jordi Corominas, Alessandro Corsini, and Jose Moya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-253, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In this work, the Cross-Correlation Function is used in order to quantitatively investigate the time-lagged correlation between high frequency monitoring data on rainfall, piezometric and displacement with the objective to evidence hydro-mechanical processes in the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). The analysis highlighted and constrained in time a dual triggering mechanism in which factors controlling movement change from the upper to the lower part of the landslide.
05 Jul 2016
Relative role of individual variables on a revised Convective System Genesis
Parameter over north Indian Ocean with respect to distinct background state
K. G. Sumesh, S. Abhilash, and M. R. Ramesh Kumar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-155, 2016
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 1 comment)
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A cyclogenesis index (CSGP) is introduced and its variations have been evaluated for the period 1979 to 2008. It is found that CSGP is able to distinguish different categories of storms over North Indian Ocean. The relative roles of contributing parameters are analyzed to study the influence of CGSP with respect different background states. It is found that vorticity, convergence, relative humidity and convective instability should be high enough to offset the negative impact of shear parameter.
27 Jun 2016
Data-driven Flood Analysis and Decision Support
Meng-Han Tsai, Er-Xuan Sung, and Shih-Chung Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-141, 2016
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Urban flash flooding tends to be more frequent than usual in Taiwan. This article hence purposed a flood early warning system to reduce the risk of flood. The three main components of the system are rainfall data acquisition, identifying the potential flood area, and visually display the flood hazard map. The goal is to improve the operating efficiency of decision-making process by reducing the time of flood hazard map production and improving practitioners' efficiency on understanding hazard.
23 Jun 2016
Atmospheric and ionospheric coupling phenomena related to large earthquakes
M. Parrot, V. Tramutoli, Tiger J. Y. Liu, S. Pulinets, D. Ouzounov, N. Genzano, M. Lisi, K. Hattori, and A. Namgaladze
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-172, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Since tens of years perturbations have been observed in the ionosphere prior to earthquakes (between a few hours and a few days before). But the mechanism to understand how the earthquake preparation in a seismic area can induce a change in the ionosphere is the subject of intense debate. In this paper we present various atmospheric and ionospheric perturbations observed prior to large earthquakes in order to support a model of coupling between the lithosphere, the atmosphere, and the ionosphere.
20 Jun 2016
Hydrodynamic characterization of past flash-flood events and their associated hazards from dendrogeomorphological evidence in Caldera de Taburiente National Park (Canary Islands, Spain)
Julio Garrote, Andrés Diez-Herrero, José M. Bodoque, María A. Perucha, Pablo Mayer, and Mar Genova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-206, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The paper shows a study assessing different flooding scenarios based on the height of scars in trees as indicators for peak discharge estimation in an ungauged fluvial basin with sand and gravel riverbed. The use of scars on trees together with the combined use of 2D hydraulic model and LIDAR topographic data, has allowed a better peak discharge estimation of January, 11–13, 1997 flash flood and its related hazards, than estimation from rainfall data. This could improve flooding risk mapping.
14 Jun 2016
A GCMs-based mathematic model for droughts prediction in the Haihe Basin, China: Multi-GCM Divide-Integration
Dongmei Han, Denghua Yan, Xinyi Xu, Zhongwen Yang, and Yajing Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-150, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-150, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Previous studies focused on using single GCM or multi-model ensemble mean to assess the skills of GCMs, but results were not satisfactory for extreme rainfall or at a small spatial scale. With the consideration of GCMs applicability at different space-time scales, this study proposes a new approach of multi-GCM divide-integration model constructed by multi-linear regression model, the performance of MGDI model correction has been improved significantly.
08 Jun 2016
Transfer Entropy between South Atlantic Anomaly and Global Sea Level for the last 300 years
Saioa A. Campuzano, Angelo De Santis, Francisco Javier Pavón-Carrasco, María Luisa Osete, and Enkelejda Qamili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-56, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-56, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
26 May 2016
Empirical Study on Drought Adaptation of Regional Rainfed Agriculture in China
Zhiqiang Wang, Qing Ma, Siyu Chen, Lan Deng, and Jingyi Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-94, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-94, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
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With global warming, the risk of agricultural drought is increasing. Through the empirical analysis of this paper, it found that farmers and the government always spontaneously adjust their development demands and take measures to adapt to environmental change, thus a dynamic agricultural drought adaptation model with the regional characteristics was formed in the area. Agricultural drought risk (R) is the function of environment (E), demand (D) and adaptation (A), or R = f (E, D, A).
19 May 2016
Influence of heat index on regional mortality in Europe
Daniel Lee and Thomas Brenner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-154, 2016
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Hot weather has been shown in many studies to have detrimental effects on human health. In this paper we explore the effects of hot weather on mortality at a regional level across Europe. It shows that hot weather causes increased numbers of death. Furthermore, it shows that regions with different demographic structures are affected differently by hot weather. This implies that lessons can be learned from robust regions and transferred to vulnerable regions, thus possibly saving lives.
13 May 2016
Using spatial Markovian chain for the statistical analysis of seismic occurrences in the Azores Region
Maria Cecília M. Rodrigues and Carlos S. Oliveira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-113, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
11 May 2016
Research trends on hazards, disasters, risk reduction and climate change in Indonesia: a systematic literature review
Riyanti Djalante
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-112, 2016
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The paper examines progress in research related hazards, risks, disasters, disaster risk reduction and management in Indonesia. It also reviews the roles of Indonesian authors in those publications. The study finds that majority of research focusses on hazards while only recently they focusses on risk reduction and management. This study recommends future research needs and capacity building in writing and collaboration between Indonesia and international researchers.
10 May 2016
A preliminary study on the comprehensive threshold for debris-flow early warning
Xiaoqiang Xue and Jian Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-149, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Two aspects of this manuscript we have done. First, a comprehensive threshold consisting of pore-water pressure from Terzaghi theory, and rainfall factors from frequent usage for predicting debris-flow occurrence is presented. Second, the three-level early warning criteria (Zero, Attention, and Warning) has been adopted and the corresponding judgement conditions has been defined based on monitoring data in a real-time way, which is might be a useful approach for a real-time warning system.
28 Apr 2016
Hypoxia disaster in waters adjacent to the Changjiang estuary
Xiaofan Luo, Hao Wei, Renfu Fan, Zhe Liu, and Liang Zhao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-59, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Based on observational data from ten cruises carried out in 2012 and 2013, the distribution of dissolved oxygen (DO) and hypoxia (DO < 2.0 mg L−1) evolution in waters adjacent to the Changjiang estuary are studied. The results suggest that hypoxia to the south of the Changjiang estuary near the 30–50 m isobaths tends to happen under strong stratification without the presence of the Kuroshio Subsurface Water, and hypoxia over the bank is in agreement with the Changjiang dilute water extension.
14 Apr 2016
Linking local vulnerability assessments to climatic hazard losses for river basin management
Hung-Chih Hung, Yi-Chung Liu, and Sung-Ying Chien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-114, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The impacts of climate change and related hazards have led to a challenge for local authorities to improve their understanding of the linkage between vulnerability and disaster losses. A novel methodology is proposed to evaluate and map vulnerability to climatic hazards across river basins. The linkages between the hazard impact, vulnerability factors and disaster losses are also tested. The findings show that both hazard impact and vulnerability factors are strong predictors of disaster losses.
11 Apr 2016
Evaluation of Environmental Factors in Landslide Prone Areas of Central Taiwan using Spatial Analysis of Landslide Inventory Maps
Kui-Lin Fu, Bor-Shiun Lin, Kent Thomas, Chun-Kai Chen, and Hsing-Chuan Ho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-127, 2016
Preprint retracted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
11 Apr 2016
Analysis of applicability of flood vulnerability index in Pre-Saharan region, a pilot study to assess flood in Southern Morocco
A. Karmaoui, S. F. Balica, and M. Messouli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-96, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
29 Mar 2016
Flood forecasting using transboundary data with the fuzzy inference system: The Maritza (Meriç) River
Abdurrahim Aydın, İbrahim Yücedağ, and Remzi Eker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-86, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Because the section of the Maritza River inside the Turkish border is short, there is not adequate warning time for Turkey to alert the population against flash floods. Although early warning systems offer the population time to evacuate before floods, improving such systems involves multiple components, each with a cost. That's why, four fuzzy models were developed satisfactorily predict the flow regime with high accuracy from transboundary flow data originating from three gauging stations.
24 Mar 2016
Maintenance and risk management of rockfall protection net fences through numerical study of deteriorations
Andrea Luciani, Monica Barbero, Daniele Martinelli, and Daniele Peila
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-78, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-78, 2016
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Maintenance of rockfall protection net fences is fundamental for public administrations in order to guarantee risk mitigation. In this paper the influence of deteriorations on the behaviour of this works is analysed using a numerical simulation of the impact of rocks on net fences with different damages. The residual efficiency of a deteriorated net fence is extimated and the resulting variation of the risk mitigation is evaluated. This appraisal allows owners to better plan maintenance works.
18 Mar 2016
Sensitivity study of the tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies
Shouwen Zhang, Hua Jiang, Hui Wang, Ling Du, and Dakui Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-83, 2016
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
29 Feb 2016
Electrical Resistivity Tomography surveys for the geoelectric characterization of the Montaguto landslide (southern Italy)
Jessica Bellanova, Giuseppe Calamita, Alessandro Giocoli, Raffaele Luongo, Angela Perrone, Vincenzo Lapenna, and Sabatino Piscitelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-28, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
19 Feb 2016
Coseismic deformation field derived from Sentinel-1A data and slip inversion of the 2015 Chile Mw8.3 earthquake
Ronghu Zuo, Chunyan Qu, XinJian Shan, Yingfeng Zhang, Guohong Zhang, Xiaogang Song, Yunhua Liu, and Guifang Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-342, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-342, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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We obtain the coseismic surface deformation fields of the Chile Mw8.3 earthquake through analyzing Sentinel-1A/IW InSAR data from ascending and descending tracks. Based on an elastic dislocation model, we invert the coseismic fault slip.The depth where coseismic slip is near zero appears to a depth of 50 km, quantitatively indicating the down-dip limit of the seismogenic zone. At the same time, we find increased coseismic Coulomb stress change correlate well with the location of aftershocks.
16 Feb 2016
Modelling extreme discharge response to several geostatistically interpolated rainfall using very sparse raingage data
Sarann Ly, Catherine Sohier, Catherine Charles, and Aurore Degré
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-16, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This study presents modelling work of extreme discharge response to rainfall inputs interpolated by various approaches. Elevation is used as external data to improve the rainfall prediction. Thirty years of daily rainfall in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments (hilly landscape of Belgium) are used as inputs for a distributed hydrological model. We assess the effectiveness of extreme flow prediction using these methods. The position of the raingages is the key factor for rainfall interpolation.
04 Feb 2016
A Continuous Dynamic Prediction Model of Gas Pressure Based on Gas Emission at Excavation Face and its Engineering Application
Chen Liang and Wang Enyuan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-322, 2016
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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we established a gas pressure prediction model, and verified it using numerical simulation and applied it into engineering. The results showed that the predicted gas pressure was roughly consistent with the actual situation, indicating that the prediction model had a higher accuracy, and could meet the need of engineering projects. Engineering application of the model successfully predicted coal and gas dynamic phenomena at the excavation face.
27 Jan 2016
Analysis of how dry-hot wind hazard has changed for winter wheat in the Huang-huai-hai plain
Benlin Shi, Xinyu Zhu, Hongzhong Li, Yunchuan Hu, and Yi Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-330, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The range and frequency of dry-hot wind exhibited tended to decline in the recent 50 years. The most serious damages of light and severe dry-hot wind both occurred in 1960s while the damages appeared less in the 1980s and the last decade, which could be also explained by the corresponding temperature, moisture and wind speed conditions. Yields of winter wheat were negatively correlated with annual average days of dry-hot wind in Shangqiu.
26 Jan 2016
First GPS TEC maps of ionospheric disturbances induced by reflected tsunami waves: The Tohoku case study
L. Tang, Y. Zhao, and J. An
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-11, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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Previous studies focused on the ionospheric signature induced by straight tsunami waves. In this study, we apply the two-dimensional TEC maps derived from a dense GPS network (GEONET) to detect the reflected tsunami signature in ionosphere after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The results indicate not only the straight tsunami waves from mainshock, but also the reflected tsunami waves might have potential to induce ionospheric disturbances.
26 Jan 2016
GIS-based Real-time Framework of Debris Flow Hazard Assessment for Expressways in Korea
C. K. Chung, H. S. Kim, S. R. Kim, and K. S. Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-2, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-2, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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The development of a real-time system for debris flow hazard assessment is necessary to provide preliminary information for rapid decision making of evacuations or restoration measures and to prevent second-hand disasters caused by debris flows. In this study, a GIS-based real-time framework of debris flow hazards for expressway sections was newly proposed and a safety management system for debris flow hazards was developed using Korea Expressway Corporation debris flow hazard assessment method.
19 Jan 2016
Assessment of rockfall hazard on the steep-high slopes: Ermenek (Karaman, Turkey)
Hidayet Taga and Kıvanç Zorlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-337, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-337, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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Ermenek is located in the northern side of the very steep cliffs, which are formed of jointed limestone. These cliffs, having a slope dip of nearly 90°, are the main rockfall source areas.
Up to now, depending on the rockfall event, nearly 500 residences have been severely damaged, and the loss of life has occurred in Ermenek.
19 Jan 2016
Evaluating the Efficiency of Subsurface Drainages for Li-Shan Landslide in Taiwan
Der-Guey Lin, Sheng-Hsiung Hung, Cheng-Yu Ku, and Hsun-Chuan Chan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-309, 2016
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
19 Jan 2016
Applying IT Communication Technology in Public Awareness and Education for Reducing Hazard Casualty in South East Asia Developing Countries
S. P. Koay, L. T. Tay, H. Y. Chan, S. Jamaludin, H. Fukuoka, H. Hazarika, N. Sakai, and H. Lateh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-15, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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In developing countries, especially most of South East Asia countries, every year landslides, mudslides and flood occur during monsoon rainy season and cause casualties not only in rural areas, but also in urban areas. Public awareness and education activities are important to reduce the casualties of such natural disasters. We discuss on how to apply IT communication technology in disseminating information for public awareness and education to reduce hazard casualty.
19 Jan 2016
A Hydrologically Based Model for Delineating Hazard Zones in the Valleys of Debris Flow Basins
Kaiheng Hu, Pu Li, Yong You, and Fenghuan Su
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-13, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-13, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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The region inundated by a debris-flow event in valleys of a basin depends on its peak discharge and channel topography. The larger the discharge is, the bigger the inundation area is. If we know the discharge at each cross section of the main channel, it can delineate the area reached by debris flow on the both sides of the channel. But, in most cases we can only get the discharge at one downstream section. So, an assumption is made to calculate the discharge at any section from a known section.
19 Jan 2016
Rainfall feature extraction using cluster analysis and its application on displacement prediction for a cleavage-parallel landslide in the Three-Gorges Reservoir area
Y. Liu and L. Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-320, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
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Rainfall is one of the most important factors controlling landslide deformation and failure. It is not trivial to diligently incorporate rainfall data in landslide prediction due to its large quantity, tremendous variety, and wealth multiplicity of rainfall data. We present three rainfall data representations (original daily rainfall, monthly rainfall, and cluster analysis extracted rainfall features) to forecast landslide displacement.
15 Jan 2016
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: Different natural hazard areas
K. J. Beven, S. Almeida, W. P. Aspinall, P. D. Bates, S. Blazkova, E. Borgomeo, K. Goda, J. C. Phillips, M. Simpson, P. J. Smith, D. B. Stephenson, T. Wagener, M. Watson, and K. L. Wilkins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-295, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-295, 2016
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. This is Part 2 of 2 papers reviewing these epistemic uncertainties and covers different areas of natural hazards including landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. It is based on the work of the UK CREDIBLE research consortium.
15 Jan 2016
Dynamic variability examination of Mediterranean frontogenesis: teleconnection of fronts and flood 2010
B. A. Munir, H. A. Imran, and I. Ashraf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2015-290, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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The meteorological phenomena are now a days changing their behavior as they do in the past. Among these phenomenon, fronts are most important. Meteorological fronts are directly related to the extreme weather generation over a huge geographical extent. The research shows that during a period of 1.5 years, these phenomenon show a hasty behavior with an upper latitudinal shift. However, these process shows their persistent existence in the mid-latitudes.
21 Dec 2015
An extended stochastic method for seismic hazard estimation
A. K. Abd el-aal, M. A. El-Eraki, and S. I. Mostafa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 7555–7586, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7555-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7555-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In this work, a new extended stochastic simulation technique is developed basing on the stochastic method of Boore (2003) to simulate ground motion in order to minimize future earthquake consequences. This method is applied here to simulate the expected ground motion at some sites in the north-eastern part of Egypt. The results of the simulation give the highest hazardous effect at the south-eastern and the southern parts of the study area. The hazard is diminishes to the north of the study area
07 Dec 2015
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of the issues
K. J. Beven, W. P. Aspinall, P. D. Bates, E. Borgomeo, K. Goda, J. W. Hall, T. Page, J. C. Phillips, J. T. Rougier, M. Simpson, D. B. Stephenson, P. J. Smith, T. Wagener, and M. Watson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 7333–7377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7333-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7333-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. This is Part 1 of 2 papers reviewing these epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities. It is based on the work of the CREDIBLE research consortium on Risk and Uncertainty in Natural Hazards.
27 Nov 2015
Large scale landslide susceptibility assessment using the statistical methods of logistic regression and BSA – study case: the sub-basin of the small Niraj (Transylvania Depression, Romania)
S. Roşca, Ş. Bilaşco, D. Petrea, I. Fodorean, I. Vescan, S. Filip, and F.–L. Măguţ
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 7171–7201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7171-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7171-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The present study focuses on the application of two quantitative models: the logistic and the Bivariate Statistical Analysis models. The comparative analysis of the results aims at identifying the most suitable model. The territory corresponding to the Niraj Mic Basin (87 km2) is an area characterised by a wide variety of the landforms with their morphometric, morphographical and geological characteristics as well as by a high complexity of the land use types where active landslides exist.
18 Nov 2015
Evaluation of the initial stage of the reactivated Cotopaxi volcano – analysis of the first ejected fine-grained material
T. Toulkeridis, C. R. Arroyo, M. Cruz D'Howitt, A. Debut, A. V. Vaca, L. Cumbal, F. Mato, and E. Aguilera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 6947–6976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6947-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6947-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
04 Nov 2015
Exploration of diffusion kernel density estimation in agricultural drought risk analysis: a case study in Shandong, China
W. Chen, Z. Shao, and L. K. Tiong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 6757–6789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6757-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6757-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In the paper, a Standardized Precipitation Index-based drought risk study is conducted. Kernel density based method is adopted to carry out the risk analysis. The results show that using the Diffusion Kernel function to analyze agricultural drought will eventually help the financial institutes determine compensation by providing a reference for identifying regional drought risk vulnerability, and offer important technological support for drought management for government.
21 Oct 2015
Approaches for delineating landslide hazard areas using receiver operating characteristic in an advanced calibrating precision soil erosion model
P. T. Ghazvinei, J. Zandi, J. Ariffin, R. B. Hashim, S. Motamedi, N. Aghamohammadi, and D. A. Moghaddam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 6321–6349, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6321-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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Correlation analysis was conducted to investigate the “Receiver Operating Characteristic” and frequency ratio. Results showed a satisfactory correlation between the prepared RUSLE-based soil erosion map and actual landslide distribution. The proposed model can effectively predict the landslide events in soil-erosion area. Such a reliable predictive model is an effective management facility for the regional landslide forecasting system.
02 Oct 2015
Setting up the critical rainfall line for debris flows via support vector machines
Y. F. Tsai, C. H. Chan, and C. H. Chang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 5957–5975, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5957-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5957-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
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Firstly, 8 predisposing factors of debris flow were used to cluster 377 streams which have similar rainfall lines into 7 groups via the genetic algorithm. Then, support vector machines (SVM) were applied to setup the critical rainfall line for debris flows.
29 Sep 2015
Effectiveness and efficiency of slot-check dam system on debris flow control
Y. H. Zou and X. Q. Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 5777–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5777-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5777-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
24 Sep 2015
Integrated statistical modelling of spatial landslide probability
M. Mergili and H.-J. Chu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 5677–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5677-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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We propose a procedure to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability, combining release and propagation. The zonal release probability is introduced to correct the pixel-based release probability for the size of the release zone relevant for a pixel. For a test area in Taiwan we observe that the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed landslides and that the size of the release zone influences the result to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability.
08 Sep 2015
Review Article: Storm Britta in 2006: offshore damage and large waves in the North Sea
A. J. Kettle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 5493–5510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5493-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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The Britta storm of 31 Oct-1 Nov 2006 was damaging for offshore and coastal infrastructure in the North Sea. A series of ship and offshore platform difficulties were registered from the northern North Sea and progressed southwards to the German/Dutch coast over 12 h with records of rogue waves. The FINO1 research platform off the German coast was damaged, but its surviving meteorological and oceanographic instrumentation give a unique profile of the severe conditions during the storm.
04 Sep 2015
Brief Communication: Use of field test kit for detection of lead in drinking water in Philippines post the disaster typhoon Haiyan
K. Y. Liu, L. M. Cong, Z. J. Lan, R. P. Ma, L. Yu, Q. Song, Y. F. Wang, S. Ren, B. N. Lu, R. S. Deng, G. R. Li, and W. P. Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 5287–5295, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5287-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5287-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 0 comments)
Short summary
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In the work, we report the quality of drinking water samples collected by the Chinese rescue team in Philippines after the super typhoon Haiyan which made landfall on November 8, 2013. The levels of lead in most of the collected water samples exceeded WHO's standard. The WHO and local government were seriously concerned about the result, and had taken series of measures to improve the water quality in next few months. This is the first report about water quality in Philippines after the typhoon
26 Aug 2015
Evaluation of social vulnerability to floods in Huaihe River basin: a methodology based on catastrophe theory
W. J. You and Y. L. Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 4937–4965, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4937-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4937-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
Short summary
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Social vulnerability as a basic attribute attached to urban environment, with significant changes from city to city across the Huaihe River basin. Different distribution characteristics are present in population, economy, flood prevention vulnerability. Social vulnerability can reflect the level of urban floods to a certain extent
19 Aug 2015
A numerical study of the early stages of a tropical cyclogenesis in relation to the MJO
J. Guerbette, M. Plu, C. Barthe, and J.-F. Mahfouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 4919–4935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4919-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4919-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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Active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are known to favour the formation of tropical cyclones in the South-West Indian Ocean. A meso-scale numerical simulation of a tropical cyclogenesis during such an event is investigated. A large-scale Equatorial jet that is associated with the active phase of the MJO is shown to play a major role on the early stage of the cyclogenesis, through a transfer of kinetic energy from the jet to the cyclone.
17 Aug 2015
Landslide inventory development in a data sparse region: spatial and temporal characteristics of landslides in Papua New Guinea
J. C. Robbins and M. G. Petterson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 4871–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4871-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4871-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This paper outlines approaches for developing a regional landslide inventory in a data sparse region, with a specific focus on Papua New Guinea (PNG). In addition, analyses of landslide events which occurred in PNG between 1970 and 2013 are reviewed in detail. Results show that there is a strong climatic control on landslide-triggering events (at a range of temporal and spatial scales) and that the majority of landslides in the PNG landslide inventory are initiated by rainfall related triggers.
03 Aug 2015
Teaching disaster preparedness via a mobile device: a study of Auckland Civil Defence's Smartphone Application
O. Kulemeka
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 4555–4583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4555-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4555-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 0 comments)
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This study of a New Zealand city's disaster preparedness smartphone application aimed to ascertain if it matched what experts say are effective ways of teaching disaster preparedness and teaching via an app. Results show that the app addressed most factors that hinder preparedness, excelled as a platform for learning, and communicated effectively. Weaknesses include the fact that it lacked targeted information for low-income people. The study shows how apps can assist with disaster education.
22 Jun 2015
Representative rainfall thresholds for flash floods in the Cali river watershed, Colombia
A. D. Ávila, Y. E. Carvajal, and F. Justino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 4095–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4095-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-4095-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
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Tropical regions, such as the South America Andes and mountainous countries, are highly susceptible to floods and flash floods due to environmental and socio-economic characteristics. In this study, critical thresholds of daily accumulated rainfall for the prediction of flash floods in the Cali River basin are proposed. These findings can shed some light on hydrologic behavior, and provide decision-making criteria for water resource planners to aid in the prevention and mitigation strategies.
12 Jun 2015
TITAN2F: a pseudo-3-D model of 2-phase debris flows
G. Córdoba, M. F. Sheridan, and E. B. Pitman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 3789–3822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-3789-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-3789-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This paper shows the development of Two-Phase-Titan (Titan2F), aimed for modeling a wide range of debris flows. The new mathematical approach allows to predict the evolution in space and time of depth, the velocities, speed, particle concentration and dynamic pressure. As input the program only requires the initial volume of material and the initial volumetric fraction of solids.
The program predictions fits within 10% of tested analytical and field data.
22 May 2015
Review Article: Explosive cyclogenesis over the south-east of Romania 2–3 December 2012
M. Bratu and C. Nichita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 3449–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-3449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-3449-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 0 comments)
Short summary
11 May 2015
Spatial analysis of damaged vegetation in the Mianyuan River basin after the Wenchuan Earthquake
H. Z. Zhang, J. R. Fan, X. M. Wang, T. H. Chi, and L. Peng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 3225–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-3225-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-3225-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake destroyed large areas of vegetation. Presently, these areas of damaged vegetation are at various stages of recovery. In this study, we present a probabilistic approach for slope stability analysis that quantitatively relates data on earthquake-damaged vegetation with slope stability in a given river basin. Presently, these recovered vegetation helped stabilize the slopes. Nevertheless, there remains potential for future slope instability in these recovered areas.
30 Apr 2015
Point release wet snow avalanches
C. Vera Valero, Y. Bühler, and P. Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 2883–2912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2883-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2883-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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Wet snow avalanches can initiate from large fracture slabs or small point releases. Point
release wet snow avalanches can reach dangerous proportions when they initiate on steep and long avalanche paths and entrain warm moist snow. In this paper we investigate the dynamics of point release wet snow avalanches by applying a numerical model to simulate documented case studies on high altitude slopes in the Chilean Andes. The model simulated correctly flow height, velocity and avalanche run out.
15 Apr 2015
Movement of the Donglingxin landslide, China, induced by reservoir inundation and rainfall
J. Yu, R. B. Wang, W. Y. Xu, L. Yan, J. C. Zhang, and Q. X. Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 2537–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2537-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
Short summary
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In case of the Donglingxin landslide, for an in-depth study of processes that can trigger these events, the deformation characteristics and the failure mechanisms of the slope were performed on a detail scale, based on an intensive monitoring of rainfall events, reservoir level fluctuation and groundwater movement. The deformation of the upper part of slope is mainly induced by rainfall events, reservoir level fluctuation affects the deformation of the lower part of slope.
14 Apr 2015
New estimates of potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal floods in Poland
D. Paprotny and P. Terefenko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 2493–2536, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2493-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
01 Apr 2015
An assessment of the potential of earth observation data to detect and monitor storm cells associated with natural hazards – an application to an extreme weather event in southeastern Mediterranean
T. Mavrakou and C. Cartalis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 2191–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2191-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2191-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
31 Mar 2015
Assess arsenic distribution in groundwater applying GIS in capital of Punjab, Pakistan
M. M. Akhtar, T. Zhonghua, Z. Sissou, and B. Mohamadi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 2119–2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2119-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2119-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
06 Mar 2015
Landslide susceptibility mapping in Mawat area, Kurdistan Region, NE Iraq: a comparison of different statistical models
A. A. Othman, R. Gloaguen, L. Andreani, and M. Rahnama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 1789–1833, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-1789-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-1789-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
24 Feb 2015
Laboratory experiments on rainfall-induced flowslide from pore pressure and moisture content measurements
M. R. Hakro and I. S. H. Harahap
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 1575–1613, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-1575-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-1575-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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From the current study it was observed that density of soil slope is more important that controls the initiation of rainfall-induced flowslide.
The pore pressure is related to velocity of sliding mass and by installing the moisture sensors at the shallow depth especially from toe to mid of the slope early warning can be issued. Even with high rainfall intensity and antecedent moisture conditions the flowslide or major failure was not occurred in the case of dense slope.
05 Feb 2015
Landslide susceptibility analysis by means of event-based multi-temporal landslide inventories
C. M. Tseng, C. W. Lin, and W. D. Hsieh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 1137–1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-1137-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-1137-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 9 comments)
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This study applies landslide inventory of a single typhoon and WOE analysis to establish landslide susceptibility model. We apply multi-temporal satellite images to map four different scales of event-based new landslide inventories. The most suitable typhoon scale to establish an optimal model is discussed. The prediction accuracy of the landslide susceptibility map in this study shows the advantage of a model established by using an event-based landslide inventory.
05 Feb 2015
Modelling of the hydrological connectivity changes in the Minjiang Upstream after the Wenchuan earthquake using satellite remote sensing and DEM data
H. Z. Zhang, T. H. Chi, and J. R. Fan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 1113–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-1113-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-1113-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 11 comments)
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We model hydrological connectivity index (HCI) to detect the hydrologic processes changes with the landslide-damaged vegetation recovery in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area, and the HCI results indicated that HCI obviously increased after the earthquake, and HCI decreased annually with the vegetation recovery. We consider that the lowest rainfall intensity and rainfall amount for debris flow initiation would rise up annually with HCI decreases and vegetation recovery.
22 Jan 2015
Formation time and mean movement velocities of the 7 August Zhouqu debris flows extracted from broadband seismic records
Z. Li, X. Huang, Q. Xu, J. Fan, D. Yu, Z. Hao, and X. Qiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 675–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-675-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-675-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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In this manuscript, the actual formation time of the August 7th Zhouqu debris flows is determined to be 23:33:10 using time-by-time normalized spectrograms of broadband seismic records for the first time. Seismic signals corresponding to the maturity stage are further divided into four sub-stages. Combined with the satellite image of the Sanyanyu flow path, the mean movement velocities of the Sanyanyu debris flow during sub-stages 2 and 3 are estimated to be 9.2 m/s and 9.7 m/s respectively.
20 Jan 2015
Predictive analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Kao-Ping watershed, Taiwan under climate change conditions
K. J. Shou, C. C. Wu, and J. F. Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 575–606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-575-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-575-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling to estimate the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the Kao-Ping River watershed. The rainfall estimates were introduced in the landslide susceptibility model to produce the predictive landslide susceptibility for various rainfall scenarios, including abnormal climate conditions. The results can be used for hazard mitigation and management.
20 Jan 2015
Assessment of impact of mass movements on the upper Tayyah valley's bridge along Shear escarpment highway, Asir region (Saudi Arabia) using remote sensing data and field investigation
A. M. Youssef, M. Al-Kathery, and B. Pradhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 497–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-497-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-497-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
16 Jan 2015
The development of mountain risk governance: challenges for application
S. Link and J. Stötter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 429–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-429-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-429-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
Short summary
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The complexity the management of mountain risks in the Alps has considerably increased since the late nineteenth century. In history, four successive paradigms to dealing with mountain risks can be distinguished: “hazard protection”, “hazard management”, “risk management”, and “risk governance”. Based on a historical analysis, the suitability and applicability of general risk governance frameworks in the specific context of mountain risks are discussed and necessary adaptations are proposed.
09 Jan 2015
Brief Communication: Is there a wind connection to freaque wave occurrences?
P. C. Liu, R. Bouchard, W. E. Rogers, A. V. Babanin, and D. W. Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 319–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-319-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-319-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
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There was a recent freaque wave encounter near Scituate, Massachusetts by a local transport ferry en route from Provincetown to Boston. The encounter resulted in minimal damages, fortunately, and provided us a chance to examine a possible connection between the freaque wave occurrence and the ambient wind field, since the place of encounter was in the vicinity of a NOAA NDBC buoy where wind and wave data were recorded. in this paper we present a brief analysis.
08 Jan 2015
The alerting system for hydrogeological hazard in Lombardy Region, northern Italy: rainfall thresholds triggering debris-flows and "equivalent rainfall" method
A. Cucchi, I. Q. Valsecchi, M. Alberti, P. Fassi, M. Molari, and G. Mannucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 269–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-269-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-269-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
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The Functional Centre (Civil Protection, Lombardy region, Italy), from landslide data in Valtellina, developed a physically consistent model of the critical detachment rainfall, in function of the local slope and the Curve Number. The “equivalent rainfall” method, which considers both observed and forecasted rainfall (in order to take into account the soil antecedent moisture conditions), allows to display hydrogeological hazard maps, useful to provide a reliable and localized alerting activity.
07 Jan 2015
Improvement of shallow landslide prediction accuracy using soil parameterisation for a granite area in South Korea
M. S. Kim, Y. Onda, and J. K. Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 227–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-227-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-227-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
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The accuracy of shallow landslide prediction based on SHALSTAB model varying the input soil data was examined. Soil parameters calculated from a stochastic hydro-geomorphological model were applied to the SHALSTAB model. Results showed that the use of soil properties reflecting soil thickness can improve the accuracy of shallow landslide prediction.
05 Jan 2015
Measuring county resilience after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake
X. Li, N. Lam, Y. Qiang, K. Li, L. Yin, S. Liu, and W. Zheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 81–122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-81-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-81-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
22 Dec 2014
Earthquake-induced deformation estimation of earth dam by multitemporal SAR interferometry: the Mornos Dam case (Central Greece)
S. Neokosmidis, P. Elias, I. Parcharidis, and P. Briole
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 7807–7835, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-7807-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-7807-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
05 Dec 2014
Geomorphological surveys and software simulations for rock fall hazard assessment: a case study in the Italian Alps
S. Devoto, C. Boccali, and F. Podda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 7329–7365, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-7329-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-7329-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 8 comments)
Short summary
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This work investigates the appraisal of the rock-fall hazard related to the presence of several large unstable blocks located at the top of a limestone peak located in the Italian portion of southern Alps.
A multidisciplinary approach was applied and includes geomorphological surveys and computer simulations.
The simulation outputs regarding the distribution of rock fall end points and kinetic energy highlight the high hazard for a village located at the bottom of the peak.
18 Nov 2014
Brief Communication: Freaque wave occurrences in 2013
P. C. Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 7017–7025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-7017-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-7017-2014, 2014
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
Short summary
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This paper presents a compilation of freaque waves happenings in 2013 based on informations available mainly on the internet search engine. All the data were confined to the year 2013 only.
14 Oct 2014
Environmental impacts of human action in watercourses
J. S. Antunes do Carmo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 6499–6530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-6499-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-6499-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
14 Oct 2014
Estimate of ULF electromagnetic noise caused by a fluid flow during seismic or volcano activity
V. V. Surkov and V. A. Pilipenko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 6475–6497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-6475-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-6475-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
08 Sep 2014
Geotechnical stability analysis, fragility of structures and velocity of movement to assess landslides vulnerability
O. Cuanalo, E. Bernal, and G. Polanco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 5689–5720, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5689-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5689-2014, 2014
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
28 Aug 2014
Susceptibility assessment of landslides under extreme-rainfall events using hydro-geotechnical model; a case study of Umyeonsan (Mt.), Korea
S. S. Jeong, J. H. Kim, Y. M. Kim, and D. H. Bae
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 5575–5601, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5575-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5575-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
20 Aug 2014
Estimating high quantiles of extreme flood heights in the lower Limpopo River basin of Mozambique using model based Bayesian approach
D. Maposa, J. J. Cochran, M. Lesaoana, and C. Sigauke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 5401–5425, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5401-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5401-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
14 Aug 2014
Floods in the Niger basin – analysis and attribution
V. Aich, B. Koné, F. F. Hattermann, and E. N. Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 5171–5212, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5171-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5171-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
04 Aug 2014
Safe-economical route model of a ship to avoid tropical cyclones using dynamic forecast environment
L. Wu, Y. Wen, D. Wu, J. Zhang, and C. Xiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 4907–4945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4907-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4907-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
31 Jul 2014
Process-related deformation monitoring by PSI using high resolution space-based SAR data: a case study in Düsseldorf, Germany
D. Liu, A. Sowter, and W. Niemeier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 4813–4830, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4813-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4813-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
28 Jul 2014
Geohazard risk assessment using high resolution SAR interferometric techniques: a case study of Larissa National Airport Central Greece
F. Fakhri and R. Kalliola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 4743–4763, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4743-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4743-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
23 Jul 2014
An assessment of fire occurrence regime and performance of Canadian fire weather index in south central Siberian boreal region
T. Chu and X. Guo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 4711–4742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4711-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4711-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
21 Jul 2014
Determination of the runoff threshold for triggering debris flows in the area affected by the Wenchuan Earthquake
P. Cui, X. J. Guo, and J. Q. Zhuang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 4659–4684, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4659-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4659-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
26 Jun 2014
A theoretical model for the initiation of debris flow in unconsolidated soil under hydrodynamic conditions
C.-X. Guo, J.-W. Zhou, P. Cui, M.-H. Hao, and F.-G. Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 4487–4524, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4487-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
24 Jun 2014
Study on multi-parameters of thermal infrared remote sensing anomalies of the Yushu earthquake
X. Lu, Q. Y. Meng, X. F. Gu, X. D. Zhang, P. Xiong, W. Y. Ma, and T. Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 4439–4462, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4439-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4439-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 10 comments)
06 Jun 2014
The slope seismic response monitoring of Wenchuan aftershocks in Qingchuan
Y. H. Luo, R. Huang, and Y. Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 4135–4161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-4135-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
05 Jun 2014
Fracture network characterisation of a landslide by electrical resistivity tomography
S. Szalai, K. Szokoli, A. Novák, Á. Tóth, M. Metwaly, and E. Prácser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 3965–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-3965-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-3965-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
27 May 2014
Investigating factors for disaster preparedness among residents of Kuala Lumpur
E. Mohammad-pajooh and K. Ab. Aziz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 3683–3709, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-3683-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-3683-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
16 May 2014
Anomalies of zenith tropospheric delay following the Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii earthquake
Y. B. Yao, X. X. Lei, Q. Liu, C. Y. He, B. Zhang, and L. Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 3533–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-3533-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-3533-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
14 May 2014
Numerical modelling of tsunami wave run-up and breaking within a two-dimensional atmosphere–ocean two-layer model
S. P. Kshevetskii and I. S. Vereshchagina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 3397–3421, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-3397-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-3397-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
05 May 2014
Statistical similarity between high energy charged particle fluxes in near-earth space and earthquakes
P. Wang, Z. Chang, H. Wang, and H. Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 3183–3192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-3183-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-3183-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
30 Apr 2014
Signatures of the self-affinity of fracture and faulting in pre-seismic electromagnetic emissions
S. M. Potirakis, K. Eftaxias, G. Balasis, J. Kopanas, G. Antonopoulos, and A. Kalimeris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 2981–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2981-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2981-2014, 2014
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
28 Apr 2014
Characterizing configurations of fire ignition points through spatiotemporal point processes
C. Comas, S. Costafreda-Aumedes, and C. Vega-Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 2891–2911, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2891-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2891-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
24 Apr 2014
Brief Communication: Correlation of global earthquake rates with temperature and sunspot cycle
R. Rajesh and R. K. Tiwari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 2851–2867, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2851-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2851-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
10 Apr 2014
Integration of HVSR measures and stratigraphic constraints for seismic microzonation studies: the case of Oliveri (ME)
P. Di Stefano, D. Luzio, P. Renda, R. Martorana, P. Capizzi, A. D'Alessandro, N. Messina, G. Napoli, S. Todaro, and G. Zarcone
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 2597–2637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2597-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2597-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
09 Apr 2014
Shear wave velocity by support vector machine based on geotechnical soil properties
I. Shooshpasha, A. Kordnaeij, U. Dikmen, H. MolaAbasi, and I. Amir
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 2443–2461, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2443-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2443-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
31 Mar 2014
Evaluation of changes in different climates of Iran, using De Martonne index and Mann–Kendall trend test
A. R. Zareiee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 2245–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2245-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2245-2014, 2014
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
25 Mar 2014
A two-phase model for numerical simulation of debris flows
S. He, W. Liu, C. Ouyang, and X. Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 2151–2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2151-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2151-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
03 Feb 2014
Evaluating intense precipitation in high-resolution numerical model over a tropical island: impact of model horizontal resolution
N. Yu, C. Barthe, and M. Plu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 999–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-999-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-999-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
30 Jan 2014
Earthquake and hurricane coupling is ascertained by ground-based laser interferometer and satellite observing techniques
M. N. Dubrov, V. A. Volkov, and S. P. Golovachev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 935–961, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-935-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-935-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
29 Jan 2014
Classification of homoclinic rogue wave solutions of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation
A. R. Osborne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 897–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-897-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-897-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
23 Jan 2014
Updating knowledge of cyclonic wave hazard for Tahiti and Moorea Islands (French Polynesia) through a probabilistic approach
S. Lecacheux, T. Bulteau, and R. Pedreros
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 725–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-725-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-725-2014, 2014
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
21 Jan 2014
An evaluation of influential factors on landslide mobility during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake
D. P. Guo, M. Hamada, and C. He
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 613–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-613-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-613-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 13 comments)
17 Jan 2014
Mapping of extreme wind speed for landscape modelling of the Bohemian Forest, Czech Republic
L. Pop, D. Hanslian, and J. Hošek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 361–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-361-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-361-2014, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
07 Jan 2014
Brief communication"Estimating rockfall frequency in a mountain limestone cliff using terrestrial laser scanner"
A. Guerin, D. Hantz, J.-P. Rossetti, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 123–135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-123-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-123-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
03 Jan 2014
Quantitative spatial analysis of rockfalls from road inventories: a combined statistical and physical susceptibility model
M. Böhme, M.-H. Derron, and M. Jaboyedoff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 81–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-81-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-81-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
16 Dec 2013
An attempt to deal with flash floods using a probabilistic hydrological nowcasting chain: a case study
F. Silvestro, N. Rebora, and G. Cummings
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 7497–7515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-7497-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-7497-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
05 Dec 2013
Temporal and spatial variability of extreme snowfall indices over northern Xinjiang from 1959/1960 to 2008/2009
S. P. Wang, F. Q. Jiang, R. J. Hu, and Y. W. Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 7059–7092, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-7059-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-7059-2013, 2013
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
15 Nov 2013
Multilinear approach to the precipitation–lightning relationship: a case study of summer local electrical storms in the northern part of Spain during 2002–2009 period
I. Herrero, A. Ezcurra, J. Areitio, J. Diaz-Argandoña, G. Ibarra-Berastegi, and J. Saenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 6467–6498, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-6467-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-6467-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
01 Nov 2013
Modelling extreme flood hazard events on the middle Yellow River using DFLOW-flexible mesh approach
M. Castro Gama, I. Popescu, A. Mynett, L. Shengyang, and A. van Dam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 6061–6092, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-6061-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-6061-2013, 2013
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
31 Oct 2013
Application of a hybrid approach in nonstationary flood frequency analysis – a Polish perspective
K. Kochanek, W. G. Strupczewski, E. Bogdanowicz, W. Feluch, and I. Markiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 6001–6024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-6001-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-6001-2013, 2013
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
22 Oct 2013
Combining earthquakes and GPS data to estimate the probability of future earthquakes with magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0
K.-P. Chen, Y.-B. Tsai, and W.-Y. Chang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 5729–5752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-5729-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-5729-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 5 comments)
16 Oct 2013
Study of the 2013 Lushan M = 7.0 earthquake coseismic ionospheric disturbances
P. Chen, J. J. Chen, W. Q. Yao, and B. Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 5643–5662, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-5643-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-5643-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 3 comments)
30 Aug 2013
Source model of 18 September 2004 Huntoon Valley earthquake estimated from InSAR
W. J. Lee, Z. Lu, H. S. Jung, and L. Y. Ji
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 4287–4304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-4287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-4287-2013, 2013
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
06 Aug 2013
Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike
J. M. Kim, P. K. Woods, Y. J. Park, and K. Son
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 3813–3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-3813-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-3813-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
23 Jul 2013
Predicting the hurricane damage ratio of commercial buildings by claim payout from Hurricane Ike
J. M. Kim, P. K. Woods, Y. J. Park, T. H. Kim, J. S. Choi, and K. Son
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 3449–3483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-3449-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-3449-2013, 2013
Manuscript not accepted for further review (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
29 May 2013
Quasi-synchronous ionospheric and surface latent heat flux anomalies before the 2007 Pu'er earthquake in China
K. Qin, L. X. Wu, X. Y. Ouyang, X. H. Shen, and S. Zheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 2439–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-2439-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-2439-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
28 May 2013
Numerical analysis of earthquake response of an ultra-high earth-rockfill dam
W. X. Dong, W. J. Xu, Y. Z. Yu, and H. Lv
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 2319–2351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-2319-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-2319-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
24 May 2013
European education on natural disasters – a textbook study
B. Komac, M. Zorn, and R. Ciglič
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 2255–2279, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-2255-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-2255-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 6 comments)
22 May 2013
Public participation in recovery after earthquakes in Friuli (NE Italy) and the Upper Soča Valley (NW Slovenia) in 1976, 1998, and 2004
P. Pipan and M. Zorn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 2231–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-2231-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-2231-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
15 May 2013
Uncovering the 2010 Haiti earthquake death toll
J. E. Daniell, B. Khazai, and F. Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 1913–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1913-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1913-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 7 comments)
14 May 2013
Safe-economical route and its assessment model of a ship to avoid tropical cyclones using dynamic forecast environment
L. C. Wu, Y. Q. Wen, and D. Y. Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 1857–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1857-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1857-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
08 May 2013
Tsunami hazard in La Réunion island from numerical modeling of historical events
E. Quentel, A. Loevenbruck, H. Hébert, and S. Allgeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 1823–1855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1823-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1823-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
24 Apr 2013
Estimation of the effects of climate change on flood-triggered economic losses in Japan
S. Tezuka, H. Takiguchi, S. Kazama, R. Sarukkalige, A. Sato, and S. Kawagoe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 1619–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1619-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1619-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
22 Apr 2013
Intercomparison and validation of building damage assessments based on post-Haiti 2010 earthquake imagery using multi-source reference data
G. Lemoine, C. Corbane, C. Louvrier, and M. Kauffmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 1445–1486, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1445-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1445-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
11 Mar 2013
Reconstruction of the 1945 Wieringermeer Flood
O. A. C. Hoes, R. W. Hut, N. C. van de Giesen, and M. Boomgaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 417–441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-417-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-417-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted (discussion: closed, 2 comments)
04 Mar 2013
Application of a hybrid model of neural networks and genetic algorithms to evaluate landslide susceptibility
H. B. Wang, J. W. Li, B. Zhou, Z. Q. Yuan, and Y. P. Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 353–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-353-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-353-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
20 Feb 2013
Flood hazard in the Mekong Delta – a probabilistic, bivariate, and non-stationary analysis with a short-termed future perspective
N. V. Dung, B. Merz, A. Bárdossy, and H. Apel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 275–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-275-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-275-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 4 comments)
29 Jan 2013
Comparing multi-criteria methods for landslide susceptibility mapping in Chania Prefecture, Crete Island, Greece
M. Kouli, C. Loupasakis, P. Soupios, D. Rozos, and F. Vallianatos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1, 73–109, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-73-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-73-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted (discussion: closed, 9 comments)